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META

Meta Platforms, Inc.Close $605.06EOD only
Max Pain
$605.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$12.50
2.1% from close
Price Gap
-0.06
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
32
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.46
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects META options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
META Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 2, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 2, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected ~4/29 (inferred from term structure). IV is elevated for the 5/01 expiration (44.6%), creating a viable IV crush play. Historical data shows a strong beat rate and consistent upside moves, favoring directional long calls or defined-risk bullish spreads over pure volatility selling.

Confidence:
6 / 10
base 5; +1 strong historical beat rate & directional bias; +0 IV elevated for earnings expiration; -0.5 earnings date still inferred, not explicit
Most important: Term structure confirms IV kink at 5/01 (44.6% vs 35.6% on 4/24). Historical EPS beat rate is 75% with a strong directional bias higher.
📅Earnings date still inferred as ~4/29 from IV kink at 5/01 expiration (29 DTE). Confirm via company IR.
📊Historical EPS beat rate is strong (75%), but the one miss in Q3 2025 was severe (-84%). Do not ignore tail risk.
🔄Delta from prior report: IV kink slightly lower (44.6% vs 45.9%), net premium outflow reduced (-$82.8M vs -$133.7M), spot slightly higher. Thesis unchanged.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal (IV 45%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$44.0M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem $-82.8M, P/C 0.67)
Spot vs MP
Above max pain by 3.0% (spot $574.46 vs MP $558)
Gamma flip: ~$5.00 — Extremely low gamma flip at $5 due to massive put OI wall; negligible for near-term spot dynamics. Focus on OI walls at $600C and $590P.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-29 (27 days)inferred

Expected moves:

  • 5/01 (29d): ±$57.35 (10.0%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp kink at 5/01 expiration (44.6% IV) vs 35.6% on 4/24 and 44.0% on 5/08. Confirms earnings priced for that weekly cycle.

Crush estimate: ~8-10 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~35-36% range.

Skew: Mixed flow: heavy net premium outflow at $770P, $680P, but large net inflow at $600C. P/C volume ratio of 0.67 suggests call volume dominance.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: N/A - EM data not provided for past quarters.

Directional bias: 3/4 quarters gapped up post-earnings (12/31/25, 6/30/25, 3/31/25). One significant miss on 9/30/25.

Key Levels

1$590 (major put OI/premium wall)
2$600 (major call OI/premium wall)
3EM: $517.5 - $632.5
4Max Pain ~$557.5 (supportive below spot)

Flow Highlights

Massive $600 Call: Net $23.3M premium inflow. $770 Put: Net $-28.3M premium outflow.

Strong bullish betting at $600 (resistance) and institutional hedging far OTM at $770. Defines a likely earnings upside target and tail-risk hedge.

Unusual 4/06 activity at $565-$575 strikes (volume 2k-4k vs OI <300). IV 24-28%.

Short-dated, near-the-money positioning ahead of weekly expiry, not a primary earnings bet.

Strategies

Bull Put Spread (Defined Risk Directional)
Sell $540 Put / Buy $510 Put 5/01
Credit: $4.50-$6.00
Max loss: $25.50
Max gain: $4.50
BE: $535.50
Trigger: Enter 5-7 days before earnings if spot holds above $570.
Leverages historical upside bias and elevated IV. Strikes are below the expected move lower bound ($517.5) and key $590/$557.5 support levels, providing a buffer.
Outperforms: Stock is flat or rises post-earnings (historical bias). IV crush provides additional edge.
Underperforms: Stock gaps down below $540, especially on a surprise miss.
Long Call Calendar (Volatility & Directional)
Buy $600 Call 5/01 / Sell $600 Call 4/24
Max loss: Debit paid
Max gain: Capped by short call
BE: Complex; benefits from IV differential and spot near/above $600 by 4/24.
Trigger: Enter 10-14 days before earnings.
Targets a breakout above the $600 call wall. Selling the nearer-dated call at the same strike helps finance the long earnings-dated call and capitalizes on the steep IV term structure (35.6% vs 44.6%).
Outperforms: Stock grinds higher towards $600 into earnings and IV expands further on the long leg.
Underperforms: Stock falls or stays flat; suffers from IV crush on long leg and time decay on short leg.
Iron Condor (Pure Premium Sale)
Sell $540 Put / Buy $510 Put // Sell $630 Call / Buy $660 Call 5/01
Credit: $8.00-$10.00
Max loss: $22.00
Max gain: $8.00
BE: 548 - 632
Trigger: Enter 3-5 days before earnings.
Capitalizes on elevated IV and expected crush. Wide wings relative to EM provide a margin of safety. Asymmetric risk given bullish history favors the call side.
Outperforms: Stock stays within a ~±7.3% range ($548-$632), well inside the EM bounds.
Underperforms: Stock gaps beyond short strikes, particularly below $540 given historical upside bias makes the put side riskier.

Risk Assessment

!Gap Risk: 10.0% expected move is significant ($57). A repeat of the Q3 2025 surprise miss could cause a gap down through key supports at $590/$557.5.
!IV Crush: Estimated 8-10 vol point drop will punish long volatility positions entered at elevated IV.
!Liquidity: Excellent (2.4M+ OI). No issues trading standard strikes.
!Sizing: Size condors/spreads for max loss given the binary event. Avoid over-leverage on defined-risk plays.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory on 5/01 expiration as date approaches
?Spot price action relative to $590/$600 OI walls
?Any unusual OTM call buying above $630 for breakout clues
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 2, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.