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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $23.83EOD only
Max Pain
$25.00
Next expiry Jul 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.99
8.3% from close
Price Gap
+1.17
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
28
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.73
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.5/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Jul 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jul 20, 2026 close
SMCI Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 5, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 5, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness7 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Short Put Spread
Invalidation: Spot closes below $40 max pain
Confidence:
8.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 VIX 22

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
IV 94% vs VIX 21.5 (4.4x)
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Front-month expiring, next week IV ~79%, term structure flat

📈High premium relative to VIX, favorable for selling

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+91.1M)

Gamma flip: ~$30.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 17,849 (28.0% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put OI 17.8k at $30; Call OI $50-$60

Verdict: Max pain $40, spot above it; pin possible but downside risk from market drop

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-02 $40.00/$38.00 put spread
Sell 2026-07-02 $40/$38 put spread to collect premium with limited downside.
Credit: $0.75-$0.92
Max loss: $1.08
BE: $39.08
Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or if spot breaches $40.50 invalidation level. Monitor for market downturn below $40.

Risk Alerts

!Market downturn increases put demand and tail risk; watch for break below $40
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 5, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.