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AMD

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.Close $523.20EOD only
Max Pain
$500.00
Next expiry Jun 5, 2026
Expected Move
±$16.12
3.1% from close
Price Gap
-23.20
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
84
High premium
P/C OI
1.10
Balanced positioning
Consensus
7.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 4, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 4, 2026 close
AMD Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 5, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

AMD earnings 60 days out; 80% beat rate supports bullish, but high IV and bearish flow (net premium -$120M, unusual put buying expiring pre-earnings) warrant caution. Spot below $500 resistance.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 6.7% from MP; +0.5 VIX 22
Most important: Earnings in 60 days; 80% beat rate historically, but bearish options flow and high IV suggest hedging vs. directional play. Note: put buying expires before earnings.
📉Bearish flow: net premium -$120M, put/call OI 1.10, unusual $390 put volume expiring pre-earnings.
📈Historical beat rate 80% supports bullish case, but current positioning suggests short-term bearish bets.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-08-04 (60 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-12 (7d): ±$38.72 (8.3%)
  • 2026-06-18 (13d): ±$52.92 (11.3%)
  • 2026-06-26 (21d): ±$63.55 (13.6%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Upward sloping: 7d expected move 8.3%, 21d 13.6%; earnings uncertainty farther out keeps term steep.

Crush estimate: Post-earnings IV crush expected ~30-40% from pre-event levels, moderate given 60 days out.

Skew: Put skew elevated at 390 put (IV 71.8%) vs. calls; overall skew neutral to slightly bearish.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: N/A (no avg move data; beat rate 80% suggests moves typically exceed implied on upside).

Directional bias: Bullish bias based on 80% beat rate (4/5 quarters).

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 1w $427.66/$505.11
2Max pain pins: $500 (2026-06-05); $492 (2026-06-12); $250 (2026-06-18)

Flow Highlights

Large put buying: 16,610 contracts of AMD 2026-07-02 $390.00 Put (vol/OI 139.6, IV 71.8%) expiring before earnings.

Bearish bet on near-term downside, not an earnings hedge; significant premium ($8.5 avg) indicates conviction.

Negative net premium (-$120M) with put/call OI ratio 1.10, favoring puts.

Overall flow bearish; more put volume and open interest, suggesting hedging or bearish positioning.

Strategies

Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-08-21 $450.00/$490.00 call spread
Debit: $15.17-$18.54
Max loss: $18.54
Max gain: $21.46
BE: $468.54
Trigger: Exit if spot breaks below invalidation level ($413.46) or near earnings; take profit near $490.
Aligns with bullish bias from 80% beat rate, limited downside, and earnings catalyst while avoiding high IV risk of long options.
Outperforms: Captures upside move through earnings with defined risk, resistance at $500 as profit cap.
Underperforms: Loss of support weakens upside continuation thesis.
Short Strangle
Sell 2026-07-17 $430.00 put + sell $550.00 call
Credit: $40.34-$49.31
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $49.31
BE: 380.69 / 599.31
Trigger: Close if spot approaches $430 or $550; monitor put activity at $390.
Leverages high pre-earnings IV and expected range between support and resistance; 80% beat rate supports floor.
Outperforms: Sells premium at elevated IV with wide strikes to profit from time decay if spot stays within range.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Iron Condor
Sell 2026-07-17 $430.00/$380.00 put wing and $550.00/$630.00 call wing
Credit: $23.15-$28.30
Max loss: $51.70
Max gain: $28.30
BE: 401.70 / 578.30
Trigger: Adjust wings if spot nears $430 or $550; exit at 50% max gain.
Same rationale as strangle but with defined risk; lower credit but safer in high IV environment.
Outperforms: Range-bound strategy using put and call wings to profit from time decay with limited loss.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Long straddle
Buy 2026-08-21 $470.00 put + buy $470.00 call
Debit: $114.89-$140.42
Max loss: $140.42
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 329.58 / 610.42
High IV and 80% beat rate suggest potential for large swing.
Outperforms: Capture large earnings move with defined risk.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!AMD's elevated IV (7d implied move 8.3%) amplifies option premiums; time decay works against long options.
!Spot ($466) below resistance ($500) and max pain ($500); potential pinning or drift lower.
!Bearish flow and large put activity expiring pre-earnings signal downside risk near term.

What to Watch

?Earnings date (August 4, 2026): key catalyst; watch for pre-earnings IV expansion.
?Resistance at $500 (call wall) and support at $413 (em guardrail).
?Unusual put activity at $390 (July 2 expiry): monitor for continued accumulation; note it expires before earnings.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 5, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.