Term structure: Humped at 2-day (56.5%), dips to 43-45% in April, spikes again in May (55-57%).
Spot vs MP: Spot $484.91 is 1.0% below nearest max pain ($490 for 3/27).
GEX regime: Pinning (Total GEX +$559K). Positive GEX suggests mean-reverting, pinning behavior.
Gamma flip: ~$410.00 — Estimated at ~$410 based on put OI concentration. Below this level, dealer hedging could amplify downside moves.
OI concentrations: Major Put Walls: $410 (2,079 OI), $350 (1,926 OI), $340 (1,718 OI). Major Call Walls: $600 (3,043 OI), $500 (1,909 OI).
#1put spread
Sell $410/$405 Put Spread, exp 2026-05-15 (45 DTE)
Targets the largest put OI wall ($410) for strong support. High IV (53.3% ATM) provides attractive credit. 45 DTE is ideal theta decay zone. Position is well below spot (~15%) and above the gamma flip.
Mgmt: Close at 65% max profit. Exit if SPOT closes below $425. Roll only if credit >50% of original. Assume wide bid-ask; use limit orders near mid.
#2cash-secured put
Sell $460 Put, exp 2026-04-17 (17 DTE)
Shorter DTE captures rapid theta decay in high IV (45.6% ATM). Strike is ~5% below spot, offering a margin of safety. Unusual activity noted at the $460 put for this expiry, indicating institutional interest.
Mgmt: Close at 75% max profit. Be prepared to take assignment if tested. Exit if SPOT breaks below $475. Credit estimate assumes wide spread.
#3call credit spread
Sell $500/$505 Call Spread, exp 2026-04-24 (24 DTE)
Defined-risk bearish play against the major $500 call OI wall. Spot is below this level, and max pain for this expiry is $500, reinforcing resistance. IV of 43.9% is still elevated.
Mgmt: Close at 60% max profit. Exit if SPOT closes above $495. This is a lower-probability play than the put spreads; size smaller.
#4iron condor (illustrative)
Sell $460/$455P x $500/$505C, exp 2026-04-17 (17 DTE)
Illustrative only due to low liquidity. Combines the put support ($460) and call resistance ($500) themes into one range-bound play. Positive GEX environment supports this structure.
Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit. Exit entire position if either short strike is breached. Execution risk is high; leg in carefully with limit orders.
!**Low Liquidity / Wide Spreads:** With only 164 active strikes and 134k total OI, bid-ask spreads will be wide. All credit estimates are theoretical; assume fills will be at the lower end of the range.
!**Earnings Date (Tentative):** Earnings estimated for 2026-04-28. Close or roll all short premium positions at least one week prior to avoid earnings IV crush and gap risk.
!**Gamma Flip at $410:** A break below $410 could lead to accelerated selling due to negative dealer gamma. This is the key invalidation level for all put-selling strategies.
!**Mixed Flow & Net Negative Premium:** Net premium flow is -$18.8M, with heavy put buying at high strikes ($700+). This suggests some institutional hedging or bearish positioning in the wings.
!**Unusual Put Activity:** Large volume in the $240 Put for July (IV 72.6%). This is a deep OTM hedge but indicates tail risk concerns among some participants.