Term structure: Steeply upward sloping, peaking around 57% in the 79-262 DTE range. Near-term IV (39.8% for 4/02) is still high.
Spot vs MP: Spot $147.11 is at the max pain of $147 for the 3/27 expiration.
GEX regime: Strong Pinning (GEX +$4.2M)
Gamma flip: ~$118.00 — Gamma flip is far below (~$118), indicating the current positive GEX regime is stable and supports pinning near current levels.
OI concentrations: Major Put Wall at $118 (15,377 OI). Major Call Walls at $170 (15,970 OI), $200 (15,597 OI), and $175 (15,440 OI).
#1put spread
Sell $140/$135 Put Spread for 2026-04-17 (17 DTE)
Sells into high IV (~49%) with strong pinning support. The short strike ($140) is below current spot and above the massive $118 put wall, providing a buffer. Defined risk in a high-vol environment.
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit. Manage defensively if price closes below $142. Exit entirely on a close below $138 (gamma flip is far away, but this is the trade's risk level).
#2iron condor
Sell $140/$135 Put Spread x $160/$165 Call Spread for 2026-04-24 (24 DTE)
Capitalizes on the pinning regime and high IV (50.4%). Wings are placed outside the 10-day expected move ($132.41 - $161.81) and between major OI concentrations ($118P / $170C). High probability of success.
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit. Roll untested side in if price approaches either short strike ($140 or $160). Close if price breaches a short strike by more than $0.50.
#3covered call
Own stock, Sell $150 Call for 2026-04-10 (10 DTE)
For existing shareholders. Sells elevated near-term IV (47.1%) against a stock pinned near max pain. The $150 strike is above spot and the 2-day expected move high ($150.78), offering a good balance of premium and upside participation.
Mgmt: Close call at 65% profit. Be prepared to roll up and out if stock approaches $150. Watch for early assignment risk if call goes deep ITM close to expiration.
#4put spread
Sell $130/$125 Put Spread for 2026-05-15 (45 DTE)
Longer-dated trade selling peak IV (51.2%). Strikes are placed well below the gamma flip ($118) and near the 45-day expected move low ($126.31), offering a high credit-to-width ratio. Benefits from theta decay and potential IV contraction over time.
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit. No management needed until 21 DTE unless spot drops below $132. Exit on a weekly close below $128.
!Earnings estimated for 2026-06-10 (~10 weeks out). Close or roll all short premium positions well before this date to avoid earnings IV crush and gap risk.
!Massive negative premium flow at high-strike puts ($260P, $270P) indicates institutional hedging or bearish bets. While far OTM, it signals underlying volatility concerns.
!Unusual activity in deep OTM puts for April ($260P, $250P) with IV >100%. This is likely tail-risk hedging but contributes to the rich IV environment.
!The gamma flip at ~$118 is far below, but a break below major OI support at $140/$135 could see acceleration toward that level due to negative delta hedging from dealers.
!Mixed flow regime (P/C 0.82, net prem -$119.6M) suggests put buying is dominating premium flow, a cautious signal to balance with the strong pinning setup.
!Max pain rises to $162.50 by 4/17, suggesting upward pinning pressure may increase over the next few weeks, favoring put credit spreads over call credit spreads.