base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 8.6% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Term structure: Front-week put IV at 173% indicates heavy hedging; term structure is backwardated near term
Spot vs MP: Above
GEX regime: Pinning ($+69.4M)
OI concentrations: Max-pain pins: $40 (6/12), $34 (6/18), $36 (6/26). Heavy call OI $47-$60; put floor $30
#1Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-02 $40.00/$38.00 put spread
Sell 40/38 put spread for near-term expiry, collecting inflated premium with buffer from max pain.
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit or if spot nears $40.50.
#2Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-02 $40.00/$38.00 put wing and $50.00/$51.00 call wing
Sell 40/38 put and 50/51 call spread, profiting from time decay with wide wings.
Mgmt: Exit if spot approaches wings; adjust if IV collapses.
#3Call diagonal
Sell 2026-07-02 $45.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $44.00 call
Sell July 2 call, buy Aug 21 call; net credit with time skew advantage.
Mgmt: Monitor gamma; roll or close before earnings if direction shifts.
!Front-week put IV (173%) signals extreme hedging; potential volatility event
!Spot within 1.3% of $40 max-pain; pin risk elevated near expiration