Home Options SOXLReports

SOXL

Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3XClose $279.29EOD only

Max Pain

$215.00

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$58.30

20.9% from close

Price Gap

-64.29

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

1.52

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

5.5/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SOXL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 18, 2026 close

SOXL Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 18, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

SOXL faces bearish bias from max-pain pinning at $210 (expiry 6/18) and $215 (6/26, 7/2), with dealer gamma positive but flip near $200. High vol and mixed flow support downside grind toward support; leverage magnifies moves. Confidence base 8/10 reflects strong GEX/flow alignment offset by spot 33% above MP and elevated VIX.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 gamma pinning; -1 spot far from MP; +1 VIX 16.

Supports: Bullish: High vol can sustain IV; dealer gamma positive ($12.6M) pins near MP; QQQ strength (+2.51%) lifts tech.
Conflicts: Bearish: Spot 33% above MP; gamma flip at $200; max pain pins attract price lower; flow mixed with put OI heavy.

🎯Max pain pins at $210 (6/18), $215 (6/26, 7/2) pull spot lower.

⚠️Dealer gamma flip ~$200 is key downside risk despite +GEX.

📊High IV (regime High) vs VIX 16.4; premium selling attractive if range holds.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

Vol is High due to leveraged ETF nature and semiconductor sector events; IV elevated vs typical range.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Gamma is Pinning with GEX +$12.6M; max pain attracts spot; gamma flip near $200 is imminent downside risk.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Flow is Mixed with dealer DEX +34.1M shares (long) but put OI concentration 28.4% below spot indicates hedging pressure.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot Above MP; 33% above $210 max pain suggests mean-reversion potential toward dealer gamma flip.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Expiry-day pinning (6/18) with subsequent weekly expiries (6/26, 7/2) concentrates risk near term; high vol and gamma dynamics expected to resolve within a few days.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$220.99$337.59

Range $220.99-$337.59; bias toward low end due to max-pin pinning and gamma flip below.

Next 2 weeks

$200.54$358.04

Range $200.54-$358.04; gamma flip at $200 is major target; resistance at $300 and $358.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $210 (2026-06-18); $215 (2026-06-26); $215 (2026-07-02)

EM guardrails: 1w $220.99/$337.59

Support: $200.54

Resistance: $300.00 · $358.04

Gamma flip: ~$200.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 3,626 (28.4% below spot)

Structural: Max pain pins: $210 (6/18), $215 (6/26, 7/2); EM guardrails: 1w $220.99/$337.59; support: $200.54; resistance: $300, $358.04; gamma flip: ~$200 (put OI conc.).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+12.6M

DEX: +34.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$200 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 3,626 (28.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$12.6M, DEX +34.1M shares; gamma flip ~$200. Positive gamma near max pain but heavy put OI suggests downside hedging.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: SOXL IV is rich vs VIX (16.4) due to 3x leverage and sector vol; offers premium selling but rapid moves can spike IV.

Term structure: Front-end IV elevated around weekly expiries (6/18, 6/26, 7/2); backwardation expected post-event.

Skew: Put skew elevated; consider put credit spread at $200 support or short vega to capture high premium if spot holds.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$294M, put/call vol ratio 1.72 (bearish), OI ratio 1.52; overall put-heavy flow.

Directional prints: 33.4 call 282.5 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 13.5, aggressive call buying; likely bought, bullish speculation. 51.5 put 270 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 12.9, high put volume; likely bought, bearish hedge. 39.4 put 275 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 8.6, put accumulation; likely bought, bearish.

Unusual: 173 put 270 OTM 2026-06-26 — Extreme IV 173%, premium $25; anomalous; likely bought, unusual. 127.1 put 252.5 OTM 2026-06-18 — Deep OTM, IV 127%, vol/OI 6.9; likely bought as lotto. 104.3 put 260 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol 3500, IV 104%, deep OTM; significant bearish flow.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot breaks below $200 gamma flip, triggering acceleration lower.

!Sector reversal after QQQ rally; leverage amplifies losses.

!IV crush if thesis resolves quickly; long premium positions lose value.

!Unexpected positive semiconductor catalyst pushes spot above $300 resistance.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-02 $247.50/$220.00 put spread Why now: High put/call ratio and negative net premium align with bearish thesis; leveraged ETF magnifies moves, suited for defined-risk debit spread.	Spot rallies on sector reversal; leverage amplifies losses on short put leg; IV crush hurts if move delayed.
Call credit spread	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-07-02 $350.00/$385.00 call spread Why now: Bearish flow and high IV support credit sale; defined-risk avoids catastrophic loss if rally occurs.	Upside surprise from semiconductor catalyst; limited profit but defined loss still painful if short strike breached. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-07-02 $247.50/$220.00 put spread

Buy $247.50 put, sell $220 put on 7/2 expiry to profit from downside.

Why this play: High put/call ratio and negative net premium align with bearish thesis; defined-risk debit spread suited for leveraged ETF.

Debit: $8.91-$10.89

Max loss: $10.89

BE: $236.61

Mgmt: Close if spot breaks below $200 or holds above $275; consider rolling to further out expiries.

Traders expecting continued bearish drift with defined max loss.

Call Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-02 $350.00/$385.00 call spread

Sell $350/$385 call spread to collect premium on capped upside.

Why this play: Bearish flow and high IV support credit sale; liquidity risk noted but eligible.

Credit: $5.58-$6.82

Max loss: $28.18

BE: $356.82

Mgmt: Monitor spot above $350; buy back if rally threatens short strike. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.

Traders wanting income with moderate bearish view but liquidity tolerance.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF spot breaks below $200.00 (gamma flip) → THEN buy 2026-07-02 $247.50/$220.00 put spread (bear put spread, rank 1)

IFIF spot rallies above $300.00 (key resistance level) → THEN sell 2026-07-02 $350.00/$385.00 call spread (call credit spread, rank 2)

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIF spot holds above $275.00 for two consecutive days → THEN roll bear put spread to further out expiries

Exit Triggers

EXITIF spot breaks below $200.00 (gamma flip) → THEN close bear put spread

EXITIF spot rallies above $350.00 (short strike of call spread) → THEN buy back call credit spread

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias from max-pain $210-$215 and dealer gamma flip ~$200. Leverage magnifies moves. Top plays: bear put spread (buy $247.50/$220 put) and call credit spread (sell $350/$385 call). Focus on downside toward $200 support; exit if spot breaks $200 or rallies above $350.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 18, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.