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QQQ

Invesco QQQ TrustClose $738.31EOD only

Max Pain

$726.00

Next expiry Jun 1, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.63

0.5% from close

Price Gap

-12.31

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

1.70

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

9.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects QQQ options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 29, 2026 close

QQQ Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 15, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 15, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with an upside magnet into 635-640 driven by strong bullish net premium (+$1.1B), concentrated short-dated call GEX at 635/640 and positive dealer delta (DEX +242.5M); confidence base 8.0/10. Primary supports: concentrated GEX at $635/$640/$630, strong near-term call premium at $635/$630, and falling max-pain trend. Conflict: spot is 3.1% above the longer-run MP ladder and large put OI clusters at 570600 create a structural left-tail; no override to confidence (confidence_override=null).

Confidence:

8 / 10

Computed from a base of 5.0 plus adjustments: +2.0 (GEX/flow strongly aligned) +1.0 (GEX positive/pinning) -0.5 (spot 3.1% from MP) +0.5 (VIX ~18) = 8.0 total; no additional override applied.

Supports: 1) Near-term GEX concentration at $635/$640/$630 acting as pin magnets; 2) Deterministic net premium +$1.1B with top-ten strike nets contributing ~+$781.2M; 3) MP trend falling (618 605) supporting higher pin pressure short-term.
Conflicts: Large structural put OI at $570 (109,493) and $540 (99,223) creates asymmetric downside risk; spot sits 3.1% above MP which can attract sellers if momentum fades.

📌Near-term pin magnet at $635 (GEX +$59.1M) with heavy call premium at $635 ($230.5M) — favors short-dated call selling or pin-play overlays.

🟢Net premium +$1.1B and P/C volume 0.77 — flow is clearly bullish; buying dips via bull-call or put-credit structures has edge.

⚠️Large structural put OI at $570 (109,493) and $540 (99,223) makes downside non-linear if dealers unwind delta hedges past the gamma flip (~$570).

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Vol: Normal — ATM IVs are muted (Avg IV 26.5%, ATM short-dates 16.9–19.9%) so paid hedges are affordable but not cheap enough for aggressive long vol; day-to-week IVs show a small near-term bid around the 1-2d/9d expiries.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Gamma: Pinning — concentrated short-dated GEX at $635/$640/$630 will bias dealers to hedge toward these strikes, producing pinning behavior intra-day; gamma flip remains near $570, so dealer convexity is intact until moves approach that level.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Flow: Bullish — deterministic net premium +$1.1B, P/C vol 0.77 and heavy call flow at $630-$635 show buying into strength; that supports short-dated premium-selling near the pin or directional buy-the-dip structures.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot vs MP: Above — spot $637.40 sits above the near-term MP pins ($625-$618) and the MP ladder is falling; this creates a local upside magnet to 635-640 while structural MP drift lower keeps 600-615 as a longer-term anchor.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning and bullish flow persist across the next several expirations (GEX concentrations at 630–635 in near-term plus falling MP over 23 expirations), supporting a 2–6 week horizon (30–45 DTE preferred for core trades; weeklies for tactical overlays).

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$633.38$641.42

Expect push into $633.38-$641.42 driven by call GEX at $635 and heavy call premium at $635; break above $641.42 requires surge in fresh buy flow > current net premium.

Next 1 week

$626.96$647.85

1-week guardrails $626.96/$647.85; sustained bid and falling MP trend favor re-test of $647.85; failure below $626.96 signals mean reversion to $615–625.

Next 2 weeks

$616.47$658.33

Range $616.47-$658.33; upside to $658.33 possible if call demand continues, but concentrated long-dated puts and put floor $500-$600 make a >6% sell-off more violent if dealers unwind hedges past $600–570.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $618 (2026-04-15); $625 (2026-04-16); $600 (2026-04-17)

EM guardrails: 2d $633.38/$641.42; 1w $626.96/$647.85

Support: $635.00 · $630.00 · $640.00 · $600.00 · $590.00 · $582.00

Resistance: $658.33

Gamma flip: ~$570.00 — Approx based on put OI concentration of 109,493 (10.6% below spot)

Structural: Distant structural put floor $500-$600 positions beyond short-term should respect this as asymmetric downside support and dealer inventory absorption region.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+1.0B

DEX: +242.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$570 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 109,493 (10.6% below spot))

NTM gamma: Near-the-money gamma imbalance: concentrated positive GEX at $635 (+$59.1M), $640 (+$35.7M) and $630 (+$31.1M) creates a local magnet and reduces realized intraday variance near those strikes; if spot rises +2% (~$650) dealers will sell delta into strength (flattening upside), if spot falls -2% (~$625) dealers will buy delta to hedge calls, which should create mean reversion toward the pin — once spot crosses the gamma flip (~$570) dealer hedging flips and selling accelerates due to large put gamma exposure.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: QQQ ATM IV is slightly rich relative to VIX context on multi-week expiries (Avg IV 26.5% vs VIX 18.17) but short-dated ATM IVs (16.9–19.9%) are low for 1–2 week windows, favoring short-dated premium selling and calendar/diagonal plays to harvest time decay.

Term structure: Term structure shows low 1–2d IV (16.9%) and a modest bump into 9–30d (18.7–20.9%), indicating event-pricing around next-week moves (earnings-like expected moves on 4/16-4/20); steepening beyond 2 months (22–28%) supports selling front-month and buying longer-dated protection (calendars/PMCC).

Skew: Skew: pronounced long-dated put concentration at $570/$540 makes long-dated downside protection expensive on those strikes; mispriced vol opportunity: sell short-dated calls around $635-$640 (weeklies 4/16–4/17/4/24) and buy 30–45 DTE calls (calendar_call or call_diagonal) to capture term-structure steepness — edge: Moderate-Strong.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Deterministic net premium reported as +$1.1B (source field). Breakdown: the top ten net premium strikes listed (635:+181,891,286; 630:+173,096,104; 640:+98,844,520; 629:+77,179,750; 645:+60,959,660; 650:+44,256,938; 628:+40,946,640; 625:+37,879,834; 590:+35,666,034; 575:+30,482,804) sum to approximately $781.2M; the residual ~+$318.8M comes from the remaining mid/OTM call flows and smaller strike nets across the chain, producing the published +$1.1B net bullish figure.

Directional prints: 18.3 put 633 OTM 2026-04-17 — QQQ260417P00633000 633 put heavy print (Vol 17,103, OI 101) preferred read: buyer-initiated short-dated protective puts; alternate read: seller of OTM puts to synthetically sell premium, but overall flow supports protective buy interpretation. 17.7 put 635 OTM 2026-04-17 — QQQ260417P00635000 635 put heavy print (Vol 15,792, OI 100) this print is comparable in size to the 633 put and should be read together: both strikes look like short-dated protective buys, reinforcing a cautious two-sided trade flow around the pin rather than pure one-sided put-selling. 19.1 put 631 OTM 2026-04-17 — QQQ260417P00631000 631 put (Vol 8,997, OI 139) adds to the cluster of short-dated protective activity centered 631635. 16.9 call 635 ITM 2026-04-16 — QQQ260416C00635000 635 call heavy print (Vol 61,064, OI 559) likely directional call buying that reinforces short-dated upside pin pressure; alternative read is closing of short calls but net effect still supports pinning into 635.

Unusual: 6 call 635 ITM 2026-04-15 — QQQ260415C00635000 635 call (Vol 329,355 OI 9,692) huge intraday churn at very low IV; consistent with dealer/gamma activity around the pin rather than clear directional new-long demand.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma pin failure: sharp reversal away from $635 toward $626.96 would flip dealer hedging and accelerate selling into the 1-week guardrail.

!Dealer unwind at gamma flip: breach below ~$570 would invert dealer hedges and accelerate downside given large put OI at $570/$540.

!Short-dated event risk: concentrated prints and expected moves around 4/16-4/20 (±$4–$10) — IV could gap if realized move beats expectations.

!Macro tail: broader risk-off (VIX surge >22) would repriced long-dated put protection and compress call-based pin plays.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Call credit spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-17 $643.00/$645.00 call spread Why now: Heavy call premium and positive GEX at $635/$640 make near-term call selling attractive; short-dated IV is compressed so time decay is efficient; multi-week thesis allows rolling into 30–45 DTE if needed.	Exercise/assignment if stock gaps higher; limited defined risk on upside gap.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-15 $607.00/$581.00 put spread Why now: Bullish flow and falling MP support selling puts 30–45 DTE where IV is richer and carry compensates for put OI concentration; defined risk keeps exposure controlled to the $600 structural area.	Large gap-down through $600 could produce rapid losses; width must respect capital allocation.
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-05-15 $636.00/$660.00 call spread Why now: Spot above MP and sustained call buying supports directional bullish exposure while limiting downside; pick strikes around strong call OI (630/635) to benefit from dealer pinning.	Limited upside vs outright calls; IV rise helps long leg less than naked long call.
Cash-secured put	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-05-15 $607.00 cash-secured put Why now: Favors investors comfortable owning QQQ near $600; net premium and term IV justify collecting for potential assignment with defined target.	Assignment into concentrated downside; needs cash reserve for purchase at strike.
Put credit spread	Conditional	Sell 2026-04-17 $628.00/$623.00 put spread Why now: Near-term pinning around 630–635 compresses downside risk for a few sessions; tight widths and active management reduce assignment risk.	Event or gap risk around 4/16–4/20; requires active management.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy 2026-08-21 $685.00 call + sell 2026-05-15 $660.00 call Why now: Term-structure steepness beyond 2 months makes buying long-dated calls and selling nearer calls efficient for owning upside with reduced cost; protects against long-dated put concentration by reducing cash outlay.	Short-call leg assignment; requires margin and management rolling short calls.
Long put	Conditional	Buy 2026-05-15 $607.00 put Why now: Large long-dated put OI at $570/$540 warns of non-linear downside; owning puts 30–90 DTE gives convex hedging while avoiding the extreme cost of deep long-dated strikes.	Paid hedge cost and potential theta bleed if downside does not materialize; pick expirations aligned to risk horizon.
Bullish risk reversal	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-05-15 $636.00 call / sell 2026-05-15 $615.00 put Why now: Given net bullish flow and cheap short-dated puts relative to long-dated protection, a mild risk reversal finances upside convexity while aligning with dealer pinning behavior.	Short-put leg increases assignment risk and left-tail exposure during fast sell-offs; capital must be allocated for margin.

Top Plays

2–3d call credit spread at 635/645

Sell 2026-04-17 $643.00/$645.00 call spread

Sell 635/645 call credit spread into the pin with expirations 4/16–4/17; tight width and active management required around 4/16 event windows.

Why this play: Directly harvests concentrated call premium and benefits from dealer pinning at 635; defined risk and quick theta make it efficient for short-term premium sellers.

Credit: $0.36-$0.44

Max loss: $1.56

BE: $643.44

Mgmt: Buy back or roll if spot >641.42 or short-call delta >0.35; cut at close if gap above 645 on open.

Active traders comfortable with short-dated assignment risk and quick delta management.

30–45 DTE put credit spread around 620/600

Sell 2026-05-15 $607.00/$581.00 put spread

Sell 620/600 put credit spread with expirations ~30–45 DTE to collect premium while keeping defined downside protection; favors deployment size where assignment at 600 is acceptable.

Why this play: Expresses multi-week bullishness while respecting the $600 structural floor; collects richer premium in 30–45 DTE term where IV is higher.

Credit: $2.50-$3.05

Max loss: $22.95

BE: $603.95

Mgmt: Close or roll wider if spot <626.96; allocate stop if mark-to-market loss >50% of initial credit.

Accounts willing to be assigned QQQ at ~600 or who want consistent income with defined risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf QQQ ≥ $641.42 (Next 2d upper guardrail) then sell 1x 635/645 call credit spread exp 2026-04-17 (short 635 call, long 645 call). → Enter call_credit_spread (S1) with expirations 2026-04-17 short 635 / long 645.

IFIf QQQ falls to ≤ $626.96 (Next 1 week lower guardrail) then buy 30–45 DTE bull call spread long 630 / short 645. → Enter bull_call_spread (S4) targeting expirations in 30–45 DTE with strikes 630/645.

IFIf QQQ retraces to ≤ $620.00 then sell 30–45 DTE 620/600 put credit spread. → Enter put_credit_spread (S2) short 620 put long 600 put ~30–45 DTE.

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf short-week calendar sold at 635 and spot rises above $641.42 then buy back short 635 calls and roll short leg to next weekly 635–645; keep long 30–45 DTE call. → Adjust calendar_call (S3): close/roll short-week 635 to next weekly 635–645 expir.

ADJIf short-dated call credit spread (635/645) mark loss >50% of max loss or spot >$645 then close both legs immediately. → Exit call_credit_spread (S1) by buying back short 635 and selling long 645.

Exit Triggers

EXITIf 30–45 DTE put credit spread (620/600) profit target reached at 50% of credit then close both legs. → Take profit on put_credit_spread (S2) — buy back short 620 and sell back long 600.

EXITIf spot breaches $570 (gamma flip) then close open short premium positions and buy 30–90 DTE puts at strikes 600 or 570. → Close short premium (S1/S3/S6) and enter long_put (S8) targeting 30–90 DTE 600 strike.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: short-dated call selling around $635–640 and 30–45 DTE put selling around $600–620 expresses the bullish, pinning regime while preserving defined risk; invalidation is a decisive break below $626.96 into the 1-week lower guardrail or a breach of the gamma flip near $570. Top plays: short-week calendar (best for tactical theta capture), 2–3d call credit spread (best for active premium sellers), and 30–45 DTE put credit spread (best for income with defined risk).

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 15, 2026.

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