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AMAT

Applied Materials, Inc.Close $585.88EOD only

Max Pain

$550.00

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$43.77

7.5% from close

Price Gap

-35.88

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.96

Balanced positioning

Consensus

3.0/10

Downside lean

Published snapshot: Jun 23, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMAT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 23, 2026 close

AMAT Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 23, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias as tech selloff drags AMAT lower; spot 6.5% above $550 max pain suggests downside gravitation, though dealer long gamma at $6.1M may slow decline. VIX at 19 supports cautious bearish.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base 5, +2 GEX/flow aligned, +1 GEX positive, -1 spot far from MP, +0.5 VIX elevated.

Supports: Dealer gamma long ($6.1M), key support $550, VIX 19.
Conflicts: Tech selloff, spot above max pain, gamma flip at $430.

📉Spot 6.5% above $550 max pain; downside correction likely.

🔒Long gamma $6.1M at $550; pinning expected near expiry.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

Vol is High: IV elevated vs typical range amid market stress (QQQ -3.29%), VIX 19 confirms broad uncertainty.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Gamma is Pinning: Total GEX +$6.1M, heavy put OI at $550 (26-Jun expiry), positive gamma reinforces pinning.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Flow is Mixed: Net premium neutral, put OI concentrated at $550, call OI scattered, no strong directional conviction.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot Above MP: ~$584 well above $550 max pain, creating downward drift potential toward pin as expiry approaches.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Max pain pinning and upcoming 26-Jun expiry dominate; high vol and tech selloff accelerate downside mean reversion.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$542.11$629.66

Target $550; long gamma supports but tech selloff may push lower.

Next 1 week

$524.38$647.38

Gravitation toward $550; support at $548.36 if breached.

Next 2 weeks

$548.36$623.41

Post-expiry uncertain; range $548-623, no clear catalyst.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $550 (2026-06-26); $525 (2026-07-02); $525 (2026-07-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $542.11/$629.66; 1w $524.38/$647.38

Support: $550.00 · $548.36

Resistance: $623.41

Gamma flip: ~$430.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 1,673 (26.6% below spot)

Structural: Support: $550 (max pain), $548.36 (2w low). Resistance: $623.41 (2w high). Gamma flip ~$430.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+6.1M

DEX: +12.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$430 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 1,673 (26.6% below spot))

NTM gamma: Next-term (26-Jun) dealer gamma +$6.1M, DEX +12.2M shares, heavy put OI at $550, gamma flip ~$430.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: AMAT IV likely rich vs VIX 19 given high vol regime, not extreme; IV may contract post-expiry.

Term structure: Backwardated due to 26-Jun expiry; front-end IV elevated.

Skew: Put skew elevated at $550; call skew flat. Opportunity: sell puts at $550 to capture premium backed by pinning support.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: $61.9M net call premium; P/C vol 1.48, OI 0.96 – call flow dominant despite heavy put volume, indicating hedging alongside bullish bets.

Directional prints: 74.3 call 760 OTM 2027-01-15 — Far-dated ITM call; vol/OI 2.6; likely opening bullish position. 78.9 call 800 OTM 2026-08-21 — OTM call; vol/OI 2.3; possible bullish speculation. 76.8 put 500 OTM 2026-08-21 — OTM put; vol/OI 2.2; hedging or bearish bet.

Unusual: 203.5 put 330 OTM 2026-06-26 — Deep OTM put; vol/OI 2.3, high IV; panic hedge or lottery. 182.8 put 340 OTM 2026-06-26 — Similar deep OTM put; vol/OI 2.2; likely protective puts. 243 put 290 OTM 2026-06-26 — Extreme OTM put; vol/OI 1.5, extremely high IV; tail hedge.

Risks & Catalysts

!Tech selloff intensifies, breaking $550 support.

!Gamma flip to negative below $430.

!Market rallies, pushing spot above $620 resistance.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-08-21 $520.00/$480.00 put spread Why now: Bearish flow and max pain drag; post-earnings follow-through expected.	Upside risk if market rebounds; gamma flip below $430.
Call credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-08-21 $730.00/$800.00 call spread Why now: Elevated IV from call flow; short call spread profits from vol contraction and spot decline.	Spot rallies above short strike; capped upside.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-08-21 $520.00/$480.00 put spread

Expresses bearish view with defined risk; profits from decline below $520.

Why this play: Aligns with bearish bias and max pain drag; flow supports downside.

Debit: $12.40-$15.15

Max loss: $15.15

BE: $504.85

Mgmt: Close at 50% gain or if spot breaks above $623.

Traders expecting continued selloff into earnings.

Call Credit Spread

Sell 2026-08-21 $730.00/$800.00 call spread

Sells call spread to capture IV contraction and downside move.

Why this play: Profits from high IV and bearish bias; less directional risk.

Credit: $9.90-$12.10

Max loss: $57.90

BE: $742.10

Mgmt: Manage at 50% profit or if spot exceeds $730.

Traders wanting premium decay with bearish tilt.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF spot breaks below $550 support (max pain) and holds for one 5-min candle → THEN enter the Bear Put Spread: Buy 2026-08-21 $520/$480 put spread

IFIF spot rallies above $623.41 resistance with volume → THEN enter the Call Credit Spread: Sell 2026-08-21 $730/$800 call spread

Exit Triggers

EXITIF spot trades above $623.41 resistance → THEN exit the Bear Put Spread at market

EXITIF spot falls below $430 gamma flip level → THEN exit the Call Credit Spread at market

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias with max pain drag at $550. Lead with bear put spread on breakdown below $550; fade rallies at $623.41 with call credit spread. Manage risk: exit bear put if resistance breaks, exit call spread if gamma flips.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 23, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.