thetaOwl

NOW

ServiceNow, Inc.Close $103.07EOD only
Max Pain
$97.50
Next expiry Apr 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$11.50
11.2% from close
Price Gap
-5.57
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.86
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Apr 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NOW options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 22, 2026 close
NOW Directional Report
Analysis based on market close April 23, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Modestly bearish near-term: negative dealer GEX (short gamma) is amplifying downside risk, so expect continuation toward structural supports before any mean-reversion; protective option demand keeps IV elevated.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
Negative net dealer GEX (~-$40M) forces procyclical hedging that amplifies moves; dealers hold offsetting share inventory but GEX-driven hedging currently dominates net delta flow.
Supports: 2d/1w guardrails and structural support at 75.93; put OI concentration
Conflicts: Max-pain pins near 93–98 may cap rallies; mixed trade flow
⚠️Negative dealer GEX (~-$40M) — hedging amplifies downside
📈IV elevated vs VIX ~19 — protection costly but in demand
🧭Spot below active pins; near-term range biased lower toward $82–$78

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV elevated vs typical — front-end protection in demand, richer than market VIX
Gamma Regime
Trending
Dealers short gamma (net GEX negative ~-$40M); hedging is procyclical and currently amplifies directional moves; gamma flip remains near ~$60
Flow Regime
Mixed
Premium flow skewed to puts with concentrated OI; dealers' share inventory provides partial delta offset but net option-driven delta is downside
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot below mid-pain cluster, increasing downside drift probability near-term
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Sustained negative GEX, concentrated put OI and elevated IV support a multi-week biased edge

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$82.13$87.43
Watch $82–$87; dealer hedging could widen moves
Next 1 week
$78.58$90.98
Lean lower toward $78–$91 on procyclical hedging
Next 2 weeks
$75.93$93.63
Range $75.9–$93.6; watch max-pain pins near $93–98

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $98 (2026-04-24); $93 (2026-05-01); $97 (2026-05-08)
EM guardrails: 2d $82.13/$87.43; 1w $78.58/$90.98
Support: $75.93
Resistance: $93.63
Gamma flip: ~$60.00Approx — based on put OI concentration of 13,977 (29.2% below spot)
Structural: 2d guardrails $82.13/$87.43; 1w $78.58/$90.98; structural support $75.93; resistance $93.63; gamma flip ~$60

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-40.3M

DEX: +35.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$60 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 13,977 (29.2% below spot))

NTM gamma: Net dealer GEX ~-$40.3M (short gamma); dealers hold net long equity inventory that partially offsets option-driven short delta but hedging needs currently dominate, amplifying price moves

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX ~19 — stock options pricier than broad market, favoring targeted protection despite cost

Term structure: Front-month IV elevated with mild term slope; kinks at weekly expiries and concentrated May expiries

Skew: Downward skew shows put demand; actionable: sell overvalued very short-dated premium or structure spreads to finance longer protection

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium ~-65.2M — overall net sold. Visible call-heavy prints coexist with larger premium sold elsewhere or structured trades; reads may be buy-side call demand or dealer selling/hedge flows that net to sold premium.

Directional prints: 60.8 call 90 OTM 2026-05-01 — Huge volume 5,888 vs OI 259 (V/OI 22.7). Could be aggressive call buying, but more likely a leg of a structured trade or dealer selling/hedging that contributes to net premium sold (bull tilt or complex flow). 50.2 put 84 OTM 2026-04-24 — Very high intraday volume 7,268 vs OI 579 (V/OI 12.6). Likely one-sided put buying or short-covering into expiry; alternatively part of spread activity offsetting other sells. 58.3 call 88 OTM 2026-04-24 — Large flow 5,044 vs OI 453 (V/OI 11.1) in near-dated calls; indicates short-dated bullish interest or structured flow where dealers may be net sellers/hedgers.

Unusual: 60.8 call 90 OTM 2026-05-01 — Outlier V/OI 22.7 — highest abnormal call print; notable either for aggressive buy interest or structured/dealer activity. 50.2 put 84 OTM 2026-04-24 — Largest single-print volume (7,268) into near expiry — standout put demand or spread leg.

Risks & Catalysts

!Rapid market rebound forcing dealer delta reversals and compressing IV
!Dealer hedging intensity spikes and exacerbates intraday moves
!Unexpected corporate/news catalyst widening IV further

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Long putModerate
Buy 2026-05-15 $89.00 put
Why now: Modestly bearish near-term, elevated IV and dealer short-gamma increase downside tail risk; long put benefits from persistent drop and vega.
IV stays elevated but rapid mean-reversion compresses premium Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.
Bear put spreadModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-05-15 $89.00/$85.00 put spread
Why now: Bearish bias but prefer defined risk given dealer hedging spikes and IV; uses nearby liquid May strikes.
Capped profit if move exceeds short strike; voucher to gamma squeezes Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.
Call credit spreadModerate-Weak
Sell 2026-05-29 $96.00/$108.00 call spread
Why now: Flow shows net sold premium and large call prints—sell defined-risk calls above resistance to monetize structure/dealer sells.
Sharp upside gap causes losses; IV rise widens short option

Top Plays

#1
Bear put spread (defined-risk bearish)
Buy 2026-05-15 $89.00/$85.00 put spread
Buy May‑15 89/85 put spread to express multi‑week downside while limiting premium decay and hedge gamma whipsaw.
Why this play: Balances modest near-term bearish bias with defined risk against dealer hedging spikes and elevated IV.
Debit: $2.21-$2.70
Max loss: $2.70
BE: $86.30
Mgmt: Enter near lower end of entry_range; tighten or roll if price breaks below support or IV collapses; exit or convert if invalidation level breached. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.
Traders who want bearish exposure with controlled loss and lower vega exposure than a naked put.
#2
Call credit spread (sell premium above resistance)
Sell 2026-05-29 $96.00/$108.00 call spread
Sell May‑29 96/108 call spread to monetize elevated IV and dealer selling pressure above resistance.
Why this play: Leverages call‑heavy flow and net sold premium to collect premium while keeping defined risk.
Credit: $1.55-$1.90
Max loss: $10.10
BE: $97.90
Mgmt: Target mid/high of entry_range; defend or buy back if price rallies toward short strike or IV surges from news.
Neutral-to-bearish traders seeking income with capped risk.
#3
Long put (directional/vega play)
Buy 2026-05-15 $89.00 put
Buy May‑15 89 put to capture tail move and rising IV.
Why this play: Pure downside+vega play for persistent drop and elevated IV, but cost/liquidity and theta are drawbacks.
Debit: $6.71-$8.20
Max loss: $8.20
BE: $80.80
Mgmt: Position size small; buy near lower entry; cover or hedge if IV compresses or quick mean reversion occurs. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.
Traders seeking asymmetric payoff for a sharp fall or volatility jump.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF NOW <= 87.43 (2d upper guardrail) AND IV rank >= 70THEN buy 2026-05-15 89/85 put spread for debit 2.21–2.70, target size 4 spreads
IFIF NOW <= 93.63 (resistance) AND IV rank >= 70THEN sell 2026-05-29 96/108 call spread for credit 1.55–1.90, size 3 spreads
IFIF NOW <= 82.13 (2d lower guardrail) OR sharp break below 75.93 supportTHEN buy 2026-05-15 89 put outright for premium 6.71–8.20, max size 1/4 of spread exposure
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIF price < 75.93 OR 5d downside ATR-based momentum accelerates (>1.5x 14d ATR)THEN tighten management: close 50% of put-spread size at 50% P/L, roll remaining spreads down by 4 strikes (e.g., 89/85 → 85/81) for net debit ≤ original entry, and/or buy 1x 0.25-delta put for every 4 spreads as protection
Exit Triggers
EXITIF NOW > 93.63 (invalidation) OR IV drops >=20% vs entry within 5 trading daysTHEN close all bearish option positions (s1/s2/s3) immediately; take remaining spreads off at market

Tactical Summary

Modestly bearish multi-week stance: use defined-risk bear put spreads as core, small long put as asymmetric hedge, sell call spread opportunistically when IV>=70; manage with concrete P/L and strike-roll rules, exit on price invalidation or IV collapse.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on April 23, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.