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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $84.22EOD only
Max Pain
$85.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.54
0.6% from close
Price Gap
+0.78
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
19
Low premium
P/C OI
0.76
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
TLT AI Consensus Report
Analysis based on market close April 7, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 7, 2026. A newer ai consensus report is available for May 21, 2026.

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Conviction
5.5

out of 10

Score 5.5 because dealer gamma and max-pain alignment materially bias price toward $86, but conviction is tempered by low IV (limits edge), mixed institutional flow that can overwhelm the pin, and imminent short-dated expiries that could trigger a pin-release — any of which would invalidate the setup quickly.

Where Perspectives Agree

Short-term pin to $86 is the dominant view: dealer gamma positioning creates a magnet around $86 that favors mean reversion and favors defined-risk premium-selling into the pin.

Where They Diverge

Flow signals of institutional selling at higher strikes and a negative net premium read directly undercut the bullish continuation implied by the gamma pin (flow pressure could turn pin into forced drift). Separately, near-week expiries (Apr 8/10) create event risk that conflicts with aggressive multi-week premium-selling — one persona flags a binary pin-release while theta wants to harvest time decay.

Top Trade
via theta

Sell 2026-04-24 $86/$84 put spread for ~credit (theta trade targeting pin and limited downside exposure).

Key Risk

A decisive break and daily close below $85.50 (triggering dealer gamma flip) removes the pin, causing downside acceleration toward $84/$83 gap support and invalidating the premium-selling thesis.

How to Use These Reports
This ai consensus reflects the market close on April 7, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.