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NOW

ServiceNow, Inc.Close $103.30EOD only

Max Pain

$95.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$4.92

4.8% from close

Price Gap

-8.30

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.72

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

7.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NOW options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

NOW Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Outlook

Bearish with a strong gravitational pull toward $100-$102 support. Confidence: 6.5/10. The regime is defined by negative GEX (trending), bearish net premium flow, and spot trading below a declining max pain ladder. The primary conflict is the massive put OI floor at $85-$90, which may act as a magnet but also a potential buffer against a sharp collapse.

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned bearish; -0.5 spot 3.2% from MP. No override: mechanical score captures the dominant negative gamma and flow regime.

Supports: GEX -$560K (negative, trending), Net Premium -$76.5M (bearish), P/C Volume 1.46 (put dominance), Spot below falling MP ladder.
Conflicts: Massive DEX +25.4M shares suggests significant dealer long delta, which could slow a descent. Deep put OI at $85-$90 provides structural support.

📉GEX negative & net premium -$76.5M — regime favors downside momentum.

🧲Spot below falling max pain ($108 → $100) and near-term MP at $102 — gravity is down.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 58.8% — High vol regime. Premium selling has statistical edge, but negative gamma increases tail risk.

Gamma Regime

Trending

GEX -$560K — Negative gamma regime. Dealers are short gamma, hedging will amplify spot moves (trending).

Flow Regime

Bearish

Net Premium -$76.5M, P/C Vol 1.46 — Bearish flow regime. Institutional money is paying for downside protection or positioning for a drop.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot $104.55 vs near-term MP $102 (below) — Spot is above the immediate pin but below the 3/27 and 4/10 $108 MP. The overarching MP trend is down.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Negative GEX and bearish flow are consistent across expirations. Max pain ladder trends down from $108 to $100 over 16 expirations, indicating a persistent structural pull lower, not just a weekly pin.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$101.80$107.30

Negative gamma can accelerate moves; break below $101.80 targets $100 support.

Next 1 week

$97.90$111.20

Flow and GEX alignment supports continued pressure. A hold above $100 could induce a brief bounce.

Next 2 weeks

$95.75$113.35

Downward MP gravity and put OI at $100/$90 define the range. Upside capped by $108 MP resistance.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $108 (2026-03-27); $102 (2026-04-02); $108 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $101.80/$107.30; 1w $97.90/$111.20

Support: $90.00 · $100.00 · $85.00

Resistance: $164.00 · $125.00 · $135.00

Gamma flip: ~$90.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 10,771

Structural: **Call OI wall $125-$164** caps any major rally. **Put floor $85-$90** (OI >10K each) is massive structural support, likely where larger players are positioned for a stand.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-560K

DEX: +25.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$90 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 10,771)

NTM gamma: Gamma flip ~$90 is far below spot, confirming negative gamma regime. Dealer hedging will be reactive, not stabilizing — they buy on dips and sell on rallies, amplifying trends.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 58.8% — Extremely high. Implies expensive options; selling premium has high nominal edge, but negative gamma increases risk of large moves.

Term structure: **Humped with a kink:** 4/24 expiry IV 63.6% > nearby (50.4%) and longer-dated (~55%). This kink likely prices the 4/22 earnings event. Steep drop after May.

Skew: **Earnings vol sale opportunity:** Sell 4/24 (63.6% IV) vs buy 5/01 (59.2% IV) or 6/18 (55.1% IV) for a calendar spread, betting on post-earnings vol crush.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$76.5M bearish; P/C Vol 1.46 (put dominance), P/C OI 0.88.

Directional prints: $100P 4/02 vol 152 vs OI 10,762 — likely opening of new downside protection or speculative puts. $105P vol 515 vs OI 8,610 — similar bearish activity near spot.

Unusual: $178P 6/18 vol 1,107 vs OI 190 at IV 100.1% — extreme vol purchase, likely a tail hedge or speculative downside bet.

Risks & Catalysts

!**Negative Gamma Acceleration:** A break below $102 could trigger dealer hedging (selling) that accelerates the drop.

!**Earnings Volatility (4/22):** The IV kink at 4/24 creates vol crush risk for long premium positions post-event.

!**Put Floor Support:** The $85-$90 put OI wall is a major support level; a bounce from there could be violent, squeezing shorts.

!**High IV Environment:** While good for sellers, it increases margin for error and cost of adjustments.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long Stock	Weak	N/A	Negative gamma and bearish flow oppose directional long bias.
Short Stock	Moderate-Strong	Entry near $105, stop above $108.	Dealer long delta (DEX +25.4M shares) could slow descent; put floor at $90.
Covered Call	Moderate	If long stock, sell $110C 4/17 (~45 DTE) for ~$2.00.	Stock decline outweighs premium; caps upside on any snap-back.
Cash-Secured Put / Put Spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $95/$90 put spread 4/17 (targeting put floor).	Break below $90 invalidates thesis; high IV provides good credit.
Long Calls	Weak	N/A — avoid buying calls against bearish flow and high IV.	IV crush and negative spot drift.
Long Puts / Bear Put Spread	Strong	Buy $102P / Sell $97P 4/10 (targeting $100-$102 zone).	High IV makes debit expensive; time decay.
Iron Condor	Moderate-Weak	$97/$92P x $112/$117C 4/17. (GEX negative & VIX contextually high).	Negative gamma increases chance of breaching a wing.
Calendar/Diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Reverse Calendar (Bearish): Sell $100P 4/24 (63.6% IV), Buy $100P 5/01 (59.2% IV).	Spot moves past short strike; earnings outcome.
PMCC / LEAPS Diagonal	Moderate-Weak	If executed, buy $90 LEAPS (1/15/27), sell 4/24 $115 calls against it.	Structural bearish bias makes LEAPS long delta risky.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread (Near-Term)

Buy $102 Put / Sell $97 Put, Exp 4/10.

Directly expresses the bearish regime with defined risk. Targets the $100 support level and 1-week expected move low. Better than long puts alone due to reduced cost from selling the $97 put (near the 1w EM low).

Debit: $1.80-$2.20

Max loss: $1.80

BE: $100.20

Mgmt: Take profit at 50-70% of max profit ($0.90-$1.26). Exit if spot closes above $105. Roll down if spot approaches $97.

Traders with a bearish multi-week view wanting defined risk and lower cost than outright puts.

Earnings Vol Calendar (Reverse)

Sell $100 Put 4/24 / Buy $100 Put 5/01.

Capitalizes on the IV kink (63.6% vs 59.2%) for the 4/22 earnings. This is a bearish diagonal: you collect premium from the high-IV short put and are long a lower-IV longer-dated put. Profits from IV crush post-earnings and/or a drift toward $100.

Credit: $1.00-$1.50

Max loss: N/A

BE: Complex; manage pre-earnings.

Mgmt: Close for a profit after earnings (4/23-4/24) as IV collapses. Exit if spot drops sharply below $95 pre-earnings.

Vol traders who think earnings will not cause a crash below $90 and want to harvest rich short-term vol.

Defined-Risk Put Sale (30+ DTE)

Sell $95 / $90 Put Spread, Exp 5/15 (45 DTE).

This longer-dated play targets the major $90 put floor with a buffer. The multi-week bearish thesis suggests spot may grind lower, allowing this spread to expire worthless. The extra time (45 DTE) improves risk/reward by providing more premium and time for the thesis to play out versus a weekly spread, and avoids the earnings event.

Credit: $1.25-$1.60

Max loss: $3.75

BE: $93.75

Mgmt: Close at 50-70% max profit. Exit if spot closes below $92. Can roll down and out if challenged.

Premium sellers who are bearish but believe the $90 floor will hold, wanting to collect high IV credit with a longer timeframe.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot breaks below $102 and holds for 1 hour. → Enter Bear Put Spread: Buy $102P / Sell $97P 4/10.

IFSpot rallies to test $108 (max pain resistance). → Consider short stock entry or buy $108P 4/10 as a fade.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes below $90 (breaks major put OI floor). → Exit all bearish positions — next support is unknown, regime may shift.

EXITVIX term structure inverts (front > back) while spot is below $100. → Take profits on short premium positions — fear is escalating.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: Bearish grind lower toward $100, with structural support at $90. The negative gamma and bearish flow regime favor directional shorts and defined-risk put spreads. Invalidation is a close above $108. Top Plays: 1) Bear Put Spread (4/10) for tactical downside; 2) Reverse Calendar to sell expensive earnings vol; 3) Longer-dated Put Spread (5/15) for premium sellers targeting the $90 floor.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.