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MRVL

Marvell Technology, Inc.Close $308.88EOD only
Max Pain
$175.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$27.92
9.0% from close
Price Gap
-133.88
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
1.12
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 15, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MRVL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 15, 2026 close
MRVL Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 16, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Bullish flow with gamma pinning, but spot far from MP and broad tech weakness adds risk.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 54.8% from MP; +1 VIX 16
Most important: Unusual put activity at $185 and $175 suggests downside hedging despite bullish flow.
📈Bullish flow but spot far from MP; pinning may fail.
⚠️Deep OTM puts trading at 12x OI – clear hedging signal.
📊80% beat rate historically, but 72 days out reduces relevance.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$265.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 10,606 (4.9% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-08-27 (72 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-18 (2d): ±$23.22 (8.3%)
  • 2026-06-26 (10d): ±$40.85 (14.7%)
  • 2026-07-02 (16d): ±$49.20 (17.7%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Increasing expected move: 2d ±8.3%, 10d ±14.7%, 16d ±17.7% reflecting elevated IV.

Crush estimate: Earnings 72 days away; no immediate crush expected.

Skew: Put skew elevated at low strikes (IV 112-118%) vs calls (IV 108-120%).

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not applicable (far from earnings).

Directional bias: Stock has rallied strongly; 80% beat rate historically.

Key Levels

1$265.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $255.45/$301.90; 1w $237.82/$319.52
3Max pain pins: $180 (2026-06-18); $240 (2026-06-26); $250 (2026-07-02)

Flow Highlights

Unusual volume in 2026-07-17 $185 Put (12.7x OI) and $175 Put (4.5x OI).

Heavy put buying at deep OTM strikes suggests hedging or bearish positioning.

Large call volume at $310 and $305 strikes for 2026-06-26.

Bullish call buying in near-term expiration.

Strategies

Iron Condor
Sell 2026-06-26 $260.00/$255.00 put wing and $290.00/$295.00 call wing
Credit: $2.32-$2.83
Max loss: $2.17
Max gain: $2.83
BE: 257.17 / 292.83
Trigger: Exit if spot breaks $265 or $280; take profit at 50% max gain.
High IV and gamma pinning near $265/$280.
Outperforms: Captures premium from elevated IV in range-bound market.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Call Calendar
Sell 2026-06-26 $280.00 call / buy 2026-07-24 $280.00 call
Debit: $15.41-$18.84
Max loss: $18.84
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close if spot falls below $265; manage theta decay.
Bullish bias with 80% beat rate; near-term IV high.
Outperforms: Profits from near-term IV decay, long-term bullish exposure.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Spot 54.8% from max pain (180) suggests potential pin risk.
!QQQ down 1.9% on day; tech weakness could amplify moves.
!Elevated put OI ratio (1.1) indicates hedging pressure.

What to Watch

?$265 support and $280 resistance; gamma flip near $265.
?Unusual put activity at $185 and $175 for directional clues.
?Net premium flow >$91M bullish; monitor for reversal.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 16, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.