thetaOwl
HomeOptionsMRVLReports

MRVL

Marvell Technology, Inc.Close $278.67EOD only
Max Pain
$180.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$23.23
8.3% from close
Price Gap
-98.67
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
98
High premium
P/C OI
1.10
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 16, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MRVL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 16, 2026 close
MRVL Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 17, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

MRVL Aug 27; 80% beat rate; implied move 7%; spot ~$291.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 52.4% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: High IV, deep OTM puts signal hedging; binary event.
🐻Massive $170 put buying (33x OI).
🐂$295 call buying signals upside.
⚠️Expect IV crush post-earnings.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-08-27 (71 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-18 (1d): ±$20.40 (7.0%)
  • 2026-06-26 (9d): ±$40.50 (14.0%)
  • 2026-07-02 (15d): ±$50.08 (17.3%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Upward: 7% to 17%.

Crush estimate: Post-earnings IV crush >50%.

Skew: Put skew steep; deep OTM puts trade at huge IV.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Avg move ~6.1% vs implied 7%.

Directional bias: Bullish historically.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $269.14/$309.94; 1w $249.04/$330.04
2Max pain pins: $190 (2026-06-18); $255 (2026-06-26); $255 (2026-07-02)

Flow Highlights

23686 vol $170 Put (33x OI).

Bearish hedge or downside bet.

5100 vol $295 Call (3.7x OI).

Bullish positioning near spot.

Strategies

Call Calendar
Sell 2026-06-26 $300.00 call / buy 2026-07-24 $300.00 call
Debit: $15.95-$19.50
Max loss: $19.50
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close if spot breaches invalidation level; roll if needed.
Exploits upward term structure (7% to 17%) and IV crush; defined risk, bullish bias.
Outperforms: Sell front-month call, buy back-month call; profits from front decay and back-IV rise.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Iron Condor
Sell 2026-06-26 $270.00/$265.00 put wing and $310.00/$312.50 call wing
Credit: $2.14-$2.61
Max loss: $2.39
Max gain: $2.61
BE: 267.39 / 312.61
Trigger: Adjust wings if spot approaches; close before earnings to avoid gap.
Captures elevated IV within range; defined risk, matches historical average move.
Outperforms: Sell OTM put and call wings, buy further OTM for protection; profits if spot stays near $300.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Short Strangle
Sell 2026-06-26 $270.00 put + sell $310.00 call
Credit: $21.62-$26.43
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $26.43
BE: 243.57 / 336.43
Trigger: Strict stop-loss; size conservatively to limit tail risk.
Highest premium but unlimited risk; less preferred due to binary event and hedging.
Outperforms: Sell OTM put and call; profits from IV contraction if spot stays within range.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Earnings miss could trigger sharp drop given put hedges.

What to Watch

?$300 resistance.
?Deep OTM put unwind if bullish.
?Max pain near $300 may act as support.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 17, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.