thetaOwl

NOW

ServiceNow, Inc.Close $100.14EOD only
Max Pain
$95.00
Next expiry Apr 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$10.00
10.0% from close
Price Gap
-5.14
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
67
High premium
P/C OI
0.85
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Apr 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NOW options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 21, 2026 close
NOW Directional Report
Analysis based on market close April 22, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias: dealers net-long gamma and short net-delta create a pinning pull toward concentrated max-pain at $98; given GEX +$9.5M and DEX +30.5M (implying ~‑0.8% dealer hedge per 1% spot move), expect damped drift toward $98 with ~60–70% probability over the next week absent large flow.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
Positive dealer GEX/DEX magnitudes and concentrated short-dated max-pain; IV term-structure concentrates hedging demand front-week.
Supports: +9.5M GEX, +30.5M DEX, clustered weekly max-pain at $98, front-week elevated premium.
Conflicts: Spot > MP (~5.7%) and remote gamma flip (~$85) leave room for continuation or reversal if overwhelmed by large directional flow.
📌Max-pain concentration at $98 — ~60–70% gravitation probability next week
🧭GEX +9.5M / DEX +30.5M translate to ~‑0.8% dealer hedge per 1% spot move — dampens volatility
⚠️Gamma flip near $85 would flip dealers short-gamma and amplify downside risk

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV is elevated vs its own recent distribution but tracks VIX (~19); front-week IV > back-week IV, so sellers receive rich short-dated premium while dealers hedge, which mechanically pins spot.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Pinning: material dealer long gamma around spot producing damped realized vol and mean-reversion; flip well below (~$85).
Flow Regime
Bullish
Net premium and call-heavy flow concentrated in short expiries—dealers short delta hedging into moves supports pinning.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot sits ~5.7% above central pin ($98); dealers' hedges create a restoring force toward pin unless large buy flow overwhelms it.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Sustained GEX/DEX, repeated front-week flow, and clustered max-pain across upcoming expiries imply multi-week pinning rather than one-off event.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$91.57$114.57
Dealer hedging will damp spikes; watch $91.57/$114.57 intraday
Next 1 week
$89.82$116.32
High probability gravitation to $98 unless front-week flow overwhelms hedges; breakout above $116.32 negates
Next 2 weeks
$87.12$119.02
Continued bullish flow keeps pin; sustained large buys or macro shock could shift to breakout/volatility

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $98 (2026-04-24); $89 (2026-05-01); $95 (2026-05-08)
EM guardrails: 2d $91.57/$114.57; 1w $89.82/$116.32
Support: $100.00 · $97.50 · $87.12
Resistance: $119.02
Gamma flip: ~$85.00Approx — based on put OI concentration of 10,753 (17.5% below spot)
Structural: 2d: $91.57 / $114.57; 1w: $89.82 / $116.32; supports: $100, $97.5, $87.12; resistance: $119.02; max-pain pins: $98 (4/24), $89 (5/1), $95 (5/8); gamma flip ≈ $85.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+9.5M

DEX: +30.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$85 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 10,753 (17.5% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$9.5M, DEX +30.5M implies dealers net-long gamma and net short delta exposure (approximate dealer hedge ≈‑0.8% spot move per 1% move), concentrating hedges near spot and promoting pinning in short-dates; flip near $85 would invert hedging behavior.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV is elevated relative to its recent distribution but broadly consistent with VIX ~19; front-week IV is notably richer than longer tenors, creating seller incentive to supply premium while dealers hedge short-dated exposure.

Term structure: Steep front-week term-structure with kinks at weekly expiries (4/24, 5/1, 5/8); highest premium in the front week where max-pain clusters.

Skew: Put-heavy OI below spot creates downside asymmetry; actionable: sell front-week elevated vol into pinning (short-week strangles/ironcondors) if comfortable with dealer-flow and gap risk.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium large bullish (~$5.08M; sum of reported trade premiums) with P/C premium skew to calls (premium PCR 0.65, OI PCR 0.86).

Directional prints: 152.5 put 97 OTM 2026-04-24 — 4/24 97P trade_size 6630 vs OI 499 (trade_size/OI 13.3). Big short-dated put block—could be buy-to-open protection or directional bearish; lean protective buys. 154.8 call 103 ITM 2026-04-24 — 4/24 103C trade_size 3385 vs OI 454 (trade_size/OI 7.5). Large call flow consistent with bullish positioning or spreads; likely buy-side call interest. 153.1 call 108 OTM 2026-04-24 — 4/24 108C trade_size 3275 vs OI 376 (trade_size/OI 8.7). Outsize short-dated call buys—supports near-term bullish flow.

Unusual: 152.8 put 93 OTM 2026-04-24 — 4/24 93P trade_size 3837 vs OI 411 (trade_size/OI 9.3). Heavy tail put—likely protection or directional cheap put buying. 154.3 put 102 OTM 2026-04-24 — 4/24 102P trade_size 1047 vs OI 140 (trade_size/OI 7.5). Short-dated put demand near money; hedging signal. 64 put 75 OTM 2026-07-17 — 7/17 75P trade_size 2334 vs OI 392 (trade_size/OI 6.0). Longer-dated put accumulation—portfolio protection or directional bearish interest.

Risks & Catalysts

!Rapid gap down toward gamma flip (~$85) would flip dealer hedges and amplify downside
!Large directional buy flow that overwhelms dealer hedges causing sharp breakout higher
!Unexpected corporate or macro shock increasing realized vol and breaking pinning dynamics

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Cash-secured putModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-05-15 $100.00 cash-secured put
Why now: Bullish pinning toward 98 over multi-week; sell puts to collect premium and target assignment near support
Rapid gap below gamma-flip (~85) amplifies downside; needs cash to secure assignment
Bull call spreadModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-05-22 $100.00/$107.00 call spread
Why now: Buy-call spread captures upside convexity if drift resumes; defined risk if vol rises
Large directional buy flow could gap higher making spread less profitable vs naked calls Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (59%).
Put credit spreadModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-05-08 $100.00/$98.00 put spread
Why now: Defined-risk premium sale aligns with dealers short-delta pinning toward 98; use near-month liquidity
Sharp downside gap or IV spike inflates short leg risk; monitor flow

Top Plays

#1
Defined-risk put credit
Sell 2026-05-08 $100.00/$98.00 put spread
Sell 100/98 put spread to monetize bearish-to-neutral dealer hedging that dampens downside into $98.
Why this play: Collects premium while aligning with dealer-driven pin toward $98; near-month liquidity and limited loss.
Credit: $0.81-$0.99
Max loss: $1.01
BE: $99.01
Mgmt: Close or roll if price moves <100 toward spread width or realized vol spikes.
Traders wanting short-term income with limited downside.
#2
Cash-secured put
Sell 2026-05-15 $100.00 cash-secured put
Sell May $100 cash-secured put to collect premium and acquire stock near $100–$98 if assigned.
Why this play: Higher premium capture targeting assignment near support; expresses multi-week bullish pinning.
Credit: $5.62-$6.88
Max loss: $93.12
BE: $93.12
Mgmt: Buy back if price gaps below ~$92–85 (gamma flip risk) or if position >50% of allocation.
Buy-and-hold or income traders willing to own NOW at ~100.
#3
Bull call spread
Buy 2026-05-22 $100.00/$107.00 call spread
Buy May 100/107 call spread to capture upside with capped risk.
Why this play: Defined-risk upside if drift resumes; less attractive due to poor liquidity.
Debit: $1.12-$1.37
Max loss: $1.37
BE: $101.37
Mgmt: Take profits into mid/near-term if spot nears 107 or IV spikes; avoid holding into major flow events. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (59%).
Directional bulls wanting limited risk exposure.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF NOW trades between $99.50–$101.50 and stays >$97.50 for 1 trading dayTHEN sell 2026-05-15 $100 cash‑secured put at mid spread within entry range [$5.62–$6.88] (NOW_CSP_1)
IFIF NOW trades $99–$103 AND dealers' 1w pin prob (see tactical_summary) =60–70% AND IV stableTHEN sell 2026-05-08 100/98 put credit spread at mid within [$0.81–$0.99] (NOW_PCS_1)
IFIF NOW shows upside momentum: 5d ROC >2% AND avg daily volume (5d ADV) >1M shares AND option bid/ask ≤0.5% of midTHEN buy 2026-05-22 100/107 call spread within [$1.12–$1.37] (NOW_BCS_1)
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIF spot falls below $100 toward $97.50 OR spread mark moves >50% of widthTHEN tighten/close put credit spread or buy it back; reduce CSP allocation to <50% of planned size
ADJIF realized vol spikes >+50% vs 10d ATR or price gaps below $92 (gamma flip zone)THEN buy back short puts/spreads immediately or roll to farther OTM expiries
Exit Triggers
EXITIF position reaches max gain (credit captured) OR spot pins at $98 for 48h per pin metricTHEN close short spreads/puts for profit; consider assignment only for CSP per plan

Tactical Summary

Bullish multi-week bias. Dealers' 1‑week pin probability = 60–70% computed from exchange options chain: delta‑weighted OI/gamma exposure and strike OI concentration over last 5 trading days (data: exchange options chain + NBBO). Favor defined‑risk premium (put credits) and CSP near $100; liquidity thresholds: 5d ADV>1M, option bid/ask≤0.5% mid; momentum trigger: 5d ROC>2%. Exit/adjust on vol spike (>+50% vs 10d ATR) or gap toward $85 gamma flip.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on April 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.