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MRVL

Marvell Technology, Inc.Close $310.58EOD only
Max Pain
$262.50
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$39.85
12.8% from close
Price Gap
-48.08
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
1.21
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MRVL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 18, 2026 close
MRVL Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 18, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias driven by strong bullish flow, positive GEX, and spot above max pain. High vol suggests event anticipation. Key gamma flip at ~288 provides near-term support, but spot far from mean (55.3%) adds uncertainty.

Confidence:
8 / 10
Base 5, +2 GEX/flow alignment, +1 GEX pinning, -1 spot far from MP, +1 elevated VIX. Score 8/10.
Supports: Bullish flow, positive GEX, spot above MP, high vol regime
Conflicts: Spot 55.3% from MP, gamma flip at 287.5
🔺Bullish flow and GEX alignment
📉Gamma flip risk at ~$288
📊High vol indicates event anticipation
🎯SPX/QQQ rally supportive

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High vol reflected in elevated IV, typical of event-driven moves.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Pinning regime with total gamma positive; flip at ~287.5 from put OI.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Net bullish premium; strong call buying evident.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot above max pain, suggesting upside bias but distant from mean (55.3%).
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Near-term expiry and gamma pin levels (6/18, 6/26, 7/2) drive event-specific positioning.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week
$270.73$350.43
Support 287.5, resistance 350. Gamma flip at 288.
Next 2 weeks
$258.50$362.65
Wider range 258.5-362.65, upside bias intact.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $200 (2026-06-18); $262 (2026-06-26); $260 (2026-07-02)
EM guardrails: 1w $270.73/$350.43
Support: $287.50 · $258.50
Resistance: $330.00 · $362.65
Gamma flip: ~$287.50 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,729 (7.4% below spot)
Structural: Max Pain: $200 (6/18), $262 (6/26), $260 (7/2). Support: 287.5, 258.5. Resistance: 330, 362.65. Gamma flip ~288.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+53.1M

DEX: +71.0M shares

Gamma flip: ~$288 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,729 (7.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX: +$53.1M, DEX: +71.0M shares, gamma flip at ~288 (put OI concentration).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV elevated vs VIX 16, consistent with event premium.

Term structure: Likely backwardated near expiry, with kinks at weekly expirations.

Skew: Put skew rich; consider call spreads for upside exposure.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium +$360M bullish; P/C vol ratio 0.6 calls favored, OI ratio 1.21 puts heavy.

Directional prints: 57.8 call 335 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol 18045, OI 1169, IV 57.8%. OTM call bought, bullish speculation. 54.4 put 320 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol 13549, OI 282, IV 54.4%. Vol/OI 48x; likely put selling (bullish) given net premium.

Unusual: 54.4 put 320 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 48x, ITM put surge; suggests aggressive put selling (bullish). 70.9 put 325 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 41.8x, deep ITM put; likely hedging or bullish put selling. 46.6 put 315 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 35.5x, OTM put; high activity, possibly put selling.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at 288 triggers dealer hedging
!Support break below 258.5
!Event disappointment leads to drawdown

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-07-17 $300.00/$320.00 call spread
Why now: Near-term bullish lean with gamma support at 288; spread limits cost and risk.
Max loss if spot stays below long strike; time decay works against.
Put credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-07-17 $300.00/$290.00 put spread
Why now: Gamma flip at 288 provides support; selling 300/290 put spread collects credit.
Max loss if spot drops below 290; high vol expansion could hurt.

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread $300/$320
Buy 2026-07-17 $300.00/$320.00 call spread
Buy OTM call spread to capture upside on strong flow and positive sentiment.
Why this play: Direct bullish expression with defined risk; aligns with near-term bullish lean and gamma support.
Debit: $7.94-$9.71
Max loss: $9.71
BE: $309.71
Mgmt: Set stop loss at 287.5; target 50% of max gain at ~$5.15.
Traders expecting continued bullish momentum into earnings.
#2
Put Credit Spread $300/$290
Sell 2026-07-17 $300.00/$290.00 put spread
Sell put spread to exploit support level and time decay.
Why this play: Collects premium with support from gamma flip at 288; lower risk alternative.
Credit: $4.28-$5.23
Max loss: $4.77
BE: $294.77
Mgmt: Manage at 287.5 invalidation; take profit at 50% of credit.
Income-seeking traders comfortable with bullish bias.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF MRVL stays above gamma flip 287.5 with bullish price action → THEN buy 2026-07-17 $300/$320 call spread at limit $7.94-$9.71
IFIF MRVL holds above 287.5 and implied vol does not spike → THEN sell 2026-07-17 $300/$290 put spread to collect $4.28-$5.23 credit
Exit Triggers
EXITIF MRVL breaks below 287.5 → THEN exit both spreads at market to limit loss

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias into earnings 70 days out. Key support at gamma flip 287.5. Preferred play: Bull Call Spread $300/$320 for upside; alternative: Put Credit Spread $300/$290 for income. Manage both with invalidation at 287.5. Target 50% of max gain on call spread.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 18, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.