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QQQ

Invesco QQQ TrustClose $701.53EOD only

Max Pain

$708.00

Next expiry May 20, 2026

Expected Move

±$7.46

1.1% from close

Price Gap

+6.47

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

1.67

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

5.5/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects QQQ options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

QQQ Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 19, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias near term due to dealer short gamma and resistance at $705, but VIX at 18 provides offset. Mixed flow adds uncertainty.

Confidence:

5.5 / 10

Base 5 from regime; -1 due to GEX/flow contradiction; +1 from spot proximity to max pain; +0.5 from VIX 18 level.

Supports: Spot at max pain $705 provides short-term support; VIX 18 moderate.
Conflicts: Negative GEX suggests dealer hedging pressure; mixed flow and resistance at $705 cap upside.

⚠️Negative GEX of $-384.5M indicates dealers are short gamma, potentially amplifying moves.

🎯Spot at max pain $705 for expiry, suggesting pinning.

📉Resistance at $705 and $728.38 caps upside.

📊VIX at 18 provides some calm.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Vol is Normal relative to recent range, VIX at 18.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Gamma is Trending (net short gamma) with $-384.5M GEX, flip near $590.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Flow is Mixed with negative GEX but positive DEX, put/call activity unclear.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot at ~$705, coinciding with max pain pin for 2026-05-19 expiry.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Today is monthly options expiry; spot positioning around max pain indicates pinning potential.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$694.08$708.99

Expiry day; pin at $705 limits range.

Next 1 week

$693.40$709.67

Post-expiry dealer hedging may push lower.

Next 2 weeks

$674.68$728.38

Wider range; support at $674.68, resistance $728.38.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $705 (2026-05-19); $708 (2026-05-20); $710 (2026-05-21)

EM guardrails: 2d $694.08/$708.99; 1w $693.40/$709.67

Support: $674.68 · $660.00 · $650.00

Resistance: $705.00 · $728.38

Gamma flip: ~$590.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 107,025 (15.9% below spot)

Structural: Support: $674.68 (2w low), $660, $650. Resistance: $705 (max pain), $728.38 (2w high). Gamma flip at $590 (approx). EM guardrails: 2d $694.08/$708.99, 1w $693.40/$709.67.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-384.5M

DEX: +253.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$590 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 107,025 (15.9% below spot))

NTM gamma: Net short gamma of $-384.5M, positive delta of +253.3M shares. Gamma flip at ~$590 based on put OI concentration.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: QQQ IV is at roughly 1.0x VIX, consistent with historical volatility in normal conditions.

Term structure: Term structure is relatively flat with slight backwardation near expiry, indicating no major event premium.

Skew: Put skew is elevated for downside protection; consider selling put spreads below $690.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium +$152.6M with P/C vol ratio 1.13, indicating call premium dominance despite higher put volume.

Directional prints: 24.3 call 697 ITM 2026-05-19 — Vol/OI 204x, aggressive call buying on weakness, bullish. 19.8 call 698 ITM 2026-05-19 — Vol/OI 159x, similar call buying, bullish.

Unusual: 23.2 call 699 ITM 2026-05-19 — Vol/OI 165x, massive new bullish positions. 28 put 703 ITM 2026-05-19 — Vol/OI 89.5x, heavy put buying for downside protection. 2.2 call 703 OTM 2026-05-19 — Low IV suggests selling, possibly spread.

Risks & Catalysts

!Orderly decline below $694 could trigger dealer hedging.

!Unexpected spike in VIX above 20.

!Positive gamma flip from short gamma if spot drops sharply.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-06-05 $700.00/$686.00 put spread Why now: Bearish bias next week with resistance at 705 and put credit dominance. 700/705 put spread fits.	Premature reversal if VIX spikes; defined loss if spot rallies above 705.
Long put	Moderate	Buy 2026-06-05 $695.00 put Why now: Short gamma zone near 705 and bearish flow. Long put captures convexity if dealers hedge.	Time decay and IV crush if move delayed. Unlimited risk if hedged, but defined premium outlay.
Call credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-06-05 $720.00/$735.00 call spread Why now: Resistance at 705 and call premium dominance makes short call spread attractive.	If call buying persists or VIX drops, spread may widen; defined loss above 710.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-06-05 $700.00/$686.00 put spread

Expresses near-term downside bias with capped risk.

Why this play: Most direct bearish play against key resistance at 705; defined risk and low cost.

Debit: $4.25-$5.19

Max loss: $5.19

BE: $694.81

Mgmt: Close if QQQ breaks above 705 or at 50% max gain; roll on volatility spike.

Traders seeking defined-risk bearish exposure.

Long Put

Buy 2026-06-05 $695.00 put

Unlimited upside from downside move but higher premium cost.

Why this play: Captures convexity if dealer hedging accelerates; higher risk/reward potential.

Debit: $9.18-$11.22

Max loss: $11.22

BE: $683.78

Mgmt: Set stop-loss at 50% premium; take profit at key support levels.

Aggressive traders anticipating sharp decline.

Call Credit Spread

Sell 2026-06-05 $720.00/$735.00 call spread

Selling call premium above resistance for income.

Why this play: Less direct as resistance is at 705; profits from time decay if resistance holds.

Credit: $3.19-$3.91

Max loss: $11.09

BE: $723.91

Mgmt: Monitor resistance; close if QQQ approaches 715.

Income-focused traders with mild bearish view.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF QQQ trades below $694 (EM guardrail) and holds for 15 min → THEN buy 2026-06-05 $695.00 put for $9.18-$11.22

IFIF QQQ rallies to $705 and forms bearish rejection candle on 5-min → THEN buy 2026-06-05 $700.00/$686.00 put spread for $4.25-$5.19

IFIF QQQ fails to break above $705 and holds below $700 for 2 days → THEN sell 2026-06-05 $720.00/$735.00 call spread for $3.19-$3.91

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIF QQQ drops below $674.68 (key support) and long put is held → THEN consider taking partial profits or rolling long put down to lock gains

Exit Triggers

EXITIF QQQ trades above $705 on above-average volume → THEN close all bearish positions

Tactical Summary

Bearish near term due to dealer short gamma and resistance at $705. VIX at 18 provides offset. Key support: $694 (EM guardrail), $674.68, $660. Resistance: $705. Use bear put spread (700/686) or long put (695) near $694 breakdown, or call credit spread (720/735) if $705 holds. Exit all bearish if $705 breaks. Risk: sharp drop triggers dealer hedging, VIX spike above 20.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 19, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.