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SPOT

Spotify Technology S.A.Close $433.32EOD only
Max Pain
$440.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$25.02
5.8% from close
Price Gap
+6.68
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
33
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.17
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
4/4
Partial coverage
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SPOT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
SPOT Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected around 4/28, with IV sharply elevated in the May 1 expiration (55.4% vs ~44% in surrounding weeks). The high IV and historical tendency to beat estimates support a long volatility or directional strategy, but the lack of a confirmed date and significant IV crush risk make premium-selling strategies viable for those with higher risk tolerance.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +1.5 high IV (59%) and clear term structure kink; +0 historical beat rate; -0 no explicit earnings date
Most important: IV term structure shows a clear kink at the 5/1 expiration (31 days out), strongly implying an earnings event. The 55.4% IV there is ~12 vol points above nearby expirations.
⚠️Earnings date 4/28 is inferred from IV kink at 5/01 expiration. Not yet confirmed by company.
📊Historical EPS Beat Rate: 75%. Positive directional bias for earnings reactions.
💥Major net put flow at strikes $700+. Indicates significant tail risk hedging in the market.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (IV 59%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$0.6M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem $-18.8M, P/C 1.06)
Spot vs MP
Below max pain by 1.0% (spot $484.91 vs MP $490)
Gamma flip: ~$410.00 — Below $410, dealers may amplify downside moves due to put OI concentration.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-28 (28 days)inferred (IV kink at 5/1 expiration, 31 DTE, aligns with 4/28 est.)

Expected moves:

  • 5/01 (31d): ±$62.58 (12.9%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp kink at 5/01 (31d) to 55.4% IV, vs ~44% in 4/24 and 5/08 expirations.

Crush estimate: ~12-15 vol points, back to ~43% (post-earnings IV level).

Skew: Net premium flow is negative (-$18.8M), suggesting more put buying/hedging overall. P/C ratio of 1.06 shows slight put skew.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Insufficient price history data to calculate.

Directional bias: Insufficient price history data to determine.

Key Levels

1$410 gamma flip / put OI wall
2$500 call OI wall
3EM: $422.5 - $547.5 (approx, based on 5/01)
4Max Pain 5/01: $465

Flow Highlights

Massive net put premium at high strikes ($700, $740, $840) — millions in net negative flow.

Institutional hedging or speculative downside bets far OTM, creating a long volatility tail risk.

Unusual Put: 4/17 $460 Put (Vol=704 vs OI=256).

Earnings-week downside protection or speculation, targeting a ~5% drop from spot.

Strategies

Long Straddle (Earnings Play)
Buy $485 straddle 5/01
Max loss: $62.58
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: $422.43 / $547.58
Trigger: Enter 5-7 days before inferred earnings date (4/28), if IV hasn't risen >60%.
High IV (55.4%) is pricing a big move. Historical 75% EPS beat rate suggests potential for positive surprise and gap. Strategy captures directional ambiguity.
Outperforms: Stock moves >12.9% (exceeds the priced-in expected move).
Underperforms: Stock pins near $485 and IV crushes sharply post-earnings.
Strangle Sale (IV Crush Play)
Sell $420 Put / $550 Call strangle 5/01
Credit: $18.00-$22.00
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $20.00
BE: $402 / $568
Trigger: Enter 3-5 days before earnings, ideally on an IV spike.
Sell elevated IV with wide breakevens (~1.2x the expected move). High credit provides cushion. Risk defined by capital requirement.
Outperforms: Stock stays within a ~15% range ($402-$568) and IV crushes post-earnings.
Underperforms: Stock gaps beyond breakevens, especially below $410 gamma flip.
Bullish Call Spread (Directional Bet)
Buy $485 Call / Sell $510 Call 5/01
Debit: $12.00-$15.00
Max loss: $15.00
Max gain: $10.00
BE: $497.00
Trigger: Enter on any dip into $475-$480 zone before earnings.
Lower-cost directional play leveraging high historical beat rate. Targets a move to the upper half of the expected move range. Defined risk.
Outperforms: Stock rallies post-earnings, closing above $497 at expiration.
Underperforms: Stock falls or stays flat, suffering IV crush and time decay.

Risk Assessment

!Gap Risk: High. 12.9% expected move is significant. A break below $410 gamma flip could trigger accelerated selling.
!IV Crush: Severe. ~12-15 vol point drop expected post-earnings, punishing long premium holders.
!Liquidity: Moderate. OI/Volume sufficient for analysis but not exceptional. Wider spreads possible on far OTM strikes.
!Date Uncertainty: Earnings date is inferred, not confirmed. Mis-timing could lead to decay in long positions.

What to Watch

?Confirmation of earnings date (likely 4/28 AMC).
?IV trajectory in the 5/01 expiration into the event.
?Spot price action relative to $410 and $500 levels.
?Unusual OTM put flow for signs of increased hedging.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.