SPOT Flow Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

4 / 10

base 3; +1 for consistent net negative premium; +0.5 for P/C >1; -0.5 for low volume/thin flow

Watch next session: Flow into $460-$480 puts for April expirations; Any call buying to defend the $500 level

Flow Summary

Net premium: -$18.8M bearish

P/C volume ratio: 1.06 — slight put lean

P/C OI ratio: 1.02 — neutral positioning

Net premium is decisively negative, indicating more money was spent on puts than calls. The flow is mixed but with a bearish tilt, as institutions show willingness to pay for downside protection, especially at elevated strikes far OTM.

Notable Prints

SPOT 4/17/26 $460 Put

Vol: 704

OI: 256

Vol/OI: 2.8x

IV: 45.9%

Notional: ~$340k (est. mid-price $0.97)

Intent: Fresh downside protection or bearish directional bet

Dual read: Bought (bearish) or sold/covered (neutral-bullish)

Read-through: This is the most significant single print. A 2.8x OI build at a strike ~5% below spot ($485) for a near-term expiration suggests a trader is positioning for a move lower or hedging a long position. The elevated volume vs. OI points to new positioning.

SPOT 7/17/26 $240 Put

Vol: 350

OI: 196

Vol/OI: 1.8x

IV: 72.6%

Notional: ~$70k (est. mid-price $0.40)

Intent: Long-term tail-risk hedge

Dual read: Bought (catastrophic hedge) or sold (yield generation)

Read-through: This is a deep OTM put (~50% below spot). The high IV (72.6%) suggests it's expensive. Buying here is a pure insurance play against a major crash. Selling would be a high-risk yield play. Given the net negative premium flow, buying is the more consistent read.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Minimal evidence of aggressive call buying. Top premium flow is negative across most strikes.

Put additions: Protection buying evident in the $460P (April) and deep OTM puts ($240P July). Large net negative premium at strikes $530-$920 suggests put buying/opening at elevated levels.

GEX/DEX consistency: Partially consistent. GEX is positive but very small (+$0.6M), indicating a weak pinning force. The bearish flow (negative premium) is at odds with the slightly positive GEX, suggesting flow is more influential than dealer positioning here.

OI clusters: Major call OI at $600 (3,043) and $500 (1,909). Major put OI at $410 (2,079) and $350 (1,926). This creates a wide range: a $500 call magnet/wall and a $410 put magnet.

Hedging evidence: Yes. The $460P and $240P prints are classic protective put structures. The massive net negative premium at strikes $700-$920, while likely part of complex structures, also indicates paid premium for far OTM protection.

Max pain context: Spot ($484.91) is below the nearest max pain ($490 for 3/27). The MP trend rises to $500+ in later expiries, suggesting OI gravity may pull price higher over time, conflicting with today's bearish flow.

Signal vs Noise

~The enormous net negative premium at strikes $700-$920 (e.g., -$5.4M at $700) is likely noise from structured products, collars, or ratio spreads. It's too far OTM (>45%) to be a pure directional signal for near-term trading.

~The $105 Call with +$1.4M net premium is almost certainly a leg of a complex trade (e.g., a diagonal, calendar, or part of a conversion) and not a bullish bet on SPOT hitting $105.

~Low overall volume (14,992) means individual prints carry more weight but the sample size is small. A single large institutional roll or hedge can skew the daily picture.

Key Conclusions

⚠️Flow has a bearish tilt with net negative premium, but confidence is low due to thin volume and structured product noise.

🛡️Institutions are actively buying puts for protection ($460P) and tail-risk hedging ($240P), not aggressively buying calls.

🧲OI creates conflicting magnets: $500 (call wall) vs. $410 (put wall). Max pain suggests a drift higher, but flow suggests fear of a move lower.

Read the Flow analysis for SPOT for 2026-03-31. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.