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VST

Vistra Corp.Close $144.00EOD only
Max Pain
$141.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.86
3.4% from close
Price Gap
-3.00
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
3
Low premium
P/C OI
0.83
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
4/4
Partial coverage
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects VST options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
Earnings Move History — VST
Historical stock price reactions to earnings announcements

Event-driven behavior view with EPS surprise context and post-event move distribution.

Turn Earnings Behavior Into a Setup
Decision-ready earnings framing, invalidation context, and setup details

Use the earnings report when you want setup selection, confidence context, and invalidation levels in one place.

Avg Move

+1.2%

Beat Rate

20%

Avg Surprise

-56.0%

Events

8

Report Context
Supporting confidence and setup preview

Top Setup Preview

Short Iron Condor (Premium Harvest): Sell $136/$130P x $165/$172.5C 5/08

Earnings expected around 5/7 (37 days out). IV is extremely elevated (58%), making premium selling attractive, but the s

Market close context: March 31, 2026

Earnings Storyline
Quick read on expected pricing, realized reaction, and directional behavior

Implied vs Realized Gap

-24.3%

Nearest implied move is 3.4% vs historical average realized move of 27.6%.

IV Crush Tendency (Proxy)

57%

Historical events finishing inside the nearest implied move.

Realized earnings moves often exceed what options are pricing.

Post-Earnings Directional Bias

Downside Bias

Up 1 / Down 6 (86% dominant)

Average signed move: -14.8%

Earnings Reaction Distribution
Normalized percentage move on each reported event

Stock Move % on Earnings

Excluded 1 outlier point with invalid percent units.

Earnings Event Log
Detailed results for each reported quarter
DateTimeEPS EstEPS ActSurpriseStock MoveBeat?
Aug 6, 2026$2.25
May 7, 2026$2.59-2.7%
May 6, 2026$0.86-1.3%
Mar 31, 2026$1.87$2.87+53.35%+45.0%Yes
Dec 31, 2025$2.30$0.54-76.52%-79.0%No
Sep 30, 2025$1.96$1.75-10.54%-1.0%No
Jun 30, 2025$0.90$0.81-9.77%-63.0%No
Mar 31, 2025$0.68$-0.93-2.38%-1.4%No
Next Step
Optional follow-through after reviewing historical evidence
Want the actionable earnings setup?Open Available Reports (4/4)
How to Read Earnings History
Use historical post-earnings behavior to frame the next event, not to assume the next quarter will repeat the last one.
What this page tells you

It shows how the stock has reacted to past earnings, including surprise history, average move size, and whether upside or downside reactions have tended to dominate.

How traders use it

Compare historical realized moves with the next implied move to judge whether options are pricing too much, too little, or roughly enough event risk.

What matters most

Recent quarters, current guidance, and current IV usually matter more than distant history, especially when the business or macro regime has changed.

Historical earnings behavior is best used to prepare for the next event before you choose a structure and size the risk.