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AMAT

Applied Materials, Inc.Close $668.00EOD only

Max Pain

$555.00

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$13.75

2.1% from close

Price Gap

-113.00

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

1.01

Balanced positioning

Consensus

6.5/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: Jun 25, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMAT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 25, 2026 close

AMAT Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 25, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish near term supported by positive dealer gamma and flow alignment, but vulnerable to mean reversion given 20.4% distance from max pain. Strong GEX/flow alignment and low VIX (18.89) provide a favorable tailwind, though resistance at $680/$700 caps upside.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow alignment; +1 GEX positive pinning; -1 spot 20.4% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19. Net 7.5 accepted.

Supports: Positive GEX ($+10.8M), flow alignment, VIX 18.89, support at $654.25 (2d guardrail).
Conflicts: Spot 20.4% above max pain, resistance at $680 and $700, no put OI concentration below to pin price.

📈Positive gamma provides support near $654.25, bullish drift likely.

⚠️Spot far above max pain ($555) introduces mean reversion risk.

📊Dealer GEX +$10.8M, no gamma flip, consistent with pinning.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV is high relative to typical range, elevated by VIX 18.89 and positive gamma environment.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$10.8M, positive gamma with no nearby flip zones; supports price stability.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed net premium but aligned with gamma, suggesting net supportive positioning.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot 20.4% above max pain ($555), adding pull risk but no immediate OI concentration below to accelerate decline.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — No explicit event catalyst; thesis driven by structural gamma and flow alignment over several weeks.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$654.25$681.75

Support $654.25, resistance $681.75; positive gamma favors upward drift.

Next 1 week

$606.12$729.88

Range $606-$730; potential pull towards max pain but dealer positioning provides cushion.

Next 2 weeks

$582.48$753.52

Wider range $582-$753; uncertainty from IV and distance from key levels.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $555 (2026-06-26); $545 (2026-07-02); $530 (2026-07-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $654.25/$681.75; 1w $606.12/$729.88

Support: $582.48

Resistance: $680.00 · $700.00 · $753.52

Structural: Max pain $555; guardrails: 2d $654.25/$681.75, 1w $606.12/$729.88; support $582.48; resistance $680, $700, $753.52.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+10.8M

DEX: +14.2M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: GEX +10.8M, DEX +14.2M shares; no gamma flip; dealers long gamma, providing stability.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: AMAT IV likely rich vs VIX (18.89) given high vol regime, but specific IV not provided; elevated vol implies optionality premium.

Term structure: Term structure assumed upward sloping with normal contango; no event kinks specified.

Skew: Put skew may be elevated due to max pain distance; potential to sell put spreads for premium decay.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium positive ($199M) with P/C vol ratio 0.80, indicating call buying dominance.

Directional prints: 65.3 call 700 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 10.5, heavy call buying; bullish directional bet, likely bought. 73.7 call 780 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 9.8, large call volume; bullish speculation, likely bought. 68.6 call 680 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 9.0, active call buying; bullish sentiment, likely bought.

Unusual: 208.2 put 150 OTM 2026-07-17 — Extremely OTM put with 208% IV; likely sold premium or lottery speculation. 236.7 put 230 OTM 2026-07-02 — Deep OTM put with 237% IV; unusual high IV, likely premium sale. 94 put 590 OTM 2026-06-26 — OTM put with 94% IV; vol/OI 5.0, note reversal risk.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot pull to max pain $555.

!IV compression if VIX drops below 18.

!Resistance at $680/$700 holds and reverses gains.

!Unexpected event or earnings shock.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-08-21 $680.00/$690.00 call spread Why now: Capture upside to resistance with defined risk, aligned with positive flow and low VIX tailwind.	Upside limited to 680; if stock reverses below 660, spread decays. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-08-21 $580.00/$570.00 put spread Why now: Collect premium in bullish environment; 650 strike offers buffer against max pain at 555.	If stock drops below 645, max loss; volatility expansion could widen spread.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-08-21 $680.00/$690.00 call spread

Buy 680/690 call spread for earnings run-up.

Why this play: Directly captures upside with defined risk; aligns with heavy call flow and low VIX tailwind.

Debit: $4.25-$5.20

Max loss: $5.20

BE: $685.20

Mgmt: Exit near expiration if not ITM; watch $700 resistance. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.

Traders seeking high convexity with capped risk.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-08-21 $580.00/$570.00 put spread

Sell 580/570 put spread to profit from downside protection.

Why this play: Collects premium in bullish environment with higher liquidity and buffer to max pain.

Credit: $3.19-$3.90

Max loss: $6.10

BE: $576.10

Mgmt: Buy back at 50% gain; stop loss if below 580.

Income-focused traders with moderate bullish view.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFAMAT closes above $654.25 (2d guardrail) → Buy 2026-08-21 $680/$690 call spread at market

IFAMAT drops to $600 and holds above $582.48 support → Sell 2026-08-21 $580/$570 put spread for credit $3.19-$3.90

Exit Triggers

EXITAMAT closes below $582.48 → Close both bull call and put credit spreads

Tactical Summary

Bullish near term; target $680-$700. Use bull call spread for upside, put credit spread for income. Key risk: break below $582.48 invalidates. Manage around earnings 2026-08-13.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 25, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.