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QQQ

Invesco QQQ TrustClose $714.51EOD only

Max Pain

$701.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$6.50

0.9% from close

Price Gap

-13.51

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

1.71

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

7.0/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects QQQ options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 21, 2026 close

QQQ Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 21, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias with pinning action at $710 max pain. Strong dealer long gamma (+$399M) and spot at MP suggest mean-reversion into expiry. Low VIX (16.8) supports stability.

Confidence:

9 / 10

Base 5 +2 GEX/flow alignment +1 GEX pinning +1 spot at MP +1 low VIX = 9/10.

Supports: GEX +$398.6M, spot at MP, VIX 16.8, positive gamma flip far below ($590).
Conflicts: Mixed flow (calls and puts balanced); resistance at $737.56.

📌Spot at Max Pain $710 - pinning setup into expiry.

🟢Dealer long gamma ($399M) suggests low volatility and mean reversion.

⚠️Flow mixed - no clear directional conviction from options flow.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Normal: VIX at 16.8, QQQ IV likely in line with spot vol; no extreme moves expected.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning: GEX +$398.6M, strong dealer long gamma; spot near $710 max pain (21May26). Gamma flip at $590 far below.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed: net premium balanced; puts and calls both active, no skew.

Spot vs Max Pain

At: Spot $710, exactly at max pain for 21May expiry; strong pinning gravity.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Pinning setup into weekly expiry; duration limited to 1-2 days.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$708.01$721.02

Pinning at $710; range $708-$721; breakout unlikely.

Next 1 week

$703.99$725.03

Support at $704, resistance $725; drift upward possible.

Next 2 weeks

$691.46$737.56

Upside bias to $737.56 resistance; support at $691.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $710 (2026-05-21); $701 (2026-05-22); $710 (2026-05-26)

EM guardrails: 2d $708.01/$721.02; 1w $703.99/$725.03

Support: $710.00 · $691.46 · $660.00

Resistance: $737.56

Gamma flip: ~$590.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 107,002 (17.4% below spot)

Structural: Max pain $710 (21May), MP $701 (22May), MP $710 (26May). EM guardrails: 2d $708/$721, 1w $704/$725. Support $710, $691, $660. Resistance $737.56. Gamma flip ~$590 (put OI 107k, 17.4% below spot).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+398.6M

DEX: +254.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$590 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 107,002 (17.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$398.6M (long gamma), DEX +254.5M shares. Gamma flip ~$590 (approx from put OI). Dealers hedge by selling strength, supporting pinning.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: QQQ IV is normal relative to VIX (16.8); no rich/cheap distortion. Low vol environment favors selling premium.

Term structure: Likely contango, with front-month IV at moderate levels; no event kinks visible.

Skew: Put skew slight, no extreme fear. Opportunity: sell puts $690 or calls $730 for theta decay.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium +$822M, near equal put/call volume but heavy 0DTE activity; net bullish bias from ITM call sweeps.

Directional prints: 14.8 call 714 ITM 2026-05-21 — Vol 193k vs OI 1.7k (113x), ITM call sweep buying; likely bullish positioning. 26.4 call 711 ITM 2026-05-21 — Vol 180k vs OI 1.8k (100x), ITM call sweep; directional call buying.

Unusual: 1.9 put 714 OTM 2026-05-21 — Vol 103k vs OI 704 (147x), OTM put opening; bearish hedge or speculation. 2.7 put 713 OTM 2026-05-21 — Vol 99k vs OI 1k (95x), OTM put opening; bearish interest. 7.2 put 709 OTM 2026-05-21 — Vol 164k vs OI 1.9k (87x), OTM put opening; notable put volume.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip deeper than expected (closer to $600) could shift dealer hedging.

!Flow shifts to heavy calls/puts break pin.

!VIX spike above 20 would increase IV and disrupt stability.

!Macro event (e.g., Fed) cracks low vol regime.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-06-05 $690.00/$673.00 put spread Why now: Sell put spread below support to collect premium while defining risk; aligns with mean-reversion and low vol regime.	Unexpected selloff below short strike causes max loss; gamma flip below $705 could accelerate.
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-06-05 $716.00/$731.00 call spread Why now: Buy call spread to express bullish view with limited cost; benefits from pinning but allows upside if breakout occurs.	Time decay if spot stays at $710; requires upside move to profit.
Iron condor	Moderate	Sell 2026-06-05 $690.00/$673.00 put wing and $739.00/$750.00 call wing Why now: Iron condor captures range-bound expectation with defined risk; wings at support 705 and resistance 720 align with pinning.	Breakout beyond wings causes max loss; gamma risk near expiry.

Top Plays

Iron Condor at Pinning Zone

Sell 2026-06-05 $690.00/$673.00 put wing and $739.00/$750.00 call wing

Sell put wing at 690/673 and call wing at 739/750 to profit from low vol and mean-reversion into expiry.

Why this play: Best alignment with pinning action and neutral-to-bullish bias; defined risk and range-bound capture.

Credit: $3.32-$4.05

Max loss: $12.95

BE: 685.95 / 743.05

Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or if VIX spikes above 20.

Traders expecting consolidation around $710 with low volatility.

Bull Call Spread Above Resistance

Buy 2026-06-05 $716.00/$731.00 call spread

Buy $716/$731 call spread to capture potential upside while capping risk.

Why this play: Expresses bullish bias with limited cost; benefits from upside breakout if pinning breaks higher.

Debit: $5.77-$7.06

Max loss: $7.06

BE: $723.06

Mgmt: Exit if spot drops below $710 invalidation level.

Traders with moderately bullish view seeking defined risk.

Put Credit Spread Below Support

Sell 2026-06-05 $690.00/$673.00 put spread

Sell $690/$673 put spread to collect premium with support at $705.

Why this play: Defensive premium collection below support; aligns with mean-reversion but less bullish.

Credit: $1.83-$2.24

Max loss: $14.76

BE: $687.76

Mgmt: Roll if spot approaches $710; close at 50% profit.

Traders wanting downside protection in bullish scenario.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFQQQ stays between $705 and $720 with VIX under 17 for 30 minutes → Sell iron condor: sell 690/673 puts and 739/750 calls for $3.32-$4.05 credit

IFQQQ breaks above $737.56 with volume → Buy 716/731 call spread for $5.77-$7.06

Exit Triggers

EXITVIX rises above 20 → Close iron condor positions immediately

Tactical Summary

Bullish pinning at $710 max pain; low VIX supports range. Key support $710, resistance $737.56. Top play: iron condor (690/673 puts, 739/750 calls). Upside trigger: bull call spread above resistance. Exit if VIX spikes or spot below $710.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 21, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.