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SOXL

Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3XClose $262.70EOD only
Max Pain
$220.00
Next expiry Jun 5, 2026
Expected Move
±$9.35
3.6% from close
Price Gap
-42.70
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
49
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.51
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 4, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SOXL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 4, 2026 close
SOXL Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 5, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish thesis: dealer -$12M GEX, bearish flow, high vol. Spot 19% below $225 MP. Target low end 1w $143.86, 2w $133.49.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
Base 5 +2 GEX/flow -1 spot vs MP +0.5 VIX = 6.5.
Supports: Neg GEX, bearish flow, high vol
Conflicts: Gamma flip ~$150, DEX long delta
📉Dealer short gamma amplifies selloffs; resistance near $210-$225
⚠️Gamma flip ~$150 could trigger reversal

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High vol from VIX 21.5 & leveraged ETF
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending, -$12M GEX, dealer short gamma
Flow Regime
Bearish
Bearish, net premium negative
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot 18.9% below $225 MP
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Max pain concentrations 6/5, 6/12, 6/18 guide downside

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week
$143.86$221.21
Target $143.86
Next 2 weeks
$133.49$231.59
Test $133.49 if $170 fails

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $225 (2026-06-05); $210 (2026-06-12); $140 (2026-06-18)
EM guardrails: 1w $143.86/$221.21
Support: $170.00 · $133.49
Resistance: $231.59
Gamma flip: ~$150.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 6,224 (17.8% below spot)
Structural: Support $170, $133.49; resistance $231.59; gamma flip $150

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-12.0M

DEX: +35.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$150 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 6,224 (17.8% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$12M (short gamma), DEX +35.4M shares long delta

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX due to leverage

Term structure: Kinks at max pain $225, $210, $140

Skew: Bearish skew; put spreads favored

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$221M (bearish), P/C vol ratio 1.51, OI ratio 1.60, indicating strong bearish flow.

Directional prints: 124.5 put 176 OTM 2026-06-05 — Vol/OI 11.1, IV 124.5%, high vol relative to OI; likely bought puts (bearish).

Unusual: 137.5 call 227.5 OTM 2026-06-05 — Vol/OI 21, IV 137.5%, extreme flow; likely sold calls (bearish) given net premium. 90.6 call 210 OTM 2026-06-05 — Vol/OI 20.2, IV 90.6%, heavy volume; likely sold calls (bearish). 130.3 call 205 OTM 2026-06-05 — Vol/OI 18.9, IV 130.3%, notable activity; likely sold calls (bearish).

Risks & Catalysts

!Squeeze at gamma flip ~$150
!Break above $221.21 resistance
!Bullish catalyst in semis

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate
Buy 2026-06-26 $170.00/$139.00 put spread
Why now: Dealer -$12M GEX, bearish flow, P/C vol ratio 1.51. Defined risk with high vol environment.
If stock rallies, loss limited to premium paid; time decay hurts long put. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Volume below 5.
Long putModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-06-26 $170.00 put
Why now: Bearish flow and dealer GEX; put IV elevated, potential for IV expansion on further drop.
Time decay if stock stagnates; IV crush if volatility subsides.

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread for Defined Risk
Buy 2026-06-26 $170.00/$139.00 put spread
Buy $170/$139 put spread to profit from expected drop while capping risk.
Why this play: Strong bearish flow and dealer GEX support downside; high vol makes defined risk preferable.
Debit: $12.13-$14.82
Max loss: $14.82
BE: $155.18
Mgmt: Set stop at invalidation $231.59; consider closing near target $133-$143. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Volume below 5.
Traders seeking defined risk bearish exposure in high vol environment.
#2
Long Put for Maximum Downside
Buy 2026-06-26 $170.00 put
Buy $170 put to benefit from continued decline and potential IV expansion.
Why this play: Alternative for traders willing to accept higher vega and unlimited risk due to extreme bearish bias.
Debit: $23.00-$28.11
Max loss: $28.11
BE: $141.89
Mgmt: Monitor IV; take profits on sharp drops; stop if spot breaks resistance $221.
Aggressive bearish traders expecting high volatility expansion.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFSpot < $170 support → Buy bear put spread: $170/$139 put spread on SOXL
Adjustment Triggers
ADJSpot reaches $143.86 (1w target) → Close half of bear put spread position
ADJSpot reaches $133.49 (2w target) → Close remaining bear put spread
Exit Triggers
EXITSpot > $231.59 resistance → Close bear put spread for loss

Tactical Summary

Bearish thesis with dealer -$12M GEX and bearish flow. Key levels: support $170, $133.49; resistance $231.59. Favor bear put spread for defined risk. Entry on break below $170, exit above $231.59. Take partial profits at $143.86 and $133.49. Monitor gamma flip $150 for potential squeeze.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 5, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.