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SOXL

Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3XClose $201.68EOD only
Max Pain
$207.50
Next expiry Jun 12, 2026
Expected Move
±$33.35
16.5% from close
Price Gap
+5.82
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
61
High premium
P/C OI
1.47
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 9, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SOXL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 9, 2026 close
SOXL Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 10, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

SOXL is in a high-vol, trending regime below max pain ($200) and gamma flip (~$170), with negative dealer gamma. Bearish bias near-term as spot remains under pressure from semiconductor selloff (QQQ -2.0%) and VIX elevated at 22.2. Confidence base 3, lowered due to GEX/flow contradictions and 9.7% distance from MP. Supports at $170 and $120.77; resistance $240.52.

Confidence:
3 / 10
Base 5, -1 GEX/flow contradict, -1 spot 9.7% from MP. Net 3.
Supports: Below MP and gamma flip, high vol favors downside. Negative dealer gamma amplifies moves.
Conflicts: Positive delta (+34.1M shares) provides offsetting bullish hedging. SPY/QQQ selloff may be overextended.
📉Spot well below $200 MP; puts building at $170 (gamma flip).
⚡High vol regime: term structure in backwardation? Event risk near OPEX.
🔄Mixed flow: negative gamma but positive delta; dealer hedging dynamics.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High: IV elevated vs VIX (22.2), reflecting leveraged ETF structure and semiconductor volatility.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending: Negative gamma (-$6M) with flip ~$170. Spot below flip incentivizes dealer hedging to sell declines.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed: Net premium from options not clearly directional. P/C ratio needed but not provided.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Below: Spot ~9.7% under max pain $200 (6/12), suggesting bearish sentiment with less pin attraction.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Event dates (OPEX 6/12, 6/18, 6/26) extend over multi-week window. Range bounds support multi-week holding period.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$152.67$208.62
Gamma flip at $170; below MP $200; high vol favors decline.
Next 1 week
$133.80$227.50
Continued selloff possible; negative gamma amplifies.
Next 2 weeks
$120.77$240.52
Deep support if selloff persists; OPEX shifts pin.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $200 (2026-06-12); $165 (2026-06-18); $185 (2026-06-26)
EM guardrails: 2d $152.67/$208.62; 1w $133.80/$227.50
Support: $170.00 · $120.77
Resistance: $240.52
Gamma flip: ~$170.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 5,618 (5.9% below spot)
Structural: Support: $170 (gamma flip), $120.77; Resistance: $240.52. Max pain pins: $200 (6/12), $165 (6/18), $185 (6/26). EM guardrails: 2d $152.67-$208.62, 1w $133.80-$227.50.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-6.0M

DEX: +34.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$170 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 5,618 (5.9% below spot))

NTM gamma: Net negative gamma -$6.0M with flip near $170. Positive delta +34.1M shares. Mixed hedging pressure: delta-positive but gamma-negative, amplifying directional moves.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV elevated relative to VIX (22.2), typical for leveraged ETFs; rich vs broad market volatility.

Term structure: Likely backwardated due to high near-term event risk (OPEX). Event kinks at 6/12, 6/18, 6/26.

Skew: Put skew elevated; downside volatility expensive. Potential but strategy not required.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium $23.3M, P/C vol ratio 1.57, OI ratio 1.51; bearish put flow dominates.

Directional prints: 179.8 put 155 OTM 2026-07-17 — Vol/OI 19.7x, aggressive put buying; likely bearish hedge or directional downside. 194.8 call 200 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol 3483 vs OI 1345, 2.6x; heavy call buying, possible bullish speculation.

Unusual: 179.8 put 155 OTM 2026-07-17 — Vol/OI 19.7x extremely high; unusual put activity, likely opening. 202.2 call 207.5 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 3.5x; unusual call buying on weekly expiry. 435.2 put 77 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 2.9x, extreme IV 435%; deep OTM put, likely speculative.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break above gamma flip $170 could trigger short squeeze.
!Further sector selloff from QQQ weakness continues.
!Leverage amplifies sharp reversals; stop-runs frequent.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate
Buy 2026-07-10 $160.00/$150.00 put spread
Why now: Negative dealer gamma and heavy put flow support further downside.
Sharp reversal above gamma flip $170 could hurt; use defined wings.
Long putModerate
Buy 2026-07-10 $160.00 put
Why now: Elevated IV and bearish flow make long puts attractive for directional move.
Time decay works against; momentum can reverse quickly.

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-07-10 $160.00/$150.00 put spread
Buy $160/$150 put spread to profit from downside with limited risk.
Why this play: Defined risk, lower capital requirement, aligns with bearish flow and negative gamma.
Debit: $4.28-$5.23
Max loss: $5.23
BE: $154.77
Mgmt: Take profit near $150 or expiry; stop loss above $240.
Traders preferring defined risk and moderate bearish outlook.
#2
Long Put
Buy 2026-07-10 $160.00 put
Buy $160 put to capture leveraged downside move.
Why this play: Higher potential return but unlimited risk; suitable for aggressive bearish bets.
Debit: $24.43-$29.87
Max loss: $29.87
BE: $130.13
Mgmt: Monitor decay and gamma; consider rolling if spot reverses.
Traders with high risk tolerance seeking maximum upside.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFSOXL breaks below $170 (gamma flip) with volume → Buy 2026-07-10 $160/$150 put spread for $4.28-$5.23
IFSOXL retests $170 and fails or immediate breakdown → Buy 2026-07-10 $160 put for $24.43-$29.87
Exit Triggers
EXITSOXL falls to $150 or below → Close bear put spread for max gain ~$4.77
EXITSOXL rises above $240.52 (invalidation) → Close all bearish positions

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias below $170 gamma flip. Enter bear put spread on break or long put on retest failure. Exit at target $150 or stop $240.52. Defined risk spreads preferred.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 10, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.