Term structure: Humped, rising from 46.3% (8 DTE) to a peak near 57.9% (77 DTE).
Spot vs MP: Spot $146.38 is at the max pain of $147 for the 3/27 expiration.
GEX regime: Trending (GEX -$12.7M)
Gamma flip: ~$135.00 — Gamma flip estimated at ~$135. Below this level, negative GEX could amplify downward moves.
OI concentrations: Major Put Wall at $135 (13,007 OI). Major Call Walls at $170 (16,044 OI) and $175 (15,435 OI).
#1put spread
Sell $140/$135 Put Spread for 2026-04-17 (15 DTE)
Sells into high near-term IV (~48.2%). Short strike is below spot and above the major $135 put wall and gamma flip. Defined risk is prudent given the trending GEX regime.
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit. Manage defensively if price closes below $142. Exit entirely on a close below $137.
#2put spread
Sell $130/$125 Put Spread for 2026-05-01 (29 DTE)
Targets peak IV in the term structure (51.5%). Strikes are placed well below the $135 gamma flip and the 29-day expected move low ($129.98). High credit-to-width ratio benefits from theta decay and potential IV contraction.
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit. No management needed until 21 DTE unless spot drops below $132. Exit on a weekly close below $128.
#3iron condor
Sell $140/$135 Put x $160/$165 Call for 2026-04-24 (22 DTE)
Capitalizes on high IV (49.9%) and defined OI boundaries ($135P / $170C). Wings are placed just outside the 22-day expected move ($132.26 - $160.51). Suitable for a range-bound, high-volatility view.
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit. Roll untested side in if price approaches either short strike ($140 or $160). Close if price breaches a short strike by more than $0.50.
#4covered call
Own stock, Sell $150 Call for 2026-04-10 (8 DTE)
For existing shareholders. Sells elevated near-term IV (46.3%). The $150 strike is above spot and the 8-day expected move high ($154.21), offering a good premium buffer.
Mgmt: Close call at 65% profit. Be prepared to roll up and out if stock approaches $150. Watch for early assignment risk near expiration.
!Gamma regime has shifted from PINNING to TRENDING (GEX -$12.7M). This means price moves could be amplified, increasing risk for naked or wide credit positions.
!Massive negative premium flow at high-strike puts ($260P: -$38.5M, $270P: -$27.3M) indicates significant institutional hedging or bearish bets, a cautious signal.
!Unusual activity in deep OTM puts for April ($260P, $250P) with IV >160%. This is extreme tail-risk hedging but contributes to the rich IV environment.
!Earnings estimated for 2026-06-10 (~10 weeks out). Close or roll all short premium positions at least 2 weeks before to avoid earnings IV crush and gap risk.
!Gamma flip estimated at ~$135. A break below this level could see accelerated selling due to dealer delta hedging from the negative GEX.
!Max pain rises to $160 by 4/17, suggesting upward pinning pressure may increase, but the negative GEX currently opposes this.