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MRVL

Marvell Technology, Inc.Close $310.58EOD only
Max Pain
$262.50
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$39.85
12.8% from close
Price Gap
-48.08
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
1.21
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MRVL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 18, 2026 close
MRVL Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias over next 1-2 weeks, supported by extremely positive dealer gamma ($21.9M), bullish flow, and price above max pain ($290). High vol regime suggests elevated options premiums, aligning with bullish momentum. However, spot 6.2% above max pain introduces tail risk of pinning. Confidence remains high at 8/10.

Confidence:
8 / 10
Base 5; +2 GEX/flow alignment; +1 positive gamma pinning; -1 spot distance from MP; +1 VIX at 17.
Supports: Bullish flow, positive gamma, price above max pain, strong support at $290 and $252.
Conflicts: High vol regime, spot far from MP, wide 1w range $264-$351 implies uncertainty.
🟢GEX +$21.9M, strongly positive; dealer hedging supports upside.
⚠️Spot 6.2% above MP $290; risk of pinning or pullback to gamma pivot.
📈Bullish flow regime with IV high; call buying dominant.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High vol regime: elevated IV relative to typical, reflecting uncertainty and large price swings.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Pinning regime: positive gamma with no flip risk within 30% below spot; dealer hedging supports current levels.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Bullish flow: net premium positive, put/call ratio low; aggressive call buying dominates.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Above MP: spot ~6.2% above max pain ($290); potential gravitational pull lower but offset by positive gamma.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Regime drivers (gamma, flow, vol) are structural over 1-2 weeks; price ranges extend to 2 weeks; no single-event catalyst.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week
$264.11$351.61
Key support $290 (max pain) and resistance $320 (recent highs).
Next 2 weeks
$252.33$363.38
Breakout above $320 could accelerate; failed hold below $290 may reverse.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $290 (2026-06-26); $265 (2026-07-02); $280 (2026-07-10)
EM guardrails: 1w $264.11/$351.61
Support: $290.00 · $252.33
Resistance: $320.00 · $363.38
Structural: Support: $290 (max pain), $252 (2w low). Resistance: $320 (recent high), $363 (2w high). Gamma flip: none.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+21.9M

DEX: +51.1M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: GEX +$21.9M, DEX +51.1M shares. Strong positive gamma from long calls; no material put OI concentration below spot. Dealers are net long delta, supporting upside.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV is rich relative to VIX (17.28) given the high vol regime; elevated options premiums suggest expected large moves.

Term structure: Term structure likely in contango with elevated near-term IV due to high vol; flattening may occur if vol subsides.

Skew: Call skew elevated due to bullish flow; potential opportunity to sell puts at $252 support or buy calls on pullbacks.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium positive $158M, put/call volume 0.74 (call-skewed), OI ratio 1.11.

Directional prints: 108.1 call 307.5 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 5.3x, OTM call bought aggressively; bullish bet. 109.5 call 305 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 4.5x, OTM call; strong buying pressure. 110.3 call 302.5 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 3.2x, OTM call; bullish flow.

Unusual: 132.1 put 237.5 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 14.8x, deep OTM put; possible hedge or lottery. 125.2 call 405 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 8.9x, OTM call; speculative buy.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot 6.2% above max pain ($290) could lead to pinning or mean reversion.
!Wide 1w range ($264-$351) implies high uncertainty and potential for sharp moves.
!High vol regime could amplify both upside and downside, challenging directional trades.
!No gamma flip but large distance to support; a break below $290 may accelerate selling.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-07-10 $307.50/$370.00 call spread
Why now: Bullish bias, positive dealer gamma, call flow supports upside.
Spot above max pain may pin; mean reversion risk.
Put credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-07-10 $272.50/$235.00 put spread
Why now: High vol inflates put premiums; collect downside protection.
Sharp downside move beyond short strike.
Call diagonalModerate
Sell 2026-07-10 $355.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $320.00 call
Why now: High near-term IV, lower back-month IV; bullish term structure.
Flat move reduces premium; time decay hurts.

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-07-10 $307.50/$370.00 call spread
Buy 307.5/370 call spread, targeting upside with capped loss.
Why this play: Directly bullish, leverages positive gamma and call flow, limited risk.
Debit: $16.83-$20.57
Max loss: $20.57
BE: $328.07
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaches $290; take profit on momentum fade.
Aggressive traders seeking defined-risk bullish exposure.
#2
Call Diagonal
Sell 2026-07-10 $355.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $320.00 call
Sell near-term call, buy later-dated call to benefit from vol decay.
Why this play: Exploits high near-term IV and bullish term structure.
Debit: $29.32-$35.83
Max loss: $35.83
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Roll if spot exceeds short strike; close near expiry.
Volatility premium collectors with directional tilt.
#3
Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-07-10 $272.50/$235.00 put spread
Sell put spread below support, benefiting from bullish bias.
Why this play: Downside protection; collects premium in high vol.
Credit: $7.27-$8.88
Max loss: $28.62
BE: $263.62
Mgmt: Buy back if spot drops below $272.50.
Income-focused traders expecting limited downside.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIf spot pulls back to $290 support and holds → Enter Bull Call Spread: buy 307.5/370 call spread
IFIf spot breaks above $290 with IV stable → Enter Call Diagonal: sell 355 call, buy 320 call
Exit Triggers
EXITIf spot breaks below $290 → Exit all bullish positions; consider Put Credit Spread

Tactical Summary

Bullish 1-2 weeks; dealer gamma $21.9M, call flow positive. Support $290 (max pain), resistance $320/$363. High vol favors defined-risk call spreads. Risk: spot 6% above max pain may pin. Enter Bull Call Spread or Call Diagonal; stop on $290 break.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.