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QQQ

Invesco QQQ TrustClose $701.53EOD only
Max Pain
$708.00
Next expiry May 20, 2026
Expected Move
±$7.46
1.1% from close
Price Gap
+6.47
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
28
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.67
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
5.5/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects QQQ options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
QQQ Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 14, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from May 14, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 19, 2026.

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Outlook

Bearish regime; gamma pins at $710. 1.5% drop on VIX 18 adds downside pressure. High confidence from GEX/flow align. Tail risk: gamma flip at $590. Target 2d low $710.

Confidence:
9 / 10
Base 5 +2 GEX/flow +1 positive gamma +0.5 spot vs MP +0.5 VIX = 9.0
Supports: Bearish flow, pinning gamma, VIX spike, SPY correlation
Conflicts: Positive DEX (+293M shares) may cushion falls
📉QQQ -1.5% on VIX 18.4; bearish momentum intact
📍Max pain $710 today pinning spot; gamma flip at $590 distant
🛡️2d range $710-$726; support $710, resistance $726

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Normal vol: VIX 18.4, QQQ -1.5% but IV not elevated; typical earnings/OPEX
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Pinning: GEX +$475M, max pain $710 today; strong hedging anchors spot
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed flow; put activity elevated, net premium unclear, bearish tilt
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot ~$720 vs MP $710; 1.4% premium suggests reversion to $710
Thesis duration: Event-specific — OPEX pinning on today's expiry drives short-term bias; no structural trend beyond 2d

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$713.17$726.40
Target low $710; resistance $726; break lower if SPY continues
Next 1 week
$707.39$732.19
Range $707-$732; bias to lower end as vol subsides
Next 2 weeks
$694.32$745.25
Range $694-$745; gamma flip at $590 tail risk but unlikely

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $710 (2026-05-14); $653 (2026-05-15); $705 (2026-05-18)
EM guardrails: 2d $713.17/$726.40; 1w $707.39/$732.19
Support: $710.00 · $694.32 · $650.00
Resistance: $745.25
Gamma flip: ~$590.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 106,970 (18.0% below spot)
Structural: Max pain: $710 (5/14), $653 (5/15), $705 (5/18). EM guardrails: 2d $710/$726, 1w $707/$732. Support: $710, $694, $650. Resistance: $745. Gamma flip ~$590.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+475.2M

DEX: +293.0M shares

Gamma flip: ~$590 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 106,970 (18.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$475.2M (positive), DEX +293M shares (long). Gamma flip at ~$590 (put OI). Strong pinning near $710.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: QQQ IV rich vs VIX 18.4; elevated implied vs realized, fear premium persists.

Term structure: Flat to slightly backwardated; front-month elevated due to OPEX, subsequent months normalize.

Skew: Put skew elevated; no clear vol arb opportunity given low IV vs VIX.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net call premium of $507M against put volume ratio 1.46 and OI ratio 1.75 suggests aggressive call accumulation on weakness.

Directional prints:

Unusual:

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at $590: 18% drop reverses dealer hedges violently
!SPY breakdown could accelerate QQQ below $710
!Positive DEX may cap downside near $710
!Low skew means no cheap protection if vol spikes

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Call credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-05-29 $735.00/$745.00 call spread
Why now: High call OI at 710-730 suggests resistance; IV elevated for premium collection.
Upside reversal beyond short strike cap gains.
Long putModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-05-29 $705.00 put
Why now: Net call premium flow and high GEX at 710 support downside.
Time decay if move delayed; position sizing required.
Short strangleConditional
Sell 2026-05-29 $694.00 put + sell $750.00 call
Why now: IV elevated, gamma pin at 710, expected move within 10 points.
Tail risk if gamma flip at $590 occurs.

Top Plays

#1
Long Put
Buy 2026-05-29 $705.00 put
Buy $705 put to profit from expected drop.
Why this play: Direct downside bet, gamma pin at $710, high confidence from flow.
Debit: $6.10-$7.46
Max loss: $7.46
BE: $697.54
Mgmt: Exit if QQQ holds $710 or breaks below 2d low.
Aggressive directional traders.
#2
Bear Call Spread
Sell 2026-05-29 $735.00/$745.00 call spread
Sell $735/$745 call spread for credit.
Why this play: Call OI resistance at $710-$730, IV high for premium.
Credit: $2.62-$3.21
Max loss: $6.79
BE: $738.21
Mgmt: Close near expiration if invalidated above $745.
Moderate bearish view limited risk.
#3
Short Strangle
Sell 2026-05-29 $694.00 put + sell $750.00 call
Sell $694 put and $750 call for premium.
Why this play: IV elevated, expected move small, theta play.
Credit: $6.52-$7.96
Max loss: Unlimited
BE: 686.04 / 757.96
Mgmt: Adjust if QQQ approaches strikes.
Range-bound environment.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFQQQ breaks below $710 on increased volume → Buy $705 put (long_put_002) for entry around 6.10-7.46
IFQQQ rallies to $735 resistance → Sell $735/$745 call spread (bear_call_spread_001) for credit 2.62-3.21
Exit Triggers
EXITQQQ holds above $710 for 2 sessions or breaks below $694 → Exit long put (long_put_002) to manage risk

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias with gamma pin at $710. Prefer long put on breakdown below $710. Alternative bear call spread if rally to $735. Exit if $710 holds or $694 breaks.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 14, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.