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MRVL

Marvell Technology, Inc.Close $307.86EOD only

Max Pain

$290.00

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$30.62

9.9% from close

Price Gap

-17.86

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

1.11

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

7.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 22, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MRVL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 22, 2026 close

MRVL Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 23, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

MRVL trades below max pain ($300) with strong dealer gamma pinning (GEX +$7.7M) and positive delta (50.6M shares). High vol and mixed flow, but positive gamma supports recovery toward $300 by Jun26 expiry. Near-term range 254-304 but upside bias to resistance. Risk from broader tech weakness (QQQ -3.3%).

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base 5 +2 GEX/flow aligned +1 pinning -1 spot 7% from MP +0.5 VIX 19 = 7.5

Supports: Dealer gamma pinning, positive delta, max pain $300, 2d support $254
Conflicts: Spot below MP, high vol, mixed flow, tech weakness

📈Gamma pinning to $300

📉Tech sell-off headwind (QQQ -3.3%)

🔄Mixed flow limits upside conviction

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High vol relative to typical range, elevated by tech sell-off and event proximity (Jun26 expiry).

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Strong positive gamma (+$7.7M GEX), no flip risk, pinning effect near $300 max pain.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed net premium, no extreme bias; GEX/flow alignment indicates slight bullish lean.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot ~7% below max pain ($300), creating upward pull as expiry approaches.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Jun26 expiry in 3 days with dominant dealer gamma and max pain pinning.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$254.09$303.99

Gamma pinning to $300 resistance

Next 1 week

$241.52$316.57

Post-expiry, gamma flips; market direction key

Next 2 weeks

$230.62$327.47

Wider range 230-327; no clear catalyst

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $300 (2026-06-26); $275 (2026-07-02); $280 (2026-07-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $254.09/$303.99; 1w $241.52/$316.57

Support: $230.62

Resistance: $300.00 · $327.47

Structural: Support: 230.62 (structural). Resistance: 300 (max pain Jun26), 327.47 (2w high). EM guardrails: 2d 254/304, 1w 241/316.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+7.7M

DEX: +50.6M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Dealers long gamma (+$7.7M) and long delta (50.6M shares), favoring price stability and upward drift to max pain.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Ticker IV rich vs VIX (19.5) due to event proximity; elevated premium for near-term options.

Term structure: Backwardated: front-month (Jun26) IV highest, lower in back months.

Skew: Put skew elevated; opportunity to sell puts near support or buy call spreads for pin to $300.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Bullish net premium of $40.8M with call volume dominating (P/C 0.88).

Directional prints: 106.4 call 290 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 3777 vs OI 939, vol/OI 4.0, aggressive call buying for June expiry, bullish directional bet. 107.1 call 285 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 2283 vs OI 422, vol/OI 5.4, strong call buying, bullish sentiment. 108.2 call 280 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 2317 vs OI 780, vol/OI 3.0, sustained call accumulation, bullish outlook.

Unusual: 96.6 put 280 ITM 2026-07-10 — Vol 1855 vs OI 451, vol/OI 4.1, high IV, unusual put buying likely hedging or bearish bet. 106.2 call 287.5 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 1101 vs OI 201, vol/OI 5.5, extremely high relative volume, speculative call buying. 104.4 put 250 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol 1224 vs OI 614, vol/OI 2.0, elevated put activity, cautious hedge at out-of-the-money strike.

Risks & Catalysts

!Broader tech sell-off deepens (QQQ -3.3%)

!Spot fails to reclaim $300 and breaks 2d low ($254)

!Unexpected negative catalyst or gamma flip if spot drops sharply

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Call calendar	Moderate	Sell 2026-08-21 $300.00 call / buy 2026-09-18 $300.00 call Why now: High near-term IV (99%+) with earnings in 65 days; positive gamma and bullish flow suggest limited downside. Calendar captures time decay and vol skew.	If stock makes large move past 300 before Aug21 expiry, short leg suffers. Long leg may not compensate if vol stays elevated.
Call calendar	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-08-21 $300.00 call / buy 2026-09-18 $300.00 call Why now: Bullish bias toward $300 resistance; short call caps upside but premium funds long call. Supports recovery thesis.	If stock drops below long strike or fails to rally, long call loses value; short call may need to be rolled if breached.
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-09-18 $300.00/$390.00 call spread Why now: Defined-risk debit spread to profit from spot recovery by Sep expiry; aligned with thesis duration (post-earnings).	Spot fails to rally; time decay hurts if spot stalls; max loss is debit paid.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-09-18 $230.00/$190.00 put spread Why now: Positive gamma/delta support downside; high IV favors premium sale; defined risk suits neutral-to-bullish view.	Sharp sell-off beyond short strike; max loss is width minus credit.
Call diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-07-10 $310.00 call / buy 2026-09-18 $300.00 call Why now: Near-term neutral/bullish tilt; short call decays quickly while long call captures post-earnings move; positive carry from vol term structure.	Spot rallies above short strike early; assignment risk; long call time decay if spot flat.

Top Plays

Call Diagonal

Sell 2026-07-10 $310.00 call / buy 2026-09-18 $300.00 call

Sell Jul10 $310 call, buy Sep18 $300 call; positive carry from vol skew.

Why this play: Best aligns with bullish thesis and vol term structure; short call decays quickly, long call captures post-earnings upside.

Debit: $31.30-$38.25

Max loss: $38.25

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks below $230; roll short call if volatility spikes.

Traders expecting gradual recovery to $300 with limited near-term upside.

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-09-18 $300.00/$390.00 call spread

Buy Sep18 $300/$390 call spread; max loss capped at debit.

Why this play: Defined-risk bullish play directly targeting recovery to $390 by Sep; simple and aligned with thesis duration.

Debit: $20.34-$24.86

Max loss: $24.86

BE: $324.86

Mgmt: Hold to expiry if bullish; close early if spot surpasses $390.

Traders wanting a straightforward bullish bet with limited risk.

Call Calendar

Sell 2026-08-21 $300.00 call / buy 2026-09-18 $300.00 call

Sell Aug21 $300 call, buy Sep18 $300 call; benefits from vol term structure.

Why this play: Captures time decay in near-term high IV while maintaining upside; supports recovery toward $300.

Debit: $10.44-$12.76

Max loss: $12.76

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Monitor gamma; roll if near-term short call risks assignment.

Traders expecting limited near-term upside but longer-term recovery.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF MRVL holds above 254 and bounces from 230.62 support → THEN initiate call diagonal (mrvl_call_diagonal_1) for recovery to $300

IFIF MRVL confirms support at 230.62 with bullish reversal → THEN enter bull call spread (mrvl_bull_call_spread_1) as defined-risk play

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIF MRVL rallies to 300 resistance and stalls (e.g., RSI >70 or rejection) → THEN take partial profits on bull call spread; consider rolling call calendar

Exit Triggers

EXITIF MRVL breaks below 230.62 invalidation level → THEN exit all bullish positions (close diagonal and bull call spread)

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias targeting $300; call diagonal best for vol skew and earnings timeline. Invalidation at 230.62. Monitor tech weakness (QQQ) and 2d range 254-304 for entry.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 23, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.