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ORCL

Oracle CorporationClose $178.34EOD only
Max Pain
$150.00
Next expiry Apr 17, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.42
2.5% from close
Price Gap
-28.34
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.70
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Apr 16, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ORCL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 16, 2026 close
ORCL Theta Report
Analysis based on market close April 17, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness7 / 10
Sizing: Conservative
Primary: Defined-risk premium sells (verticals, iron condors)
Invalidation: Spot drops below 160, IV collapses >30% vs current levels, or rapid dealer gamma unwind or forced assignment/margin call
Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 12.9% from MP; +1 VIX 17

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
Avg IV ~63 >> VIX 17; short-dated/skew extreme around expiries
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Steep near-term skew (0–14d blown out), multi-week ATM ~50–56% — structurally elevated

⚠️Short-dated IV spike creates rich near-term premium for sellers
📌Max-pain clustering at 155/150 supports pinning into 4/17, 4/24, 5/1 expiries
💥Early-assignment risk and borrow costs: short ITM short puts/calls may be assigned into stock; borrow/locate and margin can materially widen P/L drawdowns

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+276.4M)

OI concentrations: Max pain pins: 155 (4/17), 150 (4/24,5/1); call OI wall 185–250; limited put depth below spot

Verdict: Pinning regime: concentrated OI near 150–155 increases pin risk into listed weekly expiries, raising short-gamma and assignment probability at expiry

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-06-18 $160.00/$155.00 put spread
Sell 160/155 put spread to collect defined premium while limiting downside; size small vs portfolio to manage early-assignment risk.
Credit: $1.60-$1.95
Max loss: $3.05
BE: $158.05
Mgmt: Close or roll if spot <162 or IV collapses >30%; cut at 160.58 invalidation.
#2
Iron condor
Sell 2026-06-18 $160.00/$155.00 put wing and $185.00/$195.00 call wing
Sell 160/155 put wing and 185/195 call wing to harvest skew while capping risk both sides.
Credit: $4.64-$5.67
Max loss: $4.33
BE: 154.33 / 190.67
Mgmt: Keep conservative size; hedge or unwind if spot nears wings or IV drops >30%.

Risk Alerts

!Earnings/expiry IV repricing into 4/17–5/1: historical short-dated post-expiry IV collapses ~30–50% could wipe ~40–70% of short premium realized value (timing risk around listed expiries)
!Early assignment risk: short ITM options may be exercised before ex-dividend/expiry — creates immediate stock exposure, margin increase and borrow needs impacting P/L
!Margin/borrow & short-gamma bleed: margin hits or locate failures can force buy-ins; concentrated short-gamma into weekly expiries can amplify moves and double realized losses vs theoretical Greeks

Read the Theta analysis for ORCL for 2026-04-17. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.