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VST

Vistra Corp.Close $144.00EOD only
Max Pain
$141.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.86
3.4% from close
Price Gap
-3.00
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
3
Low premium
P/C OI
0.83
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
4/4
Partial coverage
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects VST options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
VST Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected around 5/7 (37 days out). IV is extremely elevated (58%), making premium selling attractive, but the stock is in a trending gamma regime with spot below max pain, suggesting potential for a directional move. The best strategy is a short premium play, given the high IV and historical tendency to under-move expectations.

Confidence:
4.5 / 10
base 5; -0.5 high IV regime; +0.0 gamma trending; -0.0 flow mixed; -0.0 spot below MP
Most important: IV is 58% (high regime) with a sharp term structure kink at the 5/8 expiration, confirming earnings are priced for that week. Historical moves have consistently under-shot the expected move.
⚠️Historical EPS data shows 4 consecutive misses. Fundamental downside risk is elevated.
📊Earnings implied for week of 5/8 (IV kink at 5/08 expiry). Expected move ±9.6%.
🔄Gamma trending regime (negative GEX) suggests dealers will amplify directional moves.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (IV 58%)
Gamma Regime
Trending (GEX $-10.0M — pro-cyclical)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem $-0.2M, P/C 0.88)
Spot vs MP
Below max pain by 3.0% (spot $150.33 vs MP $155)
Gamma flip: ~$150.00 — Gamma flip near $150; below this, dealers amplify downside moves.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-07 (37 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 5/08 (38d): ±$14.40 (9.6%) [$135.93 - $164.73]

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp kink at 5/08 (38d) to 63.1% vs 57.2% (5/01) and 56.5% (4/10). Confirms earnings priced for week of 5/8.

Crush estimate: ~20-25 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~40%

Skew: P/C OI ratio of 1.29 shows more put OI, but P/C volume of 0.88 suggests recent call interest. Premium flow mixed.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 0% (0/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Data insufficient for exact move comparison, but consistent negative EPS surprises suggest downside risk.

Directional bias: Historical EPS misses suggest potential for negative reaction.

Key Levels

1$150 gamma flip
2$155 max pain (near-term)
3EM: $136 - $165 (5/08)
4$170 call OI wall
5$110/$125 put OI clusters

Flow Highlights

Large net premium outflow at $125P (-$448K) and $152.5P (-$312K).

Significant put buying for downside protection, aligning with negative EPS surprise history.

Unusual activity: 1,009 vol in $110P 5/15 (2.9x OI, IV 69.3%).

Large, high-IV put purchase for post-earnings expiration, a bearish bet or hedge.

Strong net premium inflow at $155C (+$364K) and $150C (+$250K).

Call buying against the max pain level, suggesting a potential squeeze back toward $155.

Strategies

Short Iron Condor (Premium Harvest)
Sell $136/$130P x $165/$172.5C 5/08
Credit: $2.50-$3.50
Max loss: $6.50
Max gain: $2.50
BE: 133.50 - 168.50
Trigger: Enter 5-7 days before earnings (late April) if IV > 60%.
Targets elevated IV (63%) and historical under-move tendency. Wings set just outside the expected move.
Outperforms: Stock stays within the 9.6% expected move bounds; IV crushes post-earnings.
Underperforms: Stock gaps beyond short strikes (>11% move).
Put Calendar Spread (Bearish/Directional)
Buy $145P 5/08 (long) / Sell $145P 4/24 (short)
Max loss: Debit paid
Max gain: Uncapped if stock drops sharply post-earnings
BE: Complex; best if stock is near $145 at 4/24 expiry then drops.
Trigger: Enter 2-3 weeks before earnings.
Capitalizes on high near-term IV (sold) and earnings volatility (bought). Aligns with negative EPS surprise history and put flow. Uses high IV term structure kink.
Outperforms: Stock drifts to $145 by 4/24, then drops post-earnings (5/7).
Underperforms: Stock rallies sharply or IV crush overwhelms long-dated option.
Long Put Diagonal (Defensive Hedge)
Buy $140P 6/18 / Sell $135P 5/08
Credit: $1.00-$2.00
Max loss: Limited to difference in strikes minus credit
Max gain: Credit received if above $135 at 5/08; large gain if stock collapses.
BE: Below $139 at 5/08 expiry for initial credit.
Trigger: Enter 3-4 weeks before earnings as a hedge.
Defensive structure that collects premium from high short-term IV while maintaining long-dated downside exposure. Good for uncertain directional bias with high volatility.
Outperforms: Stock stays above $135 through earnings (collect credit) or crashes below $130 (long put appreciates).
Underperforms: Stock drops to $136-138 at 5/08 expiry (max loss on spread).

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: 9.6% expected move is large. Historical EPS misses increase downside gap risk.
!IV crush risk: High (63% IV). Successful premium sales require managing crush magnitude (~20 vol pts).
!Liquidity: Moderate (280K total OI). Stick to strikes with high OI ($150, $110, $170).
!Gamma risk: Trending regime (negative GEX) means moves can be amplified, especially below $150 gamma flip.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into late April — will it rise further?
?Spot price action relative to $155 max pain and $150 gamma flip.
?Flow in $110-$125 puts and $155-$170 calls for directional clues.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.