NFLX Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 7, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with an upside magnet to $100 driven by strong positive GEX pinning and concentrated call OI at $100-$105; Confidence: 8.0/10 (base). Primary supports: GEX +$219.8M concentrated at $100/$101 and Net Premium +$41.8M; primary conflict: very High IV (ATM avg 50.4%) and earnings on 2026-04-16 increasing event risk.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Base 8.0 (pre-computed): +219.8M GEX pin at $100/$101; net premium +$41.8M; high IV and upcoming earnings increase event risk but do not negate pinning.

Supports: GEX concentrations +$35.8M at $100 and +$12.4M at $101; Max Pain $96 (4/10) near expected-move lower bound.
Conflicts: Avg IV 50.4% and ATM term kink (3d 39.1% → 10d 57.2%) due to earnings; P/C volume 1.38 shows put buying, creating tail risk.

📌GEX pin magnet: +$35.8M at $100 (1.2% above spot) is the dominant near-term mechanical force.

⚠️Earnings 2026-04-16 +10d IV jump to 57.2% creates event-hour skew and wider 10d moves.

🧭Max Pain ladder trending down ($96→$95) supports mild mean-reversion into lower-week expirations.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High Vol: Avg IV 50.4% with a steep earnings kink (3d ATM 39.1% → 10d ATM 57.2%), so short-term IV is expensive around earnings.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning: GEX +$219.8M concentrated at $100/$101/$102, creating an NTM magnet and favorable dynamics for premium sellers near those strikes.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed Flow: Net Premium +$41.8M but P/C OI 0.90 and P/C Vol 1.38 indicate retail put demand plus large call sells; institutional flow not one-way.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $98.82 is above Max Pain $96 (4/10) and pinned closer to $100, implying upward mechanical bias but capped by call walls at $105-$125.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning and GEX concentrations persist across the next 2 expirations and MP trend is stable for multiple expirations, so prefer 30-45 DTE for primary trades with weeklies as overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$96.05$101.58

GEX +$35.8M at $100 acts as magnet; failure below $96.05 accelerates downside.

Next 1 week

$91.34$106.29

Earnings (4/16) priced into 10d IV (57.2%) — moves can stretch to $91.34 or $106.29 on surprise.

Next 2 weeks

$90.47$107.17

Sustained dealer short-delta hedging (DEX +142.7M shares) supports mean-reversion to call walls if no large negative surprise.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $96 (2026-04-10); $91 (2026-04-17); $95 (2026-04-24)

EM guardrails: 2d $96.05/$101.58; 1w $91.34/$106.29

Support: $96.00 · $95.00 · $91.00

Resistance: $100.00 · $105.00 · $110.00

Gamma flip: ~$73.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 48,173 (26.1% below spot)

Structural: Call OI wall $105-$125 caps sustained upside; gamma flip/put floor at $73 is long-tail support for deep hedges.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+219.8M

DEX: +142.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$73 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 48,173 (26.1% below spot))

NTM gamma: Heavy positive NTM gamma concentrated at $100/$101/$102 (largest +$35.8M at $100) — dealers will buy delta as spot falls toward these pins and sell delta as spot rallies above them; a ±2% move (~$96.84 / $100.80) will materially reduce hedging flows: a -2% move increases dealer long-delta hedges (buys shares) reinforcing the pin; a +2% move reduces hedges and can allow calls to cap upside around $105.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs general market: Avg IV 50.4% with ATM 10d 57.2% (earnings kink) — options expensive around the event relative to market.

Term structure: Kinked: 3d 39.1% → 10d 57.2% → 17d 49.3% — short-dated IV elevated into earnings then backs down; back-months settle ~41-42%.

Skew: Large IV term slope around 10d offers calendar/diagonal opportunities: sell near-term (10d) IV ~57.2% vs buy 30-45d IV ~41.9% (approx +15.3 vol-pt edge). Consider selling event-dated premium where risk-defined.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: + $41.8M (net premium into calls), P/C Volume 1.38 (put-heavy flow) and P/C OI 0.90 (more call OI concentration).

Directional prints: 38 put 99 ITM 4/10 — Large unusual: 4/10 $99 put Vol=13,820 vs OI=3,294 (4.2x) — could be buy-to-open protection or sell-to-close; in mixed flow context more consistent with protective buys into earnings. 58.1 call 100 OTM 4/10 — Heavy premium flow: $100 calls OI 44,476 with volume 3,839 — significant call concentration feeding GEX pinning (likely sold to dealers).

Unusual: 38 put 99 ITM 4/10 — Notable put print 4/10 $99: Vol 13,820, OI 3,294 suggests active short-dated protection demand into earnings.

Risks & Catalysts

!Earnings on 2026-04-16 (10d IV 57.2%) can blow the pin either direction and spike IV;

!Gamma flip at ~$73 is distant but represents structural put floor if large sell-off occurs;

!High IV (avg 50.4%) raises cost for long vol and increases margin for short premium into event;

!Net put buying (P/C vol 1.38) can amplify downside on negative news despite pinning.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy NFLX stock at market $98.82	Earnings catalyzed gap risk; capital-intensive vs defined-risk alternatives.
Short stock	Weak	Short NFLX stock at market $98.82	Dealers net long-delta and GEX pinning create buy pressure into $100; high IV makes hedged alternatives preferable.
Covered call	Moderate	Buy stock + sell 30-45d $105 call (sell higher call to collect premium vs call wall)	Underlying assignment if rally through call wall; earnings gap risk.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 30-45d $95/$90 put spread (sell $95, buy $90, 30-45d)	Breaks below $91 (1w EM lower bound) and heavy put buying can steepen losses.
Long calls	Weak	Buy calls into earnings (exp 4/17) — expensive due to 10d IV 57.2%	IV crush post-earnings; high premium paid with event risk.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 30-45d $100/$95 bear put spread (buy $100, sell $95)	Costly due to elevated IV but defined risk; works if earnings disappointment pushes to MP trend lower.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 30-45d $90/$85 put x $105/$110 call iron condor (collect premium within EM bounds)	Large IV spike or earnings surprise beyond $91.34 or $106.29 will blow wings; requires active management.
Calendar / diagonal (regular)	Strong	Sell 10d (4/17) ATM-ish high-IV options, buy 30-45d lower-IV: sell 4/17 $100 call IV~57.2%, buy 5/22 $100 call IV~41.9% (sell higher IV leg) — regular calendar/diagonal	Directional gamma into earnings; needs vega term differential to hold. Exposure if directional move compresses front IV too slowly.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy 6-12 month call (e.g., 2027-03-19 $95) and sell 30-45d calls (e.g., sell 5/22 $105) as income overlay	Time decay and assignment risk on short calls; requires directional bias and financing cost.

Top Plays

Sell regular calendar (call) into earnings

Sell 4/17 $100 call, buy 5/22 $100 call (sell higher IV leg)

Captures ~+15 vol-pt term premium (10d 57.2% vs 45d 41.9%) and uses GEX pinning at $100 to reduce directional gamma risk.

Credit: $0.80-$1.60

Max loss: Defined by long leg cost minus credit

BE: Delta/gamma sensitive — manage by P/L not strict BE

Mgmt: Take 50-70% profit if front IV collapses; cut if spot moves beyond $106.29 or front IV rises >+10 vol pts.

Traders comfortable selling event premium and delta-managing post-release

30-45d Iron condor (defined-risk premium sell)

Sell 5/22 $90/$85 put spread and sell $105/$110 call spread (iron condor)

Uses GEX pin ($100) and 45d term IV ~41.9% to collect premium inside 1-week EM $91-$106; puts are wide of short-term MP $96/$91 supporting downside buffer.

Credit: $1.10-$2.50

Max loss: $400.00

BE: Short put side BE ≈ 90 + (width - credit); call side BE ≈ 105 - (width - credit)

Mgmt: Take 50% profit at realized P/L; hedge or roll if spot < $96 or > $106.

Defined-risk income traders who can adjust wings around earnings

Sell 30-45d $95/$90 put spread

Sell 5/22 $95/$90 put spread (defined risk)

Leans into pin and MP $96 while keeping defined risk; benefits from dealer buying as spot tests $96-$95.

Credit: $0.85-$1.60

Max loss: $4.15

BE: $94.15

Mgmt: Close at 60-70% of max profit; stop if spot < $91 or IV > +10 vol pts.

Smaller accounts wanting one-legged defined-risk income

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $100.00 and holds 30 minutes → Sell 4/17 $100 call and buy 5/22 $100 call (regular calendar)

IFIf spot tests $96.05 (2d EM lower bound) and shows buying within 60 minutes → Sell 5/22 $95/$90 put spread

IFIf 10d ATM IV > 55% while 45d IV < 43% → Sell front 4/17 ATM call (or put) and buy 30-45d same-strike (calendar) to capture term premium

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot moves above $106.29 (1w EM upper) → Widen or roll up iron condor calls (roll 5/22 $105/$110 to $110/$115) or buy short calls to hedge upside

ADJIf spot drops below $91.34 (1w EM lower) → Buy protection: convert short put spread into wider defined risk or exit short premium

Exit Triggers

EXITIf realized P/L on sold calendars or condors reaches 50-70% of max profit → Take profit and remove near-term short legs

EXITIf front IV rises >+10 vol pts post-entry or earnings surprise occurs → Close sold front legs and retain longer-dated protection

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: multi-week mean-reversion toward $100 driven by strong positive GEX and call OI walls; invalidate this thesis on sustained break below $91.34 (1w EM lower) or strong earnings-driven gap beyond $106.29. Regime favors structured premium-selling via calendars/iron condors and defined-risk put spreads; calendar (sell front, buy back month) is best for capturing the earnings IV term premium, iron condor for income, and put-spread for conservative defined downside exposure.

Read the Directional analysis for NFLX for 2026-04-07. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.