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MRVL

Marvell Technology, Inc.Close $308.88EOD only
Max Pain
$175.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$27.92
9.0% from close
Price Gap
-133.88
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
1.12
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 15, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MRVL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 15, 2026 close
MRVL Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 16, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias through OPEX, supported by strong call flow and positive gamma pinning. Key resistance at $280; breakout to $300+ likely. However, spot is 54% above max pain at $180, posing risk of mean reversion. Thesis is event-specific around 6/18 expiry.

Confidence:
8 / 10
Base 5, +2 for GEX/flow alignment, +1 for positive gamma, -1 for spot distance from MP, +1 for VIX 16 => 8/10.
Supports: Bullish flow, positive gamma, moderate VIX, resistance at $280
Conflicts: Spot far above max pain, high IV, QQQ -1.9% sell-off
📈Bullish flow and GEX alignment supports upside bias
⚠️Gamma flip at $265 is key downside risk
📅Event-specific thesis due to 6/18 OPEX

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV elevated relative to typical MRVL range, driven by event risk from OPEX.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Positive gamma with pinning effect; flip near $265 based on put OI concentration.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Bullish net premium; call buying dominates, aligning with dealer hedging.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot above max pain, suggesting pin support but potential pull risk.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Near-term OPEX (6/18) drives vol and gamma dynamics; thesis tied to expiry.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$255.45$301.90
Key resistance at $280; breakout opens $300+.
Next 1 week
$237.82$319.52
Macro headwinds may cap; support $265.
Next 2 weeks
$229.47$327.87
Post-OPEX vol decay could limit upside.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $180 (2026-06-18); $240 (2026-06-26); $250 (2026-07-02)
EM guardrails: 2d $255.45/$301.90; 1w $237.82/$319.52
Support: $265.00 · $229.47
Resistance: $280.00 · $300.00 · $327.87
Gamma flip: ~$265.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 10,606 (4.9% below spot)
Structural: Support $265 (gamma flip), $229.47; resistance $280, $300, $327.87.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+28.2M

DEX: +64.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$265 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 10,606 (4.9% below spot))

NTM gamma: +$28.2M GEX, +64.1M DEX; gamma flip at ~$265.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: MRVL IV is rich vs VIX, elevated ahead of OPEX; suggests event premium.

Term structure: Front-end elevated; backwardation into 6/18 expiry; kink at that expiry.

Skew: Put skew elevated; consider put spreads to finance upside calls.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net +$91.6M, P/C vol 0.67, bullish.

Directional prints: 112.5 put 185 OTM 2026-07-17 — Vol/OI 12.7, high; likely sold puts (bullish). 113.4 put 287.5 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 8.7, high; likely sold puts (bullish). 108.7 call 310 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 5.4, high; likely bought calls (bullish).

Unusual: 117.8 put 175 OTM 2026-07-17 — Vol/OI 4.5, high premium; likely sold puts (bullish). 120.3 call 325 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 3.5, high; likely bought calls (bullish). 110.4 call 305 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 3.9, high; likely bought calls (bullish).

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below gamma flip at $265 could trigger dealer hedging and sell-off.
!Macro risk from QQQ weakness (-1.9%) may weigh on tech names.
!IV contraction post-OPEX could reduce delta-hedging support.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate
Buy 2026-07-24 $340.00/$390.00 call spread
Why now: Elevated call flow and dealer hedging favor upside; spread reduces cost and limits downside.
Mean reversion from 54% above max pain; QQQ weakness could cap gains. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.
Put credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-07-17 $240.00/$195.00 put spread
Why now: Gamma support at $265; put selling at lower strikes capitalizes on positive bias with defined risk.
IV contraction post-OPEX reduces premium; break below $255 triggers loss.
Bullish risk reversalModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-07-24 $310.00 call / sell 2026-07-24 $225.00 put
Why now: Strong call flow and positive gamma suggest continued upward drift; risk reversal provides leveraged directional exposure.
Uncapped risk on short put if sell-off below $255; IV spike on downside could amplify losses.

Top Plays

#1
Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $240.00/$195.00 put spread
Sell out-of-the-money put spread to collect premium with defined risk.
Why this play: Best risk-reward given gamma support at $265 and net put selling flow.
Credit: $8.66-$10.59
Max loss: $34.41
BE: $229.41
Mgmt: Close if spot breaks below $265.
Bullish traders seeking income with downside protection.
#2
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-07-24 $340.00/$390.00 call spread
Buy call spread to capture upside with defined max loss.
Why this play: Profits from upside while limiting cost; elevated call flow supports.
Debit: $7.15-$8.74
Max loss: $8.74
BE: $348.74
Mgmt: Exit if spot drops below $265 or IV collapses. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.
Traders expecting moderate upside but cautious on volatility.
#3
Bullish Risk Reversal
Buy 2026-07-24 $310.00 call / sell 2026-07-24 $225.00 put
Buy call funded by selling put for leveraged directional exposure.
Why this play: Highest upside but large max loss; suitable for aggressive bullish view.
Debit: $12.44-$15.21
Max loss: $225.00
BE: $225.00
Mgmt: Monitor closely; close put side if spot nears $265.
Aggressive traders with high conviction in continued rally.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFSpot holds above $265 gamma flip on daily close. → Sell MRVL 2026-07-17 $240/$195 put credit spread for entry_range $8.66-$10.59.
IFSpot breaks above $280 with volume. → Buy MRVL 2026-07-24 $340/$390 bull call spread for entry_range $7.15-$8.74.
IFSpot holds above $265 and call IV expands. → Initiate MRVL bullish risk reversal: buy $310 call / sell $225 put for entry_range $12.44-$15.21.
Exit Triggers
EXITSpot breaks below $265. → Close put credit spread and all bullish positions.

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias via gamma support at $265. Lead with put credit spread for defined risk. Add bull call spread on resistance break at $280. Risk reversal for aggressive. Invalidation at $265. Monitor QQQ and IV post-OPEX.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 16, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.