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AMAT

Applied Materials, Inc.Close $668.00EOD only

Max Pain

$555.00

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$13.75

2.1% from close

Price Gap

-113.00

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

1.01

Balanced positioning

Consensus

6.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 25, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMAT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 25, 2026 close

AMAT Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 26, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

AMAT regime shows high vol with dealer long gamma pinning near $580. Spot is 8.1% above max pain, favoring a drift lower. Mixed flow and market headwinds (QQQ -1.38%) add caution. Bias is neutral-to-slightly-bearish next week targeting $580, but multi-week range $548-$705 with upside if risk-on resumes. Confidence 7.5 reflects strong GEX alignment offset by spot distance.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

GEX strongly aligned (+2), positive GEX pinning (+1), spot distance (-1), VIX 18 (+0.5) yield base 7.5.

Supports: Dealer long gamma ($15.5M GEX) and long delta (13.7M DEX), strong pinning at $580 max pain, high vol regime, clear support at $580.
Conflicts: Spot 8.1% above max pain, mixed flow, broader market down (QQQ -1.38%), risk of volatility spike if support breaks.

🎯Pin at $580: Max pain and GEX support converge; expect price gravitation.

⚠️Spot above MP: 8.1% distance favors drift lower.

🛡️Dealer hedge: Long gamma provides cushion but could amplify moves if broken.

📉Market headwind: QQQ selloff adds downside pressure.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV elevated vs typical range; VIX at 18.4 supports high vol; driven by sector volatility and AMAT-specific option activity.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$15.5M, positive gamma across expiries; no flip risk from put OI; pinning effect strong near $580 max pain.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow with net premium slightly bearish as spot trades above max pain; call/put activity balanced but downside bias.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot trades 8.1% above nearest max pain ($580), implying potential mean reversion toward pin.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Price ranges span two expiries with distinct max pain levels (7/2, 7/10), indicating multi-week pinning dynamics. Gamma positive across expiries supports structural positioning.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$573.89$679.79

Key support $580; resistance $650. Gamma pinning may hold price near low end.

Next 2 weeks

$548.52$705.17

Range $548-$705 with max pain at $540 (7/10); reduced directional conviction.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $580 (2026-06-26); $550 (2026-07-02); $540 (2026-07-10)

EM guardrails: 1w $573.89/$679.79

Support: $580.00 · $548.52

Resistance: $650.00 · $680.00 · $705.17

Structural: Structural support: $580 (max pain 6/26) and $548.52 (range low). Resistance: $650 (prior high), $680, $705.17 (range high). Gamma flip: negligible put OI; no flip risk.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+15.5M

DEX: +13.7M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Next-term gamma positive at $15.5M GEX with long delta of 13.7M shares. Dealers are long gamma, providing stability around current levels but may amplify moves on break of $580 support.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: AMAT IV is elevated relative to VIX, reflecting stock-specific risk and high vol regime. Options are pricing in above-average moves, possibly due to sector or event risk.

Term structure: Term structure is upward sloping with elevated premiums in weekly expiries due to pinning activity. The 7/2 and 7/10 expiries show distinct max pain levels, creating kinks.

Skew: Put skew is elevated, reflecting downside protection demand given spot above MP. Opportunity: sell put spreads at $580 support to capture premium while utilizing gamma pinning.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: $83M net premium, elevated put volume (P/C 1.24) suggests bearish tilt.

Directional prints: 263.8 put 260 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 4.5x; deep OTM put buying at high IV; bearish hedge or speculation; likely bought. 58.4 call 660 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 4.1x; OTM call buying near term; bullish bet. 85.5 call 850 OTM 2026-07-17 — Vol/OI 2.3x; large OTM call buying; bullish directional.

Unusual: 117.6 put 90 OTM 2027-06-17 — Vol/OI 4.0x; deep OTM long-dated put buying; bearish speculation or tail hedge. 205.1 put 270 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 3.0x; deep OTM put with high IV; bearish. 82 call 710 OTM 2026-08-21 — Vol/OI 2.4x; OTM call buying; bullish.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below $580 support could trigger dealer gamma flip and accelerate selloff toward $548.

!Broader market selloff (QQQ weakness) could overwhelm pinning effect.

!Spot remains above MP, increasing probability of drift lower but missing if risk-on returns.

!Volatility spike from unexpected news could break range.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Short strangle	Moderate	Sell 2026-08-21 $540.00 put + sell $820.00 call Why now: Elevated IV, dealer long gamma at $580, low probability of large move near-term.	Gap risk if earnings catalyst pushes beyond $548 or $705; undefined tails.
Call credit spread	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-08-21 $780.00/$860.00 call spread Why now: Spot above max pain, dealer gamma flips below $580; call credit reduces cost.	Break above $650 if risk-on returns; credit at risk.
Iron condor	Conditional	Sell 2026-08-21 $540.00/$440.00 put wing and $820.00/$860.00 call wing Why now: IV high, strikes near $580 gamma pin; defined risk for neutral view.	Range too narrow; max loss if break past wings; entry timing critical.

Top Plays

Range-Bound Iron Condor

Sell 2026-08-21 $540.00/$440.00 put wing and $820.00/$860.00 call wing

Sell put wing at $540 (far OTM) and call wing at $820/$860 to profit from low move probability around pin level.

Why this play: Best fits neutral-to-slightly-bearish multi-week range with defined risk; captures elevated IV and gamma pin near $580.

Credit: $27.54-$33.66

Max loss: $66.34

BE: 506.34 / 853.66

Mgmt: Monitor spot near $580; consider early close if IV collapses or spot approaches wings.

Traders seeking defined risk neutral play with high probability of success.

Wide Short Strangle

Sell 2026-08-21 $540.00 put + sell $820.00 call

Sell $540 put and $820 call to collect premium with 30+ days to expiration.

Why this play: High IV and low near-term move probability favor short vega; wide strikes avoid pin risk but unlimited loss.

Credit: $57.33-$70.07

Max loss: Unlimited

BE: 469.93 / 890.07

Mgmt: Set stop at 2x credit; roll if spot breaks $600 or $750.

Experienced traders comfortable with tail risk and margin requirements.

Bearish Call Credit Spread

Sell 2026-08-21 $780.00/$860.00 call spread

Sell $780/$860 call spread, net credit up to $14.52, max loss $65.48.

Why this play: Slightly bearish bias and elevated put volume support bearish tilt, but upside risk makes this lower rank.

Credit: $11.88-$14.52

Max loss: $65.48

BE: $794.52

Mgmt: Close if spot rises above $650 invalidation level or theta decay near expiration.

Traders with bearish conviction who want defined risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF spot holds above $580 for 1 day with IV > 30% → Sell 2026-08-21 $540/$440 put wing and $820/$860 call wing iron condor (strat_3) for net credit ~$30

IFIF spot consolidates in $580-$650 range for 2 days → Sell 2026-08-21 $540 put and $820 call short strangle (strat_1) for credit ~$64

IFIF spot breaks below $580 with rising put volume → Sell 2026-08-21 $780/$860 call credit spread (strat_2) for credit >$13

Exit Triggers

EXITIF spot closes above $650 → Close short strangle and iron condor; reassess bias

Tactical Summary

Neutral-to-slightly-bearish multi-week range with dealer gamma pin near $580. Prefer short vega plays (iron condor, short strangle) for defined risk; add bearish call spread if $580 breaks.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 26, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.