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PLTR

Palantir Technologies Inc.Close $136.88EOD only

Max Pain

$135.00

Next expiry May 29, 2026

Expected Move

±$6.08

4.5% from close

Price Gap

-1.88

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.96

Balanced positioning

Consensus

7.5/10

Neutral tilt

Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects PLTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 22, 2026 close

PLTR Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 7, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 7, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 22, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with a short-term pin magnet to $155-$150; Confidence: 5.0/10. Primary supports: concentrated positive GEX at $150/$152.50/$155 (total +$41.2M near spot), heavy call OI at $150/$155 and net premium flow buying calls at $150 (+$7,932,860), and P/C OI ~1.05 (balanced). Conflicts: high Avg IV 60.8% (rich vol) and net premium overall negative $-312.4M indicating institutional protection buying.

Confidence:

5 / 10

Base 5.0; + due to strong near-spot GEX pinning (+$63.7M total) and DEX +84.2M shares; - because mixed flow/net premium negative and elevated IV increases tail risk.

Supports: GEX concentrations at $150/$152.5/$155; call OI clusters at $150/$155; Max Pain near-term $147-$150.
Conflicts: Avg IV 60.8% (rich vs typical equity cycle); net premium negative $-312.4M (protection demand); P/C vol ~1.01 (flow mixed).

📌GEX pinning centered on $150/$152.5/$155 (combined +$41.2M) — creates a near-term magnet

⚠️Avg IV 60.8% is elevated — favors premium sellers if pin holds, but increases short-gamma risk

📈Large retail/professional call concentration at $150 (26,332 OI + multiple prints) implies resistance if spot rises materially

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High vol: ATM IVs 59.4% (3d) → 49.9% (17d) with spikes into the 60s on 31–45d; expensive near-term vol supports premium-selling if gamma remains positive.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning: Total GEX +$63.7M with concentrated positive GEX at $150/$152.5/$155 — dealers will hedge by buying on dips and selling into strength, producing mean-reversion around those levels.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow: P/C Volume ~1.01 and P/C OI 1.05 with large call buys at $150/$155 but net premium -$312.4M suggesting institutional put purchases offset retail call buying — ambiguous directional conviction.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $150.07 is above nearby max pains ($147 on 4/10, $145 on 4/17, $150 on 4/24) which creates mild upside magnet toward $150-$155 in the near term.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — GEX pin concentrations persist across the next two expirations ($150/$152.5/$155) and MP trend shows a modest downward drift but immediate pin is present for 1–4 weeks; prefer 30–45 DTE for primary trades with weeklies as tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$143.62$156.52

Sustained touch above $150 likely draws dealers to sell rallies toward $155 (GEX +$14.9M at $155).

Next 1 week

$139.97$160.17

If spot holds >$147, dealers' positive gamma buying on dips supports range; break < $143 invalidates pin and accelerates downside to $139.97 EM floor.

Next 2 weeks

$137.30$162.85

Sustained flows or fresh call buying above $155 unlocks run toward $160; a break below $139.97 shifts regime toward trend down.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $147 (2026-04-10); $145 (2026-04-17); $150 (2026-04-24)

EM guardrails: 2d $143.62/$156.52; 1w $139.97/$160.17

Support: $147.00 · $145.00 · $140.00

Resistance: $152.50 · $155.00 · $160.00

Gamma flip: ~$120.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,575 (20.0% below spot)

Structural: Structural put floor $100–$130 sits ~20–30% below spot and is the long-tail downside; large long-dated OI around $120 (gamma flip) provides structural support if price collapses.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+63.7M

DEX: +84.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$120 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,575 (20.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: NTM positive gamma concentrated at $150 (+$11.9M), $152.5 (+$14.6M) and $155 (+$14.9M) — dealers will buy spot into dips and sell into rallies; a ±2% move (~$147 / $153) will trigger heavy re-hedging: a 2% down-move -> dealers buy stock (support), a 2% up-move -> dealers sell stock (resistance), amplifying mean reversion around the pin.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 60.8% is high for single-name equity; short-dated IV = 59.4% (3d) vs mid-dated ~49–57% — implies rich near-term skew.

Term structure: Downward-sloping 3d→24d (59.4% → 49.5%) then bump at 31–45d (60.5% at 31d, 57.6% at 45d) — calendar/diagonal opportunities exist selling 31d vol vs 17–24d of lower IV or vice versa; earnings on 2026-05-04 increases May IV.

Skew: Notable skew: cheap calls past $160 but heavy call OI at $150/$155 concentrates gamma; mispriced vol opportunity: sell 31d ATM (60.5%) vs buy 17d ATM (49.9%) — ~+10.6 vol-pt differential favoring calendars.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium negative $-312.4M (institutional protection buyers), but top premium flow shows large positive call flow at $150 (+$7,932,860) and $155 (+$4,259,456).

Directional prints: 51.9 call 150 ITM/ATM? (spot $150.07) 2026-04-10 — High activity: $150 calls large volume (multiple prints, OI 26,332) — could be buys of calls or dealer sales; given net premium negative, interpretation leans toward call-buying by institutions or convertible-hedge flows. 49.5 call 155 OTM 2026-04-10 — Large OI/volume at $155 (20,904 OI, Vol 19,373) — likely directional call accumulation or spread roll; both interpretations possible, more consistent with bullish positioning.

Unusual: 62.5 put 146 OTM 2026-04-10 — Unusual: $146 put vol 8,112 vs OI 1,221 (6.6x) — could be short-dated protection (buy puts) or short put spread sales; overall mixed flow and negative net premium suggests these are put buys (protective).

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip near ~$120 would remove dealer pinning and leave puts as breakout accelerant toward structural floor $100–$130.

!Clustered expiries (4/10, 4/17) with MP at $147/$145 create expiry pin risk and short-gamma convexity this week.

!High ATM IV and negative net premium ($-312.4M) raise cost of buying directional calls and increase risk for naked short premium if volatility re-prices.

!Earnings 2026-05-04 could re-price May/June IV (term-structure bump), complicating calendars and diagonal positions.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy PLTR stock at market	High capital use, vulnerable to volatility; dealers' pinning may cause chop.
Short stock	Weak	Avoid — negative expected move and dealer positive gamma creates buy-the-dip behavior	Against dealer hedging; high short-squeeze risk.
Covered call	Moderate	Buy stock + sell 2026-05-22 155 call (sell higher-time call)	Capped upside at 155; IV rich reduces roll benefit.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-24 150/145 put spread	Gamma flare if price drops <145; limited risk defined.
Long calls (directional)	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-04-24 155 call	Expensive (IV); needs move >~$157–158 to profit; time decay.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-04-24 145/140 put spread	Costly due to elevated IV; better as cheap hedge than directional biased bet.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-24 145/140 put x 155/160 call condor	Vulnerable to IV spike and expiry pin; favorable if pin holds and chop continues.
Calendar / diagonal (sell high-IV leg)	Strong	Sell 2026-05-08 (31d) ATM/near-ATM IV 60.5% and buy 2026-04-24 (17d) ATM IV 49.9% → sell longer-dated leg (higher IV) i.e., reverse calendar	Execution complexity; requires managing vol-term and earnings risk.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2027-03-19 150 call (long-term) and sell 2026-05-22 155 call short (income)	Capital intensive; benefits from positive gamma pinning and time decay on short calls.

Top Plays

Sell 150/145 put spread (defined-risk) — 24d

Sell 2026-04-24 150/145 put spread

Leverages dealer positive gamma and pin at $150; defined risk if gamma pin holds and dealers buy dips.

Credit: $0.90-$1.40

Max loss: $400.00

BE: $149.10

Mgmt: Take profit at 50–70% of max credit; cut if spot <$147 or VIX >30.

Traders wanting defined-risk premium collection

Reverse calendar at 150 (vol arbitrage) — sell 31d, buy 17d

Sell 2026-05-08 150 ATM (IV 60.5%) and buy 2026-04-24 150 ATM (IV 49.9%) — reverse calendar (sell higher IV longer-dated leg)

Exploits ~+10.6 vol-pt differential; benefits if spot remains near pin and long-dated vol mean-reverts post-earnings priced into May.

Credit: $0.50-$1.50

Max loss: Variable (manage via ratio/hedge)

BE: Dependent on width/size; monitor theta bleed

Mgmt: Exit if spread moves >$2 against or if IV differential narrows <4 vol-pts.

Vol-arb traders comfortable with multi-leg execution and earnings exposure

Iron condor short premium (wider wings) — 24d

Sell 2026-04-24 145/140 put x 155/160 call iron condor

Plays mean reversion around pin with defined risk; uses EM guardrails and OI walls at 150/155 as range anchors.

Credit: $1.20-$2.50

Max loss: $4780.00

BE: ~spot ± credit-adjusted wings

Mgmt: Take profit at 40–60% of max credit; tighten or hedge if spot breaches $147 or IV spikes >10%.

Defined-risk sellers comfortable with elevated IV and gamma pin

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $150 and holds >=30 minutes → Sell 2026-04-24 150/145 put spread

IFIf spot rallies to $155 with call OI volume >10k in 30m → Sell 2026-04-24 155/160 call spread or add short call leg to iron condor

IFIf IV 31d (2026-05-08 ATM) >61% and IV 17d (2026-04-24 ATM) <51% → Initiate reverse calendar sell 2026-05-08 150 / buy 2026-04-24 150

Exit Triggers

EXITIf VIX >30 or ATM IV increases >10 vol-pts intraday → Close all short premium trades immediately

EXITIf position achieves 60% of max profit → Close 50–100% of the position to lock gains

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: dealers' positive gamma (+$63.7M) pins PLTR around $150–$155 producing mean reversion — favors defined short premium and vol-arb (reverse calendars); invalidate if price breaks below $143.62 (2d EM) or $140 (1w EM) which would flip dealer behavior and favor directional downside plays. Top plays: 1) Sell 150/145 put spread (24d) for defined premium, 2) Reverse calendar at 150 exploiting ~10.6 vol-pt term premium, 3) Iron condor 145/140 x 155/160 for range sellers — choose based on account size and willingness to manage gamma.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 7, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.