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VST

Vistra Corp.Close $144.00EOD only

Max Pain

$141.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$4.86

3.4% from close

Price Gap

-3.00

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.83

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects VST options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

VST Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-bearish with a near-term pin magnet to $155. Confidence: 5.5/10. Spot is pinned near the gamma flip at $150, but negative GEX and a falling max pain trend suggest underlying weakness. The immediate pin to $155 (max pain) provides a short-term bullish pull, but structural positioning favors a drift lower over time.

Confidence:

5.5 / 10

base 5; +1 GEX/flow weakly aligned (GEX negative, net premium slightly negative); -0.5 spot 3.0% from MP. No override: high IV and mixed signals balance out.

Supports: GEX -$10.0M (trending regime), DEX +8.4M shares (dealer long delta), immediate max pain pin at $155.
Conflicts: Net premium nearly flat (-$195K), P/C ratios mixed (vol 0.88, OI 1.29), spot at critical gamma flip.

⚖️Spot at gamma flip ~$150 — break either way accelerates dealer hedging.

📉Max pain trend falling from $155 to $150 over 16 expirations.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 57.5% — very high, favoring premium sellers if direction can be contained.

Gamma Regime

Trending

GEX -$10.0M — trending regime; dealers are short gamma, hedging will amplify spot moves.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Flow mixed — net premium slightly negative, P/C ratios show put OI dominance (1.29) but recent call volume.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot $150.33 vs MP $155 — below by 3.0%, creating a short-term upward pin magnet.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder shows a clear downtrend from $155 to $150 across the front 16 expirations, and negative GEX is a structural feature, not just a weekly pin. This suggests a bearish drift over several weeks, not just a Friday event.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$144.71$155.95

Driven by max pain pin at $155; failure below $144.71 invalidates.

Next 1 week

$138.56$162.11

Pin releases post-Friday; negative GEX and falling MP trend favor a test lower.

Next 2 weeks

$135.26$165.41

Structural dealer positioning (negative GEX) and falling MP trend should exert downward pressure.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $155 (2026-03-27); $155 (2026-04-02); $158 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $144.71/$155.95; 1w $138.56/$162.11

Support: $150.00 · $110.00 · $105.00

Resistance: $190.00 · $190.00 · $170.00

Gamma flip: ~$150.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 8,509

Structural: **Call OI wall $170-$220** caps rallies; **put floor $105-$110** provides distant but massive support. The $190 call OI (6,354) is the most significant near-term cap.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-10.0M

DEX: +8.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$150 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 8,509)

NTM gamma: Gamma flip at ~$150. Dealers are **short gamma** (GEX -$10M). A move **above $150** forces dealers to buy shares to hedge, accelerating upside. A move **below $150** forces dealers to sell shares, accelerating downside.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 57.5% — extremely high. Implies expensive options; selling premium has inherent edge if direction is manageable.

Term structure: **Humped** — peaks at 38 DTE (63.1% on 5/8), then declines. Suggests event risk (earnings ~5/7) priced into that expiry, creating a calendar spread opportunity.

Skew: **May 8 (38 DTE) IV 63.1% vs Apr 17 (17 DTE) 56.4%** — ~7 vol-pt differential. Supports a reverse calendar (sell high IV May, buy lower IV April) for vol crush post-earnings.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$195K (slightly bearish); P/C vol 0.88 (balanced), P/C OI 1.29 (structural put bias).

Directional prints: **$155C saw +$364K net premium** — likely bought calls targeting max pain. **$125P saw -$448K net premium** — large put selling or buying? Given high OI, this is more likely institutional put selling for income, a bullish-to-neutral signal.

Unusual: **$110P 5/15: Vol 1,009 vs OI 351 (2.9x) at IV 69.3%** — could be protective put buying for a long portfolio or speculative OTM punt. High IV suggests it was likely sold (premium collection).

Risks & Catalysts

!**Gamma flip at $150** — break decisively in either direction triggers accelerated dealer hedging.

!**Earnings event ~5/7** creates vol crush risk for long premium positions after 5/8 expiry.

!**High IV (57.5%)** increases tail risk for short premium strategies if the trending regime breaks range.

!**Distant put floor at $105-$110** indicates where major institutional support may emerge.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	N/A	Negative GEX and falling MP trend are headwinds; better to sell puts below.
Short stock	Moderate	N/A	Negative GEX supports trend, but near-term pin to $155 is a headwind.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Own stock, sell $155C or $160C 4/10 or 4/17.	Assignment above strike; pin may limit upside.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $145/$140 put spread 4/17 (below 1w EM support).	Break below $138.56.
Long calls	Weak	Avoid — IV too high; pin provides limited runway to $155.	Vol crush and time decay.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy $150/$145 bear put spread 4/17 (betting on break below gamma flip).	Pin to $155 causes near-term pain.
Iron condor	Moderate-Weak	$145/$140P x $160/$165C 4/17 (within 1w EM bounds).	GEX negative (trending) and VIX contextually high — not ideal for range-bound strategies.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Reverse Calendar: Sell $150 strike 5/8 (IV 63.1%), Buy $150 strike 4/17 (IV 56.4%).	Directional move through $150 hurts; best if pin holds.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy $100C Jan 2027, sell $155C or $160C against it monthly.	Capital intensive; high LEAPS IV.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread (Multi-Week)

Buy $150/$145 bear put spread, exp 4/17 (17 DTE).

Expresses the multi-week bearish drift thesis (falling MP, negative GEX) with defined risk. Uses the gamma flip at $150 as the trigger strike. The extra time to 4/17 allows the structural trend to play out beyond the immediate weekly pin.

Debit: $1.80-$2.20

Max loss: $1.80

BE: $148.20

Mgmt: Take profit at 50-70% of max profit ($0.90-$1.26 credit). Exit if spot closes above $155 (pin wins).

Traders with a bearish bias seeking defined risk, willing to withstand a possible pin to $155 this week.

Reverse Calendar (Earnings Vol)

Sell $150 Call 5/8, Buy $150 Call 4/17.

Capitalizes on the humped term structure by selling expensive vol (63.1%) ahead of earnings and buying cheaper vol (56.4%). Profits if spot stays near $150 and the May vol crushes post-earnings. The 30+ DTE short leg captures the event.

Credit: $1.00-$1.50

Max loss: N/A

BE: Complex; manage for vol crush.

Mgmt: Close after earnings (5/7) for vol crush profit. Exit if spot moves decisively beyond $145/$155.

Vol traders looking for a non-directional play on elevated event vol, comfortable with pin risk.

Cash-Secured Put Spread (Premium Sale)

Sell $145/$140 put spread, exp 4/10 (10 DTE).

Collects premium in a high-IV environment with a bullish-to-neutral bias. Strikes are below the 1-week expected move support ($138.56) and target the $145 support level. Benefits from the near-term pin and time decay.

Credit: $1.10-$1.40

Max loss: $3.90

BE: $143.90

Mgmt: Close at 60-80% max profit. Roll or take assignment if spot breaches $145.

Income-focused traders who believe the stock won't crash below $140 in 10 days.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot breaks and closes below $149 (below gamma flip) → Enter $150/$145 bear put spread 4/17.

IFIf spot rallies to tag $155 (max pain) and stalls → Sell $155/$160 call credit spread 4/10.

Exit Triggers

EXITIf spot closes above $155.50 → Exit all bearish positions (e.g., bear put spreads).

EXITIf IV on May 8 expiry drops below 50% (post-earnings vol crush) → Close reverse calendar spread for profit.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: Near-term pin to $155, followed by a multi-week bearish drift toward $150 and below, driven by negative GEX and a falling max pain trend. Invalidation is a sustained break above $155.50. The regime favors selling premium at resistance and defined-risk bearish spreads after the pin plays out. Top Plays: 1) Bear Put Spread (for trend followers), 2) Reverse Calendar (for vol traders), 3) Put Spread (for premium sellers).

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.