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MRVL

Marvell Technology, Inc.Close $310.58EOD only
Max Pain
$262.50
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$39.85
12.8% from close
Price Gap
-48.08
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
1.21
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MRVL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 18, 2026 close
MRVL Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Bullish flow & gamma pinning, but 66 days till earnings with extreme IV. High confidence.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 6.2% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Bullish flow and gamma pinning countered by extreme IV and time decay.
🛡️Put at $237.5 heavy volume – acts as support.
🚀Call buying at $400+ strikes – institutional bullish bets.
⚖️80% beat rate but 66 days out – IV risk.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-08-27 (66 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (4d): ±$30.62 (9.9%)
  • 2026-07-02 (10d): ±$43.75 (14.2%)
  • 2026-07-10 (18d): ±$55.52 (18.0%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Upward sloping: 30d ~25%, 60d ~30%, 90d ~35%.

Crush estimate: Crush likely 30-50% post-event, but long duration risks premium decay.

Skew: Call walls at $400 vs put hedges at lower strikes.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Last 4 beats avg +5%, but historical moves not comparable due to far expiration.

Directional bias: Bullish given 80% beat rate and positive flow.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 1w $264.11/$351.61
2Max pain pins: $290 (2026-06-26); $265 (2026-07-02); $280 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Net call premium $158M, put/call volume ratio 0.74.

Aggressive call buying at high strikes indicates bullish positioning.

Unusual put activity at $237.5 (14.8x OI) and $185.

Tail hedges against downside, but overall call-skewed.

Strategies

Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-09-18 $290.00/$320.00 call spread
Debit: $10.82-$13.23
Max loss: $13.23
Max gain: $16.77
BE: $303.23
Trigger: Set stop-loss at $0 if price breaks $290.
Defined risk, captures upside with 80% beat rate, less premium decay than strangle.
Outperforms: Expresses bullish directional view with limited risk.
Underperforms: Loss of support weakens upside continuation thesis.
Long Strangle
Buy 2026-09-18 $280.00 put + buy $330.00 call
Debit: $86.78-$106.07
Max loss: $106.07
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 173.93 / 436.07
Trigger: Consider closing early if implied volatility drops or if price stagnates.
Beneficial if large move, but high premium and time decay risk.
Outperforms: Exploits high IV but requires large move to profit.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.

Risk Assessment

!Extreme IV (25-35% moves priced) may disappoint if reality is smaller.
!Time decay over 66 days erodes option premiums.
!Market context: SPY/QQQ slightly negative, VIX 17.

What to Watch

?Max pain pin at $290 for near-term expiries; price action around $300.
?Unusual $237.5 put volume: potential support or accelerator if broken.
?Call wall at $400: breakthrough could trigger gamma squeeze.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.