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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $37.38EOD only
Max Pain
$38.00
Next expiry Sep 11, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.23
3.3% from close
Price Gap
+0.62
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
11
Low premium
P/C OI
0.79
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.5/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Sep 10, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Sep 10, 2026 close
SMCI Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 11, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 11, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness8 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Short put spreads
Invalidation: Spot breaks below $30 gamma flip or VIX spikes above 25.
Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.1% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
IV at ~106% is extremely elevated vs typical stock vol; VIX 19.44 suggests moderate macro vol.
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Front-end contango (1d 90% to 7d 94%) then slight backwardation; overall IV well above historical means.

📈IV at 106% - rich for premium selling; front-end elevated.
📌Dealer long gamma $41.6M supports pinning near $30-$33.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Pinning ($+41.6M)

Gamma flip: ~$30.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 18,122 (6.2% below spot)

OI concentrations: Max pain $33; put OI concentration $20-$30 (floor); call wall $35-$40.

Verdict: Pinning risk elevated: spot at ~$31.71 vs max pain $33. High probability of pinning near $30-$33 due to dealer gamma.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-10 $30.00/$25.00 put spread
Selling $30/$25 put spread near gamma flip, collecting rich premium.
Credit: $1.53-$1.86
Max loss: $3.14
BE: $28.14
Mgmt: Exit at 50% max gain or if spot closes below $30; adjust if VIX spikes above 25.

Risk Alerts

!Spot 3.1% below max pain; pin risk elevated near $33.
!Gamma flip at $30 could trigger hedging if spot declines.
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 11, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.