ORCL
Oracle CorporationClose $189.77EOD onlyMax Pain
$180.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.00
2.6% from close
Price Gap
-9.77
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
41
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.88
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot
This page reflects ORCL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.
Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
ORCL Theta Report
Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026
Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.
You are viewing an older report from April 6, 2026. A newer theta report is available for May 14, 2026.
View latest reportTheta Verdict
Attractiveness8 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Sell reverse calendar spreads to exploit front-end IV spike, supplemented by put spreads
Invalidation: Close below $135 gamma flip or if IV term structure flattens significantly
Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 spot 0.3% from MP
IV Environment
IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
IV 57.2% — extremely elevated
Favorable?
Yes
Term structure: Inverted front-end: 4-day IV 54.5% vs 11-day 50.4% (4.1 vol-point differential), humped at 4/10, dips to ~50% in May
💰Rich IV (57.2%) and inverted front-end term structure create volatility arbitrage opportunities
⚖️4.1 vol-point differential between 4-day and 11-day expirations favors reverse calendar spreads
Pin Risk Assessment
Spot vs MP: At max pain ($146 for 4/10)
GEX regime: Trending (GEX -$15.3M)
Gamma flip: ~$135.00 — Below $135, dealers amplify downward moves
OI concentrations: Call wall $160-$200; Put floor $90-$135
Verdict: Mixed — spot at max pain supports pinning, but negative GEX favors trending. Favor defined-risk spreads and volatility-based plays.
Premium Opportunities
#1
reverse calendar spread
Sell $145 put 2026-04-10 (4 DTE) / Buy $145 put 2026-04-17 (11 DTE)
Exploits 4.1 vol-point differential: sell overpriced front-month IV (54.5%) against lower back-month IV (50.4%). ATM strike $145 aligns with current spot and max pain. Market-neutral structure profits from IV convergence as 4/10 expiration approaches.
Credit: $0.80-$1.20
Max loss: $4.20
BE: Varies with IV; ideal if front-month IV decays faster
Mgmt: Close when front-month IV collapses or at 50% profit. Exit if spot moves >5% from $145. Roll short leg if needed to avoid assignment.
#2
reverse calendar spread
Sell $150 call 2026-04-10 (4 DTE) / Buy $150 call 2026-04-17 (11 DTE)
Capitalizes on same IV inversion: front-month IV 54.5% vs 11-day 50.4%. Strike $150 is near positive GEX pin magnet and above spot, reducing directional risk. Call side benefits from high IV and potential pinning below.
Credit: $0.30-$0.50
Max loss: $4.70
BE: Varies with IV; ideal if front-month IV decays faster
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit or if IV differential narrows to <1 vol-point. Exit if spot breaches $155. Manage early assignment risk on short call.
#3
put spread
Sell $140/$135 put spread 2026-04-24 (18 DTE)
High IV (50.7%) enriches credit. Short strike aligns with near-term put OI cluster ($140) and is above gamma flip ($135). Expected move lower bound is $132.44, providing buffer. Complements volatility plays with directional bias.
Credit: $1.10-$1.30
Max loss: $3.90
BE: $138.90
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit. Exit if spot closes below $135 (gamma flip). Roll only if credit >50% of original.
#4
iron condor
Sell $140/$135P x $160/$165C 2026-04-24 (18 DTE)
Captures high IV across both sides. Range ($135-$160) fits within expected move ($132.44-$158.64). Call side uses $160 call OI wall as resistance. Positive GEX concentrations at $150, $152.50, $155 provide pinning support.
Credit: $1.80-$2.20
Max loss: $3.20
BE: 138.20/161.80
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit. Adjust if spot tests either short strike. Exit entire position if spot breaches $135 or $160.
#5
cash-secured put
Sell $135 put 2026-05-01 (25 DTE)
High IV (52.4%) and large put OI at $135 (13,068 total) create strong support. Strike is at gamma flip, where dealer hedging may slow declines. 25 DTE optimizes theta decay.
Credit: $3.50-$3.80
Max loss: $131.20
BE: $131.20
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit. Roll down and out only if spot breaches $135 and IV remains elevated. Accept assignment if comfortable owning at $135.
Risk Alerts
!Gamma flip at $135 — breach could trigger accelerated selling due to negative GEX regime.
!Earnings on 2026-06-10 (9 weeks out) — avoid selling naked options into this event; close or roll positions before.
!Negative total GEX (-$15.3M) indicates trending environment — pinning may be weaker than usual.
!High IV (57.2%) — while favorable for premium selling, also reflects elevated volatility risk; size positions modestly.
!Unusual activity in deep ITM puts ($250-$300) suggests institutional hedging or directional bets — monitor for increased volatility.
!IV term structure inversion (front-month > back-month) — monitor for flattening, which could reduce profitability of reverse calendar spreads.
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on April 6, 2026.
What the reports do
Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.
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What to remember
These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.
If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.