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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $89.30EOD only

Max Pain

$89.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$1.29

1.4% from close

Price Gap

-0.30

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.79

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 21, 2026 close

NFLX Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 7, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 7, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 21, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with an upside magnet to $100 driven by strong positive GEX pinning and concentrated call OI at $100-$105; Confidence: 8.0/10 (base). Primary supports: GEX +$219.8M concentrated at $100/$101 and Net Premium +$41.8M; primary conflict: very High IV (ATM avg 50.4%) and earnings on 2026-04-16 increasing event risk.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Base 8.0 (pre-computed): +219.8M GEX pin at $100/$101; net premium +$41.8M; high IV and upcoming earnings increase event risk but do not negate pinning.

Supports: GEX concentrations +$35.8M at $100 and +$12.4M at $101; Max Pain $96 (4/10) near expected-move lower bound.
Conflicts: Avg IV 50.4% and ATM term kink (3d 39.1% → 10d 57.2%) due to earnings; P/C volume 1.38 shows put buying, creating tail risk.

📌GEX pin magnet: +$35.8M at $100 (1.2% above spot) is the dominant near-term mechanical force.

⚠️Earnings 2026-04-16 +10d IV jump to 57.2% creates event-hour skew and wider 10d moves.

🧭Max Pain ladder trending down ($96→$95) supports mild mean-reversion into lower-week expirations.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High Vol: Avg IV 50.4% with a steep earnings kink (3d ATM 39.1% → 10d ATM 57.2%), so short-term IV is expensive around earnings.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning: GEX +$219.8M concentrated at $100/$101/$102, creating an NTM magnet and favorable dynamics for premium sellers near those strikes.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed Flow: Net Premium +$41.8M but P/C OI 0.90 and P/C Vol 1.38 indicate retail put demand plus large call sells; institutional flow not one-way.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $98.82 is above Max Pain $96 (4/10) and pinned closer to $100, implying upward mechanical bias but capped by call walls at $105-$125.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning and GEX concentrations persist across the next 2 expirations and MP trend is stable for multiple expirations, so prefer 30-45 DTE for primary trades with weeklies as overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$96.05$101.58

GEX +$35.8M at $100 acts as magnet; failure below $96.05 accelerates downside.

Next 1 week

$91.34$106.29

Earnings (4/16) priced into 10d IV (57.2%) — moves can stretch to $91.34 or $106.29 on surprise.

Next 2 weeks

$90.47$107.17

Sustained dealer short-delta hedging (DEX +142.7M shares) supports mean-reversion to call walls if no large negative surprise.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $96 (2026-04-10); $91 (2026-04-17); $95 (2026-04-24)

EM guardrails: 2d $96.05/$101.58; 1w $91.34/$106.29

Support: $96.00 · $95.00 · $91.00

Resistance: $100.00 · $105.00 · $110.00

Gamma flip: ~$73.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 48,173 (26.1% below spot)

Structural: Call OI wall $105-$125 caps sustained upside; gamma flip/put floor at $73 is long-tail support for deep hedges.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+219.8M

DEX: +142.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$73 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 48,173 (26.1% below spot))

NTM gamma: Heavy positive NTM gamma concentrated at $100/$101/$102 (largest +$35.8M at $100) — dealers will buy delta as spot falls toward these pins and sell delta as spot rallies above them; a ±2% move (~$96.84 / $100.80) will materially reduce hedging flows: a -2% move increases dealer long-delta hedges (buys shares) reinforcing the pin; a +2% move reduces hedges and can allow calls to cap upside around $105.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs general market: Avg IV 50.4% with ATM 10d 57.2% (earnings kink) — options expensive around the event relative to market.

Term structure: Kinked: 3d 39.1% → 10d 57.2% → 17d 49.3% — short-dated IV elevated into earnings then backs down; back-months settle ~41-42%.

Skew: Large IV term slope around 10d offers calendar/diagonal opportunities: sell near-term (10d) IV ~57.2% vs buy 30-45d IV ~41.9% (approx +15.3 vol-pt edge). Consider selling event-dated premium where risk-defined.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: + $41.8M (net premium into calls), P/C Volume 1.38 (put-heavy flow) and P/C OI 0.90 (more call OI concentration).

Directional prints: 38 put 99 ITM 4/10 — Large unusual: 4/10 $99 put Vol=13,820 vs OI=3,294 (4.2x) — could be buy-to-open protection or sell-to-close; in mixed flow context more consistent with protective buys into earnings. 58.1 call 100 OTM 4/10 — Heavy premium flow: $100 calls OI 44,476 with volume 3,839 — significant call concentration feeding GEX pinning (likely sold to dealers).

Unusual: 38 put 99 ITM 4/10 — Notable put print 4/10 $99: Vol 13,820, OI 3,294 suggests active short-dated protection demand into earnings.

Risks & Catalysts

!Earnings on 2026-04-16 (10d IV 57.2%) can blow the pin either direction and spike IV;

!Gamma flip at ~$73 is distant but represents structural put floor if large sell-off occurs;

!High IV (avg 50.4%) raises cost for long vol and increases margin for short premium into event;

!Net put buying (P/C vol 1.38) can amplify downside on negative news despite pinning.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy NFLX stock at market $98.82	Earnings catalyzed gap risk; capital-intensive vs defined-risk alternatives.
Short stock	Weak	Short NFLX stock at market $98.82	Dealers net long-delta and GEX pinning create buy pressure into $100; high IV makes hedged alternatives preferable.
Covered call	Moderate	Buy stock + sell 30-45d $105 call (sell higher call to collect premium vs call wall)	Underlying assignment if rally through call wall; earnings gap risk.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 30-45d $95/$90 put spread (sell $95, buy $90, 30-45d)	Breaks below $91 (1w EM lower bound) and heavy put buying can steepen losses.
Long calls	Weak	Buy calls into earnings (exp 4/17) — expensive due to 10d IV 57.2%	IV crush post-earnings; high premium paid with event risk.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 30-45d $100/$95 bear put spread (buy $100, sell $95)	Costly due to elevated IV but defined risk; works if earnings disappointment pushes to MP trend lower.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 30-45d $90/$85 put x $105/$110 call iron condor (collect premium within EM bounds)	Large IV spike or earnings surprise beyond $91.34 or $106.29 will blow wings; requires active management.
Calendar / diagonal (regular)	Strong	Sell 10d (4/17) ATM-ish high-IV options, buy 30-45d lower-IV: sell 4/17 $100 call IV~57.2%, buy 5/22 $100 call IV~41.9% (sell higher IV leg) — regular calendar/diagonal	Directional gamma into earnings; needs vega term differential to hold. Exposure if directional move compresses front IV too slowly.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy 6-12 month call (e.g., 2027-03-19 $95) and sell 30-45d calls (e.g., sell 5/22 $105) as income overlay	Time decay and assignment risk on short calls; requires directional bias and financing cost.

Top Plays

Sell regular calendar (call) into earnings

Sell 4/17 $100 call, buy 5/22 $100 call (sell higher IV leg)

Captures ~+15 vol-pt term premium (10d 57.2% vs 45d 41.9%) and uses GEX pinning at $100 to reduce directional gamma risk.

Credit: $0.80-$1.60

Max loss: Defined by long leg cost minus credit

BE: Delta/gamma sensitive — manage by P/L not strict BE

Mgmt: Take 50-70% profit if front IV collapses; cut if spot moves beyond $106.29 or front IV rises >+10 vol pts.

Traders comfortable selling event premium and delta-managing post-release

30-45d Iron condor (defined-risk premium sell)

Sell 5/22 $90/$85 put spread and sell $105/$110 call spread (iron condor)

Uses GEX pin ($100) and 45d term IV ~41.9% to collect premium inside 1-week EM $91-$106; puts are wide of short-term MP $96/$91 supporting downside buffer.

Credit: $1.10-$2.50

Max loss: $400.00

BE: Short put side BE ≈ 90 + (width - credit); call side BE ≈ 105 - (width - credit)

Mgmt: Take 50% profit at realized P/L; hedge or roll if spot < $96 or > $106.

Defined-risk income traders who can adjust wings around earnings

Sell 30-45d $95/$90 put spread

Sell 5/22 $95/$90 put spread (defined risk)

Leans into pin and MP $96 while keeping defined risk; benefits from dealer buying as spot tests $96-$95.

Credit: $0.85-$1.60

Max loss: $4.15

BE: $94.15

Mgmt: Close at 60-70% of max profit; stop if spot < $91 or IV > +10 vol pts.

Smaller accounts wanting one-legged defined-risk income

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $100.00 and holds 30 minutes → Sell 4/17 $100 call and buy 5/22 $100 call (regular calendar)

IFIf spot tests $96.05 (2d EM lower bound) and shows buying within 60 minutes → Sell 5/22 $95/$90 put spread

IFIf 10d ATM IV > 55% while 45d IV < 43% → Sell front 4/17 ATM call (or put) and buy 30-45d same-strike (calendar) to capture term premium

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot moves above $106.29 (1w EM upper) → Widen or roll up iron condor calls (roll 5/22 $105/$110 to $110/$115) or buy short calls to hedge upside

ADJIf spot drops below $91.34 (1w EM lower) → Buy protection: convert short put spread into wider defined risk or exit short premium

Exit Triggers

EXITIf realized P/L on sold calendars or condors reaches 50-70% of max profit → Take profit and remove near-term short legs

EXITIf front IV rises >+10 vol pts post-entry or earnings surprise occurs → Close sold front legs and retain longer-dated protection

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: multi-week mean-reversion toward $100 driven by strong positive GEX and call OI walls; invalidate this thesis on sustained break below $91.34 (1w EM lower) or strong earnings-driven gap beyond $106.29. Regime favors structured premium-selling via calendars/iron condors and defined-risk put spreads; calendar (sell front, buy back month) is best for capturing the earnings IV term premium, iron condor for income, and put-spread for conservative defined downside exposure.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 7, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.