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AMD

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.Close $476.15EOD only
Max Pain
$485.00
Next expiry Aug 3, 2026
Expected Move
±$9.90
2.1% from close
Price Gap
+8.85
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
30
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.20
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jul 31, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jul 31, 2026 close
AMD Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 18, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 18, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

AMD setup ahead of 8/4 earnings shows bullish flow, high IV, and historical beat rate advantage.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 67.9% from MP; +1 VIX 16
Most important: Net call premium of $571M and elevated IV in 8/16 options indicate positioning for upside.
📈Net premium $571M, call dominance.
⚠️IV 80% for 8/16, implying ±11.5% move.
✅80% beat rate historically supports bull case.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$390.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,303 (27.4% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-08-04 (47 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (8d): ±$44.00 (8.2%)
  • 2026-07-02 (14d): ±$58.03 (10.8%)
  • 2026-07-10 (22d): ±$71.55 (13.3%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Upward sloping, front-week IV ~80%, back-month ~50%.

Crush estimate: Expected ~40-50% IV crush post-earnings.

Skew: Put skew elevated in 8/16 expiration.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Average move 1.2x implied.

Directional bias: Slightly bullish (80% beat rate).

Key Levels

1$390.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $493.37/$581.37
3Max pain pins: $320 (2026-06-18); $500 (2026-06-26); $495 (2026-07-02)

Flow Highlights

Unusual call activity on 8/16 $535 strike (6,876 vol, 19x OI).

Bullish positioning for earnings.

Strategies

Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-08-21 $530.00/$560.00 call spread
Debit: $11.47-$14.03
Max loss: $14.03
Max gain: $15.97
BE: $544.03
Trigger: Exit if stock breaks below $500 invalidation level.
Aligns with $571M net call premium and 80% beat rate; defined risk, liquid options.
Outperforms: Captures upside with spread limiting loss; entry $530/$560 call spread.
Underperforms: Loss of support weakens upside continuation thesis.
Long Strangle
Buy 2026-08-21 $520.00 put + buy $560.00 call
Debit: $104.35-$127.55
Max loss: $127.55
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 392.45 / 687.55
Trigger: Manage gamma risk; consider early exit if move occurs pre-earnings.
Avg move 1.2x implied and elevated IV make long vol attractive; cheaper than straddle.
Outperforms: Buys put and call to profit from large move regardless of direction.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.
Iron Condor
Sell 2026-07-24 $495.00/$410.00 put wing and $625.00/$750.00 call wing
Credit: $31.70-$38.75
Max loss: $86.25
Max gain: $38.75
BE: 456.25 / 663.75
Trigger: Close if stock approaches $495 or $625; watch for IV crush. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Volume below 5.; long_call: Volume below 5.
High IV and upward term structure favor selling premium; assumes range-bound price action.
Outperforms: Sells put and call wings to collect premium with defined risk.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Short strangle
Sell 2026-07-24 $495.00 put + sell $625.00 call
Credit: $43.04-$52.61
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $52.61
BE: 442.39 / 677.61
Elevated IV (80% front-week) provides attractive premium; 80% beat rate but risk of large move.
Outperforms: Pre-earnings premium sale expecting limited volatility expansion.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Earnings miss risk despite 80% beat rate.
!High IV may lead to large move.
!Gamma pin at $500 (8/16 max pain).
!Broad tech weakness could offset.

What to Watch

?Spot reaction at $500 support and $595 resistance.
?VIX and QQQ direction.
?Earnings date confirmation on 8/4.
?IV changes in front-month options.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 18, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.