thetaOwl

AMD

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.Close $537.37EOD only
Max Pain
$500.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$44.00
8.2% from close
Price Gap
-37.37
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
1.14
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 18, 2026 close
AMD Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 22, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

AMD earnings with high IV and heavy put flow; 80% beat rate but put hedging dominates.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 9.2% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Put wall at $550/$540 in weekly expirations signals downside positioning.
⚠️Put dominance in weekly suggests caution near-term.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$390.00Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,313 (29.3% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-08-04 (43 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (4d): ±$39.88 (7.2%)
  • 2026-07-02 (10d): ±$56.17 (10.2%)
  • 2026-07-10 (18d): ±$71.40 (12.9%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Upward sloping; short-term IV elevated.

Crush estimate: Expected IV crush ~40-50% post-event.

Skew: Put skew elevated; heavy put OI in weekly.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Avg move near implied; beat rate 80%.

Directional bias: Slightly bullish historically but current flow mixed.

Key Levels

1$390.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $495.46/$607.81
3Max pain pins: $505 (2026-06-26); $495 (2026-07-02); $495 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Heavy put volume on $550 and $540 strikes for 6/26

Aggressive downside positioning or hedging ahead of earnings.

Strategies

Long Straddle on AMD
Buy 2026-08-21 $550.00 put + buy $550.00 call
Debit: $122.85-$150.15
Max loss: $150.15
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 399.85 / 700.15
Trigger: Close if stock moves less than premium paid; monitor IV crush post-event.
80% beat rate and high IV suggest large move potential; straddle captures full gamma.
Outperforms: Buys both call and put at-the-money to profit from large move regardless of direction.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.
Long Strangle on AMD
Buy 2026-08-21 $530.00 put + buy $560.00 call
Debit: $109.48-$133.81
Max loss: $133.81
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 396.19 / 693.81
Trigger: Adjust wings if direction becomes clear; exit if move insufficient.
Wider strikes reduce premium cost but require larger move; suitable for hedging.
Outperforms: Out-of-the-money options for cheaper premium but higher breakeven.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.

Risk Assessment

!Put volume ratio elevated (1.09 P/C volume).
!Gamma flip level ~$390 indicates downside risk.
!Spot above max pain may attract pinning.

What to Watch

?Max pain $505 (6/26) and $495 (7/2).
?Earnings on 8/4; 43 days away.
?VIX at 17; keep an eye on vol regime.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.