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USO

United States Oil FundClose $122.59EOD only

Max Pain

$110.00

Next expiry Apr 17, 2026

Expected Move

±$5.29

4.3% from close

Price Gap

-12.59

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.58

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

5.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Apr 15, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects USO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 15, 2026 close

USO Flow Report

Analysis based on market close April 15, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Flow Verdict

BiasNeutral-to-Bullish

Confirmation: Sustained call-side premium flow into the $115 60$130 band (repeat high net premium at $115/$120/$110) AND absence of continued front-dated put accumulation around $12122 into the 4/15-4/17 expiries.

Invalidation: Persistent or increasing front-dated put buying (notably repeat prints at the $121 and $122 4/15 strikes) that pushes spot toward the 2d expected-move lower bound $117.30 or the 4/17 max pain $110; or a session where net premium flips materially negative.

Confidence:

4 / 10

base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; -0.5 spot 3.5% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18

Watch next session: Follow-through on call premium at $115/$120 strikes (repeat or new large call flow); Monitoring additional front-dated put flow around $12122 (adds to the current 4/15 volume) and any heavy activity in the 4/17 expiry that would signal a bearish short-term pivot

Flow Summary

Net premium: +$34.7M bullish

P/C volume ratio: 1.04

P/C OI ratio: 1.58

Net premium remains strongly call-biased today concentrated at $115, $120 and $110, but significant same-day front-dated put prints at $122 (Vol=5,563) and $121 (Vol=3,997) introduce non-trivial short-term hedging pressure around expiry. The picture is bifurcated: institutional speculative/upside positioning via concentrated call buys versus active front-dated downside protection that could validate a near-term pullback if it continues.

Notable Prints

USO260415P00123000

Vol: 7,206

OI: 668

Vol/OI: 10.8x

IV: 15.7%

Notional: ~$346K

Intent: Front-date directional/hedge activity around expiry

Dual read: High same-day ITM put volume could be protective buying, expiration-driven closes, or rolls; IV is low which favors active hedge or closing activity rather than vol-pickup speculation.

Read-through: Concentrated front-dated ITM put flow is meaningful for near-term downside risk; continued similar prints would increase likelihood of price gravitating to the lower end of the 2d expected-move ($117.30).

USO260415P00122000

Vol: 5,563

OI: 890

Vol/OI: 6.2x

IV: 8.6%

Notional: ~$22.3K

Intent: Same-day protective put accumulation or expiry management

Dual read: Could be dealers/holders adjusting or closing positions into expiry rather than fresh directional buys; last price $0.04 reduces pure notional impact but volume is material relative to daily flow.

Read-through: This print strengthens the near-term downside hedge signal; if repeated or joined by fresh OI increases, it would materially raise the chance of a short-term pull toward the 2d EM lower bound.

USO260415P00121000

Vol: 3,997

OI: 730

Vol/OI: 5.5x

IV: 13.3%

Notional: ~$4.0K

Intent: Front-dated protective buys or expiry roll activity

Dual read: Low last price implies small notional per contract; still significant same-day activity that should not be ignored for near-term positioning.

Read-through: Adds to the cluster of expiry-day put demand around parity strikes; increases the weight of short-term downside hedging in today's flow.

USO260717C00180000

Vol: 1,423

OI: 314

Vol/OI: 4.5x

IV: 70.6%

Notional: ~$555K

Intent: Long-dated directional/speculative call accumulation (asymmetric upside bet)

Dual read: Could be part of larger structured upside exposure or standalone speculative longs; size and IV imply institutional or sophisticated spec activity rather than retail lottery tickets.

Read-through: Meaningful long-dated call flow at $180 signals asymmetric upside speculation or replacement for leveraged exposure; supports a narrative of institutions buying skewed upside optionality while maintaining downside hedges.

USO260515P00025000

Vol: 6,250

OI: 161

Vol/OI: 38.8x

IV: 168.8%

Notional: ~$6K

Intent: Speculative long-dated downside lottery/long-protective puts

Dual read: High vol vs OI suggests retail/lottery or structured one-off, but last price $0.01 means negligible hedging pressure despite headline contract count.

Read-through: Deep-OTM protection with near-zero premium is noise for dealer gamma but indicates segmented demand for tail insurance.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: $115, $120 and $110 strikes show the largest premium flow (deterministic top premium flow: $115 call net $19,037,640; $120 call net $9,763,708; $110 call net $8,019,024) 60 institutions are adding upside exposure concentrated in the 11025 band and selectively buying long-dated asymmetric upside (notably 7/17 $180 calls).

Put additions: Significant structural put OI remains at low strikes ($75, $80, $67, $68) and there's a material put cluster at $110 (OI=18,251). Importantly, front-dated expiry activity on 4/15 shows concentrated puts at $123 (Vol=7,206), $122 (Vol=5,563) and $121 (Vol=3,997) indicating active short-term protective buying or expiry management.

GEX/DEX consistency: Mixed: net premium is call-biased while GEX is modestly negative (-$1.9M). The coexistence of large call premium and front-dated put demand is consistent with dealers being short premium on the upside and cautious on the downside, producing a nuanced hedging environment.

OI clusters: Largest OI clusters create a long-dated put floor in the $6780 band (largest single OI $75 PUT = 45,105) and a near-term put concentration at $110 (18,251 OI). Call OI clusters at $120, $130 and $135 map to short-term pin/resistance potential, while the 7/17 $180 call flow introduces an asymmetric long-dated upside tail.

Hedging evidence: Clear: (1) front-dated ITM/near-ATM put activity on 4/15 ($123/$122/$121) signals immediate protective hedging or expiry rolls, (2) large long-dated put OI at low strikes indicates structural tail-hedges, and (3) concentrated call buying in the 11025 band will trigger dealer short-call hedging into near-term pin levels.

Max pain context: Current max pain pins are near $127 (4/15) and $110 (4/17). Flow is pulling premium into the $115–$125 area (call side) while large put OI and front-dated put activity keep the $110 pin/magnet live for the immediate next-week expiry.

Signal vs Noise

~Very large-volume prints at extremely OTM strikes with near-zero last prices (USO260515P00025000, USO260424C00190000) look like lottery/spec flows or liquidity sweeps and are unlikely to force dealer hedging — treat as low-notional noise despite headline contract counts.

~Heavy same-day expiry volume (USO260415* strikes) can be expiry management (rolls/closes) — check whether OI increased (fresh opens) or decreased (closes) before treating as new directional conviction.

~Long-dated put blocks (e.g., 2026-07-17 $75) are likely institutional tail hedges or part of structured collars — they establish structural downside protection but are not immediate directional pressure.

~Some mid/long-dated call prints at distant strikes may be part of multi-leg structures; isolated call prints without corresponding put or underlying stock activity should be treated cautiously.

Key Conclusions

🔎Net premium is strongly call-biased (+$34.7M) focused on $115–$120, but the position book remains put-heavy by OI (P/C OI 1.58) creating a bifurcated market: short-term bull flows vs structural downside protection.

⚖️Short-term outcome hinges on front-dated expiry activity — continued front-dated put buying would invalidate the call-lean; if call demand persists and dealers short-call hedge, expect upward pressure toward the $125–$130 pin zone.

🛡️Presence of sizable long-dated puts at low strikes (notably $75 OI concentration) confirms institutional tail-hedging — downside is structurally capped further out even if near-term volatility spikes.

Read the Flow analysis for USO for 2026-04-15. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.