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QQQ

Invesco QQQ TrustClose $738.31EOD only
Max Pain
$726.00
Next expiry Jun 1, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.63
0.5% from close
Price Gap
-12.31
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
75
High premium
P/C OI
1.70
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
9.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects QQQ options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 29, 2026 close
QQQ Directional Report
Analysis based on market close April 17, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 17, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Outlook

Bullish-lean: short-term pinning likely as dealers carry meaningful long-gamma and net-delta hedges vs spot; expect contained upside with risk of MP reversion if large directional prints arrive.

Confidence:
8 / 10
Raised by +$1.8B GEX and dealer delta hedges (~+256.5M shares synthetically sold by dealers, ~1.2% notional of free float) that absorb flow; trimmed by spot ~6.2% above MP and episodic large buys.
Supports: Dealer long-gamma + sizable net-delta hedge; concentrated short-dated OI supports pinning; modest positive price drift.
Conflicts: Spot > MP weakens sustainment; occasional large directional buys (>50M shares-sized prints) could overwhelm hedges; VIX ~17 caps skew edge.
📌Dealer GEX +$1.8B with ~256.5M hedged share-equivalent (~1.2% free float) => meaningful near-term pinning
📈Short bands tight (2d 643–654; 1w 644.6–653.1) — contained upside to test 667.9 if momentum continues
⚠️Large prints (>50M share-equivalents) recently occurred; such flow can overwhelm dealer hedges and gap through guardrails

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Normal IV vs history; VIX ~17 not elevated.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Pinning: dealers long-gamma and net-delta hedges (~+256.5M shares hedged, representing ~1.2% notional) concentrated below spot—absorbs moderate buying but vulnerable to outsized flow.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Net premium mixed; recent large buys (~50–80M share-equivalent prints) noted — dealers hedged incrementally but not fully backstopped for sustained heavy flows.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot ~6.2% above MP; dealer hedges promote mean-reversion/pinning near current bands but exposure increases tail risk if flows continue.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Short-term dealer gamma + concentrated OI create pinning within 2-week window; structural breakout requires persistent directional flow beyond dealer hedge capacity.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$643.40$654.30
Pinned inside 643–654 unless large prints exceed ~50M share-equivalent hedging capacity
Next 1 week
$644.57$653.12
Contained upside to ~653–668 if momentum persists and flows remain moderate
Next 2 weeks
$629.82$667.88
Wider outcome: reversion to MP or run to 668 depending on whether dealer hedges are overwhelmed

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $611 (2026-04-17); $620 (2026-04-20); $616 (2026-04-21)
EM guardrails: 2d $643.40/$654.30; 1w $644.57/$653.12
Support: $629.82 · $611.00 · $600.00
Resistance: $667.88
Gamma flip: ~$570.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 109,641 (12.2% below spot)
Structural: 2d guardrails 643.4/654.3; 1w 644.57/653.12. Support 629.8, 611, 600. Resistance 667.88. Gamma flip ~570 (~12% below spot).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+1.8B

DEX: +256.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$570 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 109,641 (12.2% below spot))

NTM gamma: +1.8B GEX; dealers hold ~+256.5M share-equivalent net-delta hedges (~1.2% free-float notional). Recent large flows (~50–80M prints) incrementally consumed hedges — sustained heavy flow could negate pinning capacity.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV roughly in line with VIX; not rich vs market, so premium-selling edge limited.

Term structure: Fairly flat; short-dated expiries show pinning sensitivity near dealer OI clusters.

Skew: Mild skew; tactical short-dated premium sells against dealer pinning or call buys if 1w upper guardrail breaks.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Moderate net premium; slight put bias (P/C vol 1.08, P/C OI 1.48).

Directional prints: 1.8 put 648 OTM 2026-04-17 — Massive same-day 648 puts — aggressive short-dated put buying or large hedges, bearish pressure into close. 1.7 call 649 OTM 2026-04-17 — Very large 649 call flow — sizable call demand or spread activity that offsets some put bias. 2.8 put 647 OTM 2026-04-17 — Heavy 647 puts — extreme same-day activity, likely directional put buying.

Unusual: 14.3 call 647 ITM 2026-04-17 — Elevated IV on 647 calls — could indicate structured trades or gamma exposure without shown volume/OI. 9.7 put 650 ITM 2026-04-20 — Notable multi-day 650 put block — short-dated protection rolling beyond expiry.

Risks & Catalysts

!Large directional prints (>50M–80M share-equivalent) overwhelming dealer hedges
!Spot reversion to MP removing upside momentum
!Macro/VIX spike widening IV and collapsing pinning

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Put credit spreadModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-05-01 $635.00/$613.00 put spread
Why now: Market shows mild short-term bullish pinning, modest net premium and put skew; defined-risk put credit fits range with limited tail risk
Large directional prints could overwhelm dealer hedges and blow past short strikes
Iron condorModerate
Sell 2026-05-01 $635.00/$617.00 put wing and $655.00/$675.00 call wing
Why now: High OI and concentrated net-gamma around 640–655 supports selling defined wings near-term
IV spike or directional print could hit wings quickly
Call diagonalModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-05-01 $665.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $650.00 call
Why now: Near-term IV elevated and concentrated OI; calendar captures theta decay while keeping upside optionality
Sudden gap up increases short-term IV and decay may not offset directional loss
Bull call spreadModerate
Buy 2026-05-08 $645.00/$655.00 call spread
Why now: If momentum resumes within week–month, buy-call spread limits cost vs naked call; pick strikes near dealer deltas
Upside limited; IV rise inflates long leg cost

Top Plays

#1
Short-dated put credit
Sell 2026-05-01 $635.00/$613.00 put spread
Sell defined-risk 635/613 May spread to collect premium while dealers hedge short-gamma; limited tail exposure.
Why this play: Best risk/reward expressing mild short-term bullish pinning and put skew.
Credit: $2.93-$3.58
Max loss: $18.42
BE: $631.42
Mgmt: Manage if QQQ trades below 630 or if large directional prints >50M share-eq occur; buy back into stress
Income traders wanting defined risk and short-duration edge
#2
Near-term iron condor
Sell 2026-05-01 $635.00/$617.00 put wing and $655.00/$675.00 call wing
Sell put and call wings into May expiry to harvest premium with balanced risk.
Why this play: Plays range compression between concentrated net-gamma bands (~640–655).
Credit: $7.86-$9.61
Max loss: $10.39
BE: 625.39 / 664.61
Mgmt: Tighten or hedge if price breaches wings or IV spikes; close into large directional prints
Traders targeting theta with symmetric risk
#3
Short bull call spread
Buy 2026-05-08 $645.00/$655.00 call spread
Buy 645/655 May call spread to capture upside while capping loss.
Why this play: Directional bullish if momentum resumes within week–month with limited cost.
Debit: $5.05-$6.17
Max loss: $6.17
BE: $651.17
Mgmt: Take profit on move >655 or cut if price falls below invalidation ~630
Directional bulls wanting limited risk

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF QQQ trades between 643.4 and 654.3 for 2 sessions AND no large directional prints (>50M share-eq) → THEN enter Put credit spread (2026-05-01): sell 1x $635 / buy 1x $613, target credit 2.93–3.58, risk defined to 2× credit max; size 1 contract per $100k AUM
IFIF QQQ remains confined 640–655 over next week AND no large prints (>50M) → THEN enter Iron condor (2026-05-01): sell 1x $635/$617 put wing and sell 1x $655/$675 call wing, target total credit 7.86–9.61, size 1 condor per $100k AUM
IFIF QQQ breaks above 655 with persistent upside momentum and no large prints → THEN enter Bull call spread (2026-05-01): buy 1x $645 / sell 1x $655, debit target 5.05–6.17, size 1 per $100k AUM
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIF QQQ trades below 630 or a large directional print (>50M) occurs → THEN immediately reduce affected bearish positions by 50%; if unrealized loss >30% of max credit close remaining position; buy 1x protective put at nearest available ≤ strike $615 (same expiry) as hedge
Exit Triggers
EXITIF QQQ breaches wings (below 635 or above 675) or implied vol spikes >15% vs entry → THEN close impacted wing(s) to flat or roll: close to market and, if necessary to maintain risk, buy a protective 1x long option (put if downside breach, call if upside) at one standard strike beyond breach; exit threshold = realized loss ≥50% of max defined risk

Tactical Summary

Tactical: neutral-to-mild-bull bias; sell defined-risk premium inside 643–655 using 2026-05-01 expiries. Use explicit size rules (1 contract per $100k), 50% immediate trim on prints <630 or >50M, protective put at $615, close on wing breach (635/675) or large IV move.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on April 17, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.