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AMAT

Applied Materials, Inc.Close $585.88EOD only

Max Pain

$550.00

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$43.77

7.5% from close

Price Gap

-35.88

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.96

Balanced positioning

Consensus

3.0/10

Downside lean

Published snapshot: Jun 23, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMAT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 23, 2026 close

AMAT Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 24, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

AMAT faces downward pressure from spot above max pain ($555) and high vol, but dealer long gamma ($+6.1M) provides support. Bias bearish near-term ahead of expiry.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base 5 +2 GEX/flow alignment +1 pinning -1 spot vs MP distance +0.5 VIX = 7.5

Supports: Dealer long gamma, high vol premium, pinning dynamics near $555.
Conflicts: Spot above max pain, mixed flow, resistance at $667.57.

📉Spot 6.1% above max pain ($555) invites mean reversion.

🛡️Dealer long gamma ($+6.1M) softens downside below $555.

⚡Elevated IV ahead of expiry; vol crush potential post-event.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV elevated vs historical; VIX 19.0 contributes to rich premium environment.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Positive gamma ($+6.1M GEX) with pinning near heavy put OI at $430; max pain $555.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Net premium mixed; put-heavy OI suggests hedging; call interest at upside strikes.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot ~6.1% above max pain ($555), creating downward pull risk as expiry nears.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — High vol, gamma pinning, and proximity to monthly expiry create a short-term, event-driven setup.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$551.39$626.54

Spot above max pain; pinning expected lower towards $555.

Next 1 week

$528.54$649.39

Range bound $528.54-$649.39; no clear catalyst for breakout.

Next 2 weeks

$510.37$667.57

Structural gamma flip below $430 poses downside risk.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $555 (2026-06-26); $540 (2026-07-02); $530 (2026-07-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $551.39/$626.54; 1w $528.54/$649.39

Support: $555.00 · $510.37

Resistance: $667.57

Gamma flip: ~$430.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 1,684 (27.0% below spot)

Structural: Support $555 (max pain pin), $510.37 (2-week low); Resistance $667.57; Gamma flip ~$430 (put OI concentration).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+6.1M

DEX: +12.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$430 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 1,684 (27.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers net long gamma ($+6.1M) and long delta (+12.5M shares); pinning pressure near $555 max pain.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV high vs VIX (19.0), indicating elevated vol premium; may compress as expiry nears.

Term structure: Front-end elevated due to event risk; backwardation likely post-expiry.

Skew: Put skew elevated; selling puts near support could capture premium.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium $41.7M positive, put/call volume ratio 1.58 indicates put-heavy volume but call premium dominance.

Directional prints: 84.4 call 620 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 8.8x, high relative volume, likely bought. OTM call buying suggests bullish directional bet.

Unusual: 198.8 put 275 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 4.3x, IV 198.8%, deep OTM put, likely bought as cheap hedge or bearish speculation. Preferred read: bearish hedge. 188.3 put 150 OTM 2026-07-17 — Vol/OI 2.4x, IV 188.3%, extreme OTM put, likely bought for downside protection. Preferred read: defensive hedge. 81.3 call 655 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 2.8x, OTM call, likely bought for upside exposure. Preferred read: bullish speculation.

Risks & Catalysts

!Downside if spot closes below $555 max pain, triggering dealer hedging.

!Upside if flow shifts positive above $667 resistance, breaking range.

!Vol expansion on broader market sell-off (VIX spiking).

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-10 $550.00/$520.00 put spread Why now: Dealer long gamma provides cushion but downside risk persists; bear put spread captures defined bearish move	Upside if spot rallies above short strike
Call credit spread	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-07-10 $650.00/$740.00 call spread Why now: High implied volatility and bearish flow support selling OTM calls; defined risk	Upside if spot breaks above high strike Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (71%).
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-08-21 $480.00/$410.00 put wing and $800.00/$820.00 call wing Why now: Spot within range with max pain below, iron condor captures time decay and vol contraction	Strong breakout in either direction

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-07-10 $550.00/$520.00 put spread

Buy put spread to profit from controlled downside move.

Why this play: Best aligns with near-term bearish bias; dealer gamma supports but downside risk persists; defined risk.

Debit: $7.85-$9.60

Max loss: $9.60

BE: $540.40

Mgmt: Exit if spot rises above invalidation level ($667.57).

Bearish traders seeking limited-risk bearish exposure.

Iron Condor

Sell 2026-08-21 $480.00/$410.00 put wing and $800.00/$820.00 call wing

Sell OTM put and call wings to profit from spot staying within range.

Why this play: Captures time decay and vol contraction; balanced risk with wide wings; liquidity good.

Credit: $16.13-$19.72

Max loss: $50.28

BE: 460.28 / 819.72

Mgmt: Close if spot approaches wings; adjust if vol spikes.

Neutral to slightly bearish traders wanting defined risk.

Call Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-10 $650.00/$740.00 call spread

Sell call spread to profit from limited upside or downside move.

Why this play: Bearish via selling calls; but liquidity pass false, may be harder to execute.

Credit: $11.94-$14.60

Max loss: $75.40

BE: $664.60

Mgmt: Manage liquidity risk; exit if spot rises above short strike. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (71%).

Bearish traders confident in upside resistance.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF spot closes below $555 support (max pain), triggering bearish momentum. → THEN buy 2026-07-10 $550/$520 bear put spread at $7.85-$9.60.

IFIF spot remains between $480 and $800 and IV elevated, favoring time decay. → THEN sell 2026-08-21 $480/$410 put wing + $800/$820 call wing iron condor for $16.13-$19.72.

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIF spot approaches $480 (put wing) or $800 (call wing), increasing risk of assignment. → THEN adjust iron condor wings or close early to protect credit.

Exit Triggers

EXITIF spot rises above $667.57 resistance, invalidating bearish thesis. → THEN exit bear put spread to cap losses.

Tactical Summary

AMAT bearish near-term with support at $555; favored buy put spread targeting $520. Iron condor suitable for neutral hold into earnings. Avoid call credit spread due to poor liquidity. Manage positions if spot breaks above $667.57 or below $410.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 24, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.