thetaOwl
HomeOptionsAMDReports

AMD

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.Close $467.51EOD only
Max Pain
$400.00
Next expiry May 29, 2026
Expected Move
±$33.20
7.1% from close
Price Gap
-67.51
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
73
High premium
P/C OI
1.09
Balanced positioning
Consensus
7.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 22, 2026 close
AMD Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 26, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

AMD 70d from earnings; bullish flow with $1B net premium but spot far above max pain

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 24.4% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Spot 24.4% above max pain ($405) – high pinning risk despite bullish flow
📊$1B net premium flow – extremely bullish
⚠️Spot 24.4% above max pain – high reversion risk

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$405.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 10,929 (19.6% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-08-04 (70 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-29 (3d): ±$32.08 (6.4%)
  • 2026-06-05 (10d): ±$53.70 (10.7%)
  • 2026-06-12 (17d): ±$67.10 (13.3%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steep near-term (3d IV~75-80), decaying into earnings 70d out

Crush estimate: N/A – earnings >60 days out

Skew: Put skew elevated (P/C OI 1.07), but recent call volume dominates (P/C vol 0.70)

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Past 5 earnings avg move ~8% vs implied 6.4% for 3d

Directional bias: Bullish – 80% beat rate, often rallies

Key Levels

1$405.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $471.82/$535.97; 1w $450.19/$557.59
3Max pain pins: $405 (2026-05-29); $410 (2026-06-05); $420 (2026-06-12)

Flow Highlights

Unusual put buying at $500 and $480 strikes (48x and 38x OI)

Hedging or bearish positioning

Massive call buying at $510 strike (8795 vol, 6.2x OI)

Bullish sentiment, targeting upside

Strategies

Call Diagonal Calendar
Sell 2026-06-05 $505.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $500.00 call
Debit: $27.20-$33.25
Max loss: $33.25
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Exit if spot breaches $436.79 invalidation or close before June expiry.
Captures steep near-term IV decay with bullish bias; spot near guardrail support.
Outperforms: Sell short call at 505, buy long call at 500; benefits from time decay and IV contraction pre-earnings.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Short Strangle
Sell 2026-06-05 $480.00 put + sell $525.00 call
Credit: $30.56-$37.35
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $37.35
BE: 442.65 / 562.35
Trigger: Monitor gamma risk; close at 50% profit or if spot approaches strikes.
High near-term theta; spot between guardrails reduces tail risk; IV decay profitable.
Outperforms: Sell 480 put and 525 call for June 5; collect premium with defined risk via guardrails.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Long straddle
Buy 2026-08-21 $500.00 put + buy $500.00 call
Debit: $131.83-$161.12
Max loss: $161.12
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 338.88 / 661.12
High IV regime and bullish flow but pin risk to max pain.
Outperforms: Long vol around earnings; avg 8% move > implied 6.4%.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Spot 24.4% above max pain ($405) – risk of pinning down
!High vol regime (VIX 17) amplifies moves
!Gamma flip at $405 could trigger reversal

What to Watch

?Resistance $571 (EM guardrail) and $600 call wall
?Support $437 (EM guardrail) and $405 gamma flip
?Put flow at $500 – sustained volume signals downside hedge
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.