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AMAT

Applied Materials, Inc.Close $426.85EOD only

Max Pain

$422.50

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$19.25

4.5% from close

Price Gap

-4.35

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.00

Balanced positioning

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMAT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

AMAT Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-bearish with a strong gravitational pull toward $340-$352 near-term, but a clear structural downtrend in max pain suggests underlying weakness. Confidence: 7.5/10. The regime is dominated by pinning gamma and high volatility, creating a defined but precarious range.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base 7.5; +2 for strong GEX/flow alignment (pinning, net premium bullish); +1 for positive GEX; -0.5 for spot 3.0% from MP. No override: high IV and falling MP trend are captured.

Supports: Positive GEX (+$3.3M) indicates pinning pressure. Strong net premium inflow (+$30.9M) suggests institutional call buying. Spot near cluster of max pain levels ($340, $352).
Conflicts: High IV (65.1%) and P/C volume ratio >1 (1.26) show put activity. Clear downtrend in max pain from $352 to $310/$290 over subsequent expirations.

📌Strong pinning regime between $340-$352 near-term.

📉Max pain ladder trends down sharply post-April, a bearish structural signal.

💰Massive net premium bullish (+$30.9M) conflicts with high put volume.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 65.1% is extremely high, offering rich premium for sellers but indicating significant expected volatility.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$3.3M concentrated near spot creates a strong pinning effect, suppressing volatility and keeping price range-bound.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed: Net premium is strongly bullish (+$30.9M), but P/C volume ratio is 1.26, showing elevated put trading activity.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot ($341.79) is below the nearest max pain ($352), suggesting a mild upward magnet for the 3/27 expiry, but aligned with the $340 pin for April.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning regime is evident across April expirations ($340 MP for 4/2, 4/10). The clear, persistent downtrend in max pain from $352 to $290 over 2-3 months indicates a structural bearish drift that extends beyond a single event.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$323.77$359.81

Pinned between $340-$360 EM bounds; break below $340 invalidates pin.

Next 1 week

$313.67$369.92

Multiple April expirations pin to $340; range defined by $314-$370 EM.

Next 2 weeks

$304.54$379.04

Max pain drops to $310 by 4/17, suggesting downward pressure as pin releases.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $352 (2026-03-27); $340 (2026-04-02); $340 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $323.77/$359.81; 1w $313.67/$369.92

Support: $300.00 · $250.00 · $130.00

Resistance: $490.00 · $430.00 · $400.00

Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 3,112

Structural: Massive call OI walls at $400-$490 cap long-term upside. Significant put floors at $300, $250, and $130 provide distant but meaningful support. The $300 level is critical as the gamma flip and a major OI strike.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+3.3M

DEX: +9.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$300 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 3,112)

NTM gamma: Positive GEX (+$3.3M) near spot means dealers are net long gamma, hedging by buying dips and selling rallies, reinforcing the range. A move below the ~$300 gamma flip would trigger accelerated dealer selling.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 65.1% is extremely elevated (no VIX provided for direct comp). Implication: selling premium is attractive, but carries high tail risk.

Term structure: Steeply inverted near-term: 2-day IV 64.5% > 10-day 55.5%. Hump at 4/17 (58.8%) and 5/15 (61.2%) likely pricing earnings uncertainty (est. 5/14).

Skew: The ~9 vol-point drop from 4/2 to 4/10 creates a strong calendar spread opportunity for vol sellers (sell near, buy far).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$30.9M bullish; P/C vol 1.26, P/C OI 0.96.

Directional prints: $360P 4/2 vol 1,091 vs OI 140 (7.8x) at 50.2% IV — could be protective put buying or speculative bearish bet. $337.5C 4/17 vol 390 vs OI 232 (1.7x) at 63.7% IV — likely bullish call buying near spot.

Unusual: $185P 4/2 vol 366 vs OI 188 at 262.5% IV — extreme OTM put with massive implied vol, likely a cheap tail hedge or speculative lottery ticket.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at ~$300: A break below triggers accelerated dealer selling and could lead to a sharp drop toward the $250 put OI wall.

!High IV Crush: The steep near-term term structure implies a sharp IV drop after 4/2 expiry, punishing long premium positions.

!Earnings Volatility: Earnings estimated 5/14 creates a volatility hump in May, affecting longer-dated options.

!Structural Bearish Drift: The persistent downtrend in max pain suggests underlying selling pressure may overwhelm the near-term pin.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long Stock	Moderate-Weak	N/A	Trapped in high-vol pin; better to sell premium against shares.
Short Stock	Moderate	N/A	Positive GEX pinning opposes immediate downside; wait for break below $340/$300.
Covered Call	Moderate-Strong	Own stock, sell $360C or $370C 4/10 or 4/17.	Capped upside if pin breaks higher; shares could decline.
Cash-Secured Put / Put Spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $330/$325 put spread 4/10 (above $315 weekly EM support).	Break below $315 support.
Long Calls	Weak	N/A	Buying expensive IV (65%) into a pinning regime; theta and vol crush are severe headwinds.
Long Puts / Bear Put Spread	Moderate	Buy $340/$330 bear put spread 4/17, targeting move to next MP at $310.	Pinning GEX fights move; high IV makes debit spreads expensive.
Iron Condor	Moderate	$325P/$320P x $360C/$365C 4/10 (within 1w EM bounds).	High IV >28 and GEX positive yields 'Moderate' rating per threshold. Tail risk from high volatility.
Calendar/Diagonal	Strong	Sell $340C 4/2 (64.5% IV), buy $340C 4/10 (55.5% IV). Reverse calendar to capture ~9 vol-pt decay.	Spot moves sharply away from $340, reducing theta harvest.
PMCC / LEAPS Diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy $240C Jan 2027 (~40.6% IV), sell $360C 4/10 against it. Targets pin at $340-$360.	Capital intensive; short call may be challenged if pin breaks higher.

Top Plays

Near-Term Reverse Calendar Spread

Sell $340 Call 4/2, Buy $340 Call 4/10

Capitalizes on the steep 9 vol-point inversion in term structure. The pinning regime at $340 maximizes theta decay on the short, high-IV leg while the long leg provides downside vol protection.

Credit: $1.20-$1.80

Max loss: Unlimited (defined by strike width minus credit, but long call caps risk)

BE: Complex; profit max if spot at $340 at 4/2 expiry.

Mgmt: Close for 50-70% of max credit. Exit early if spot moves >$10 from $340. Roll short leg if pin holds.

Traders comfortable with non-directional, volatility-based strategies. Best in a dedicated options account.

Defined-Risk Put Spread (Multi-week)

Sell $330 / Buy $325 Put Spread, 4/17 Expiry

This 30-45 DTE trade aligns with the multi-week thesis. It collects premium in a high-IV environment, targets the downward drift in max pain toward $310, and uses the 1-week EM support ($313.67) as a guide for the short strike. The extra time improves risk/reward versus a weekly by providing a larger premium cushion and more time for the bearish max pain drift to play out.

Credit: $0.85-$1.15

Max loss: $4.15

BE: $329.15

Mgmt: Take profit at 60-80% of max credit. Exit if spot closes above $340 (pin holds strong) or below $325 (spread threatened).

Traders with a mildly bearish bias seeking defined-risk income. Good for smaller accounts.

Covered Call Overlay

Own AMAT, Sell $360 Call 4/10

Ideal for existing shareholders. Sells rich IV (55.5%) against a pinned stock, generating income while positioning for a grind toward the $340-$360 range. The strike is above the 2-day EM high ($359.81), offering a buffer.

Credit: $4.50-$6.00

Max loss: Unlimited downside on stock (minus premium).

BE: Stock purchase price minus premium received.

Mgmt: Consider rolling up and out if spot approaches $360. Close if pin breaks below $330.

Existing shareholders looking to enhance yield in a range-bound, high-vol environment.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot bounces to $350-352 (testing 3/27 max pain) → Enter bear put spread: Buy $340 / Sell $330 Puts 4/17.

IFSpot breaks and holds below $340 for 2 hours → Initiate diagonal: Buy $300 Put 6/18, sell $330 Put 4/10 (bearish diagonal).

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes below $315 (1w EM support guide) → Exit all short put positions (CSPs, put spreads).

EXITSpot closes above $360 (2d EM high) → Exit all short call positions (covered calls, call spreads).

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: High-volatility pin between $340-$352 near-term, with a structural bearish drift evidenced by falling max pain. Favor selling rich near-term premium (calendars, put spreads) or overlaying covered calls on existing stock. Invalidation of the pin is a close below $340. Top plays: 1) Reverse calendar for vol traders, 2) 4/17 put spread for defined-risk bearish bias, 3) Covered call for shareholders.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.