thetaOwl

AMD

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.Close $519.74EOD only
Max Pain
$527.50
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$27.82
5.3% from close
Price Gap
+7.76
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
25
Low premium
P/C OI
1.18
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
9.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 24, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 24, 2026 close
AMD Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 25, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

AMD 40d from earnings with 80% beat rate. Elevated IV, strong bullish call flow, but put OI heavy. Dealer gamma pinning near $525.

Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.4% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Watch for whether spot holds above $525 gamma flip zone; call flow suggests upside bias.
🛡️Deep OTM put volume signals downside hedging despite bullish calls
📈$550 call block (5k vol) shows institutional bullish conviction

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$390.00Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,466 (26.8% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-08-04 (40 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (1d): ±$18.78 (3.5%)
  • 2026-07-02 (7d): ±$44.35 (8.3%)
  • 2026-07-10 (15d): ±$62.25 (11.7%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steep contango: 1d ±3.5%, 7d ±8.3%, 15d ±11.7%

Crush estimate: Expected ~3.5% move on event; IV crush ~2-3 vol points post-earnings

Skew: Put skew elevated (PCR OI 1.19), but aggressive call buying flattens skew in near-term

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not available

Directional bias: Neutral

Key Levels

1$390.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $513.80/$551.35; 1w $488.22/$576.92
3Max pain pins: $525 (2026-06-26); $502 (2026-07-02); $500 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Deep OTM $290 put volume 4,196 vs OI 106 (39.6x), defensive hedge

Large puts imply downside fear; likely institutional hedge

$550 call volume 5,025 (4x OI) and $600 call volume 3,508

Aggressive bullish bets, targeting further upside

Strategies

Neutral Straddle
Buy 2026-08-21 $520.00 put + buy $520.00 call
Debit: $114.84-$140.36
Max loss: $140.36
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 379.64 / 660.36
Trigger: Close before earnings or adjust if IV collapses.
Captures expected move with high IV and 80% beat rate.
Outperforms: Long ATM straddle to profit from IV expansion and directional move.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.
Wide Strangle
Buy 2026-08-21 $510.00 put + buy $530.00 call
Debit: $106.40-$130.05
Max loss: $130.05
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 379.95 / 660.05
Trigger: Monitor theta decay; adjust strikes if needed.
Lower cost but requires larger move; benefits from high IV.
Outperforms: Long OTM strangle for cheap volatility play.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.

Risk Assessment

!Earnings miss or weak guidance could trigger sharp selloff
!High VIX (19) adds macro uncertainty
!Spot near max pain ($525) may pin until expiration

What to Watch

?Hold above $525 gamma flip level
?Call flow continuation into $550+ strikes
?Macro cues (SPY, QQQ) and VIX direction
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 25, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.