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MRVL

Marvell Technology, Inc.Close $279.70EOD only

Max Pain

$160.00

Next expiry Jun 18, 2026

Expected Move

±$30.78

11.0% from close

Price Gap

-119.70

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

1.10

Balanced positioning

Consensus

7.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MRVL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 12, 2026 close

MRVL Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 11, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 11, 2026. A newer directional report is available for June 12, 2026.

View latest report

Outlook

Bullish bias on strong dealer gamma and sector tailwinds, but spot far above MP warns of reversion. OPEX pinning supports near $255-$300. Confidence 7.5/10.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base 5 +2 GEX/flow aligned +1 pinning +0.5 VIX -1 spot vs MP = 7.5

Supports: Dealer gamma $+36.5M; positive delta; SPY/QQQ rally; resistance $300
Conflicts: Mixed flow; spot above MP; vol high

🟢Strong dealer gamma pinning suggests limited downside near $255

⚠️Spot 10% above MP ($255) increases reversion risk

📈Sector tailwinds (QQQ +3.4%) support bullish bias

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV elevated vs typical range, reflecting event uncertainty ahead of OPEX

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Positive gamma $+36.5M from dealer positioning, pinning expected near $255-$300

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed net premium with no clear directional conviction

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot above max pain ($255) supports bullish outlook but warns of mean reversion

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Upcoming weekly and monthly OPEX (June 12, 18, 26) with concentrated OI

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$265.71$295.71

GEX pinning supports test of $295 resistance

Next 1 week

$245.28$316.13

OPEX pinning near $255-$300; avoid chasing extremes

Next 2 weeks

$232.33$329.08

Wider range $232-$329; no strong bias beyond OPEX

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $255 (2026-06-12); $150 (2026-06-18); $202 (2026-06-26)

EM guardrails: 2d $265.71/$295.71; 1w $245.28/$316.13

Support: $255.00 · $232.33

Resistance: $300.00 · $329.08

Structural: Support $255 (MP) / $232; Resistance $300 / $329; EM guardrails 2d $265-$295, 1w $245-$316

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+36.5M

DEX: +65.7M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Dealers long gamma $+36.5M and delta +65.7M shares, creating pinning dynamics favorable for buyers near support

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV elevated vs VIX (19), implying event premium. Rich but justified by OPEX uncertainty.

Term structure: Front-end elevated, backwardation into next week's OPEX, then flattening

Skew: Put skew elevated; selling puts near $255 support may yield attractive premium

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium positive ($208.8M) with put/call volume ratio 0.81 (call-biased) but OI ratio 1.10 (put-heavy), indicating active call buying.

Directional prints: 92.3 call 290 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol 23,386, OI 6,215, vol/OI 3.8, IV 92.3%. Large call volume suggests bullish opening flow; likely bought. 89.3 call 280 ITM 2026-06-12 — Vol 8,497, OI 2,514, vol/OI 3.4, IV 89.3%. Significant call volume; interpreted as bullish buying.

Unusual: 120.4 put 235 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol 10,948 vs OI 413, vol/OI 26.5, IV 120.4%. Extremely high volume relative to OI; suggests aggressive put buying or short put opening, bearish hedge. 109.7 call 272.5 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol 2,943 vs OI 116, vol/OI 25.4, IV 109.7%. Very high vol/OI ratio; indicates aggressive call buying, bullish.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot reversion to $255 max pain

!Gamma flip on large put selling below $255

!Broad market reversal after strong rally

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-08-21 $300.00/$320.00 call spread Why now: Bullish bias but cautious on reversion; bull call spread caps downside and provides upside exposure through earnings.	Spot reversion to max pain $255 could cause loss of premium; time decay works against spreads.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-08-21 $250.00/$240.00 put spread Why now: Put-heavy OI but call volume surge suggests support at $260; selling put spread above max pain $255 is attractive.	If spot breaks below $255, spread can go ITM quickly; gamma risk increases near expiration.
Call diagonal	Conditional	Sell 2026-06-26 $322.50 call / buy 2026-08-21 $310.00 call Why now: IV elevated (100%+), near-term decay is rapid; back-month call retains gamma for earnings drift.	If stock moves sharply before near-term expiry, short call may cap gains; requires management.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-08-21 $300.00/$320.00 call spread

Buy 300/320 call spread for earnings drift while limiting downside to max loss.

Why this play: Best fit for bullish bias with reversion risk; defined risk and upside exposure through earnings.

Debit: $6.10-$7.45

Max loss: $7.45

BE: $307.45

Mgmt: Exit before earnings or at 50% max gain; stop if spot breaks $255.

Traders bullish but cautious of spot reversion to max pain.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-08-21 $250.00/$240.00 put spread

Sell 250/240 put spread to collect premium on expected support.

Why this play: Captures put-heavy OI support near $260; premium collection above max pain $255.

Credit: $4.03-$4.92

Max loss: $5.08

BE: $245.08

Mgmt: Buy back at 50% max profit; roll if spot nears invalidation $255.

Income-focused traders expecting sideways to bullish bias.

Call Diagonal

Sell 2026-06-26 $322.50 call / buy 2026-08-21 $310.00 call

Sell near-term 322.5 call, buy back-month 310 call to benefit from time decay and upside.

Why this play: Exploits high IV (100%+) and rapid near-term decay, while keeping back-month gamma for drift.

Debit: $26.24-$32.07

Max loss: $32.07

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Adjust if near-term short tested; close before expiration.

Volatility sellers with bullish outlook on longer timeframe.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot holds above $255 support and breaks above $300 resistance, then → Buy 2026-08-21 $300.00/$320.00 call spread.

IFIf spot trades near $255 and bounces, then → Sell 2026-08-21 $250.00/$240.00 put spread.

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot approaches $322.5 near-term short call strike, then → Roll the short 322.5 call up to a higher strike to reduce risk.

Exit Triggers

EXITIf spot breaks below $255 invalidation level, then → Close all bullish positions (bull call spread, put credit spread, call diagonal).

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias with reversion risk above max pain $255. Key support $255, resistance $300/$329. Enter bull call spread on breakout above $300 or put credit spread on bounce at $255. Adjust diagonal if short call tested. Exit all if spot closes below $255.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 11, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.