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AMD

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.Close $519.85EOD only
Max Pain
$530.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$33.85
6.5% from close
Price Gap
+10.15
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
24
Low premium
P/C OI
1.17
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 23, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 23, 2026 close
AMD Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 24, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

AMD earnings 41 days out; IV elevated with term structure sloping up; high beat rate supports bullish bias but early stage, watch pinning at $528 and $500 gamma flip.

Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.5% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Gamma flip at ~$390 and max pain pins near $500-$528; heavy unusual call volume on Oct2026 $520 and $522.5 suggests bullish positioning.
⚠️Heavy call buying at $520/$522.5 suggests near-term upside bias, but 41 days to earnings leaves time premium risk.
🛡️$492.5P block indicates hedging below spot; watch if support at $455 fails.
📊Historical beat rate 80% supports bullish case, but spot below max pain ($528) and gamma flip ($500) creates tension.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$390.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,402 (25.0% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-08-04 (41 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (2d): ±$27.82 (5.4%)
  • 2026-07-02 (8d): ±$48.23 (9.3%)
  • 2026-07-10 (16d): ±$63.92 (12.3%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Rising; 2d ±5.4%, 8d ±9.3%, 16d ±12.3%

Crush estimate: Implied volatilities likely compress post-earnings; current 74-85% IV across strikes suggests significant crush.

Skew: Put skew elevated below $500; $290-390 put floor visible in OI concentration.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: 4/5 beats (80%); average move typically exceeds single-straddle expectation.

Directional bias: Slightly bullish given consistent beats, but spot below max pain suggests caution.

Key Levels

1$390.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $491.91/$547.56; 1w $471.51/$567.96
3Max pain pins: $528 (2026-06-26); $500 (2026-07-02); $500 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Unusual call activity: 9,908 vol on $520C (2026-06-26) with 5x OI, alongside 2,647 vol on $522.5C.

Aggressive bullish positioning near max pain, possibly institutional rolling or speculative upside bets.

Large put block: $492.5P (2026-06-26) with 7.3x volume/OI ratio, 2,077 contracts.

Hedging or bearish speculation below current spot; aligns with support ~$455.

Strategies

Bullish Calendar with Crush
Sell 2026-06-26 $527.50 call / buy 2026-07-02 $527.50 call
Debit: $9.36-$11.44
Max loss: $11.44
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Monitor spot near $527.50; adjust if spot moves significantly. Consider early close if IV collapses.
Term structure sloping up; IV crush benefits back-month; bullish call flow supports upside bias.
Outperforms: Sell near-term $527.50 call, buy later-term same strike. Captures term structure and crush, limits downside.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Defined-Risk Neutral
Sell 2026-06-26 $455.00/$452.50 put wing and $527.50/$530.00 call wing
Credit: $0.76-$0.93
Max loss: $1.57
Max gain: $0.93
BE: 454.07 / 528.43
Trigger: Hold to near expiry; exit early if spot breaches wings or IV drops sharply.
Elevated IV and max pain zone; defined risk protects against tail events; high beat rate but early stage.
Outperforms: Sell put and call wings at $455/$452.50 and $527.50/$530.00. Theta decay and crush in narrow range.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Premium Harvest (Unlimited Risk)
Sell 2026-06-26 $455.00 put + sell $527.50 call
Credit: $10.05-$12.28
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $12.28
BE: 442.72 / 539.78
Trigger: Set stop-loss at $390 downside or $530 upside; roll/close if volatility spikes.
Highest premium but unlimited risk; early stage and gamma flip at $390 add tail risk.
Outperforms: Sell $455 put and $527.50 call. Benefits from time decay and crush if spot stays within.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Gamma flip at $390: if spot declines, dealer hedging could accelerate downside.
!High VIX (18.6) adds macro tail risk; tech weakness (QQQ -0.42%) weighs.
!Earnings 41 days out; IV premium decay uncertain; early positioning carries time decay risk.

What to Watch

?Spot vs $528 max pain and $500 gamma flip zone.
?Put OI at $390 and $290 as downside floors.
?Unusual call flow continuity; if volume persists, bullish conviction strengthens.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 24, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.