thetaOwl
HomeOptionsAMDReports

AMD

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.Close $447.58EOD only
Max Pain
$415.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$24.20
5.4% from close
Price Gap
-32.58
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
56
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.08
Balanced positioning
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
AMD Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 20, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

AMD 76d to earnings; bullish regime, high IV, 80% beat rate.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 7.9% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Flow strongly bullish, spot above MP, long time decay.
🚨Unusual put at 392.5: caution below support.
🎰850 Call lotto: extreme OTM, low prob.
📊80% historical beat rate: upside bias.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-08-04 (76 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-22 (2d): ±$24.20 (5.4%)
  • 2026-05-29 (9d): ±$40.07 (9.0%)
  • 2026-06-05 (16d): ±$52.85 (11.8%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Upward sloping: 2d ±5.4%, 9d ±9.0%, 16d ±11.8%.

Crush estimate: No immediate crush; post-earnings vol decline ~76d.

Skew: Put skew elevated near $445; unusual put at 392.5.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not provided; beat rate 80% suggests upside.

Directional bias: Bullish (flow & pinning).

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $423.38/$471.78; 1w $407.50/$487.65
2Max pain pins: $415 (2026-05-22); $400 (2026-05-29); $400 (2026-06-05)

Flow Highlights

Unusual put activity: 392.5 Put (vol/OI 15.1)

Bearish hedging below support.

High vol at 445 Call and Put (vol>1400 each)

Active trading at key level.

Deep OTM 850 Call (1000 vol, IV 197%)

Lottery-style bullish speculation.

Strategies

Bullish Call Diagonal
Sell 2026-05-29 $477.50 call / buy 2026-07-17 $470.00 call
Debit: $27.90-$34.10
Max loss: $34.10
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Adjust if spot breaks below 415 support.
Leverages upward sloping term structure and bullish flow; net positive theta and delta.
Outperforms: Sells near-term call, buys longer-term call to profit from time decay and directional move.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Short Strangle
Sell 2026-06-05 $410.00 put + sell $490.00 call
Credit: $20.52-$25.08
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $25.08
BE: 384.92 / 515.08
Trigger: Monitor for IV spikes; exit if spot approaches strikes.
Captures premium from high IV and long time decay; bear put skew offers cushion.
Outperforms: Sells out-of-the-money put and call to collect credit; benefits from range-bound movement.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Earnings 76d away; long theta decay.
!High IV may compress without catalyst.
!Spot 7.9% above MP; pullback risk.
!High vol regime (VIX 17) amplifies moves.

What to Watch

?IV term structure steepness.
?445 strike activity for direction.
?Support 415, resistance 450.
?AI competition or product news.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 20, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.