base 4; +2 high IV; +1 pinning regime; +1 spot below max pain; -1 moderate liquidity; -0.5 earnings in 6 weeks
Term structure: Backwardated near-term (64.5% 2DTE), humped at 45 DTE (61.2%)
Spot vs MP: Below max pain by 3.0% (spot $341.79 vs MP $352)
GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$3.3M — mean-reverting)
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Below $300, dealers amplify moves downward
OI concentrations: Major put walls: $300 (3,112 OI), $250 (3,034 OI), $240 (2,090 OI). Call wall: $430 (5,190 OI).
#1put spread
Sell $300/$295 Put Spread 2026-04-17 (17 DTE)
Major OI support at $300 (3,112 OI) aligns with gamma flip level. High IV (58.8%) provides strong credit. 17 DTE offers good theta decay while avoiding earnings.
Mgmt: Close at 65% max profit. Exit if price closes below $305. Roll down/out if $300 tested with 21 DTE remaining.
#2iron condor
Sell $310/$305P x $370/$375C 2026-04-24 (24 DTE)
Wide range between major OI strikes ($300P, $400C). High IV (59.3%) boosts premium. Positive GEX supports range-bound price action.
Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit. Manage wings independently — roll tested side out 2 weeks. Exit entire position if price breaches either short strike.
#3cash-secured put
Sell $320 Put 2026-05-01 (31 DTE)
Extremely high IV (59.0%) yields >3% ROC for 31 DTE. Strike is 6.4% below spot, below near-term max pain ($340) but above major OI support. Suitable for those willing to own shares.
Mgmt: Close at 70% profit (≈$7.35 credit). Roll down/out at 21 DTE if tested. Be aware of earnings on 5/14 — close or roll before.
#4call credit spread
Sell $360/$365 Call Spread 2026-04-10 (10 DTE)
Spot well below strike ($341.79 vs $360). High near-term IV (55.5%) for weekly. Unusual put flow at $360 suggests resistance. Defined risk in pinning regime.
Mgmt: Close at 80% profit due to short duration. Exit if price closes above $355.
!Earnings expected 2026-05-14 (≈6 weeks). Close or roll all short premium positions at least 1 week prior to avoid IV crush and event risk.
!Gamma flip at ~$300. A break below this level could trigger accelerated selling — exit all credit put positions.
!Moderate liquidity — multi-leg orders may face slippage. Use limit orders and consider wider bid-ask spreads for iron condors.
!High IV (65%) indicates elevated expected volatility. While good for premium, it signals market uncertainty — size positions accordingly.
!Max pain trend is falling ($352 → $310), indicating downward pressure on longer-dated expirations. Prefer shorter DTE (17-31 days) to avoid this drift.
!Unusual put volume at $360 (Apr 2 expiry) — monitor for institutional selling pressure near that level.